Malaysian Derivatives

-=I'm being paid to make money, not excuses=- PLEASE BOOKMARK THIS PAGE FOR YOUR DAILY AND WEEKLY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS. Your source of trading information on the Malaysian Derivative Market. This blog is dedicated as the source of information for trading in the Malaysian derivative market - mainly on FKLI and FCPO contracts. The views posted here are the opinions of the author's only, and are not meant as recommendations to buy or sell futures and options contracts.

Monday, 30 April 2012

Daily Summary 30 April 2012

Good evening traders!

How did you all do today? What a great day to trade! We expected today to have more than 10+ points ranges which did in fact materialize.

This is the FKLI 30 mins chart.

We traded to the following levels today. Kindly take note that we have been trading the May contract since last Friday.

Opened: 1555.00
High: 1572
Low: 1555
Closed: 1565.50

Cash Index traded to:

Opened: 1570.46
High: 1574.49
Low: 1568.58
Closed: 1570.61

Our trading levels for this morning was:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1569, 1572, 1575, 1578
Lower Support: 1565, 1562, 1558, 1555

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1571, 1573, 1576, 1578
Lower Support: 1563, 1561, 1558, 1553

Wow.. we had a great day today. May futures opened right at our last level of support of 1555 and bounced up from there. My colleague who park an order to buy at 60 actually got a fill at 55! What a nice trade!

As for me, I went long at 61 and price went up to 65 right after that. But the thing was, I was sure this thing was going to run more! So I didn't take profit and trail my stop to 1561.5 instead which was 1 tick profit. By doing so, if price came reversing down, the most I would lose is RM5 only as the 1 tick would cover my cost. And the best case was that price would continue to trend upwards.

But neither happened today. In fact, price came down to 61.5 exactly at my stop, then continue its march up to 69! Grrrr!!! hahaha.. damn.. I actually was in the process of clicking to change the stop order when it hit.. and reverse and continued the up move.. I could have easily caught 8-10 points today just from the morning trade, but ended up with just 1 tick profit. Lesson learned from this is that if I'm sure of the trend, do not trail my stop too early even though this would reduce my risk tremendously.

Ok, then price slowly made its way up to 69.50. One of my trader Teo took a nice short here at 69 and we added another at 68.50. Price sunk and we exited one contract at 66.50 and one at 66.

Lunch opened higher at 68.50. I was hoping price would come down a bit as I had park to buy at 65. So no fill for this one and I cancelled the order. Price then chopped aroung the 66.5-68.50 level. Here, Teo took another short at 68. I did not make any trades here.

Then the Cash Index jumped which caused the May contract to spike up to 72 too which was our second level of resistance posted this morning. I took a short here at 72 and closed when price reached 69.5 for a 2.5 points scalp. Had I followed my strategy from this morning to trail to 71.50, I would have been able to ride this trade down to 64 late into closing time. Teo took his profits for the 68 short at 67. Although he took some heat, he was sure that prices would be coming down so it was just a momentary scare. Had price kept going up, we would have cut the position and the most he would have lost was the profits made in the morning.

But everything turned out fine and everyone's happy. :)

So.. great day indeed. Tomorrow is a public holiday so no trading. We will be back on Wed which we will have economic reports every day right into Friday so expect trading range to be much lesser than today.

So we'll see you all on Wednesday morning!

---

Oh ya, regarding the weekly range for the FKLI. Here it is:

Upper Weekly Range: 1585
Lower Weekly Range: 1555

Ciao and good night all!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Good Morning Traders,

Lets get started.

We have some numbers to be released, but not major ones and their ranking in terms of how much it would effect the market is medium. So we still have to be watchful for choppiness as tomorrow is also a banking holiday.

Let us look at how the US market closed last Friday night. If you have not read our weekly updates on the S&P and the CME grains, you can click here.

The Dow closed up 24 points or 0.18% to close at 13,228
The S&P500 closed up 3 points or 0.24% to close at 1,403

The Nasdaq closed up up 19 points or 0.61% to close at 3,069

As of this writing, we are now trading at 1400 in the S&P up 1.5 points from the last close. It remains to be seen if we can continue this move up after breaking upside from the flag pattern. If so, then perhaps our local market can have some relief from the recent down swing too. There is not much action yet in premarket trading so we will let more price play out to give us a clue later on.

Let us move back to our local market.

-------

Guys, I will do the daily support and resistance levels first, and then come back and finish the weekly ranges later on as I do not have enough time this morning.

FKLI

Well well.. last week's bar made a higher low on the daily chart, which is a good thing.. Perhaps we can have a bounce back to test the 20ema soon? Or would traders and investors be spooked after the Bersih last Saturday and continue to liquidate their stocks holdings all the way to election time? This remains to be seen.

One of the dangers of predicting a direction before price has even move is that you are right 50/50 of the time. You will increase the probability of your trading success if you wait for more confirmation from price before entering the market although you can have a bias as to where the market would go. But ultimately, you still need to know our levels and trade according to price action.

If I were to look at the daily chart, price seems a bit far from the 20ema so I am in favor of a fade back to test it in the coming days. After that, I will probably look for a spot to swing a short if we are not able to break and close above the 20ema.

In the Weekly chart, we are trading above the 20ema still and the low of last week actually went down to test it at near 1555. There is a possibility that we might go back down to test the 20ema too in the weekly so we have to be watchful of that too.

In any case, we will follow the price action and trade according to our support and resistance levels. If you are planning to buy, make sure it is at where support is holding nicely and if selling, at where resistance is holding nicely.

Here are the trading levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1569, 1572, 1575, 1578
Lower Support: 1565, 1562, 1558, 1555

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1571, 1573, 1576, 1578
Lower Support: 1563, 1561, 1558, 1553

Trade safe and make some money!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

P/s: I'll come back to correct the typos later. Market opening soon! Ciao!

Sunday, 29 April 2012

Weekly Updates: S&P500, Soybean Oil, Soybean, Wheat and Corn Futures

Good evening traders,

Wow.. it seems like a lot has happened in our country this weekend.

Alright let us switch our focus back to next week and whats in store for all of us.

We will first look at the S&P500 Futures.

Let us first look how we closed last week:

Opened 1372.25 from last close of 1375
High: 1403
Low: 1354
Closed: 1399

Our levels for last weekend's update was:

The possible upper weekly range is: 1400
The possible lower weekly range is: 1328

The S&P on Monday went down to test the low of the flag but closed near the middle of its bar. Then on Tuesday, we traded to a positive inside day bar which started the rally towards the end of the week to break upside from the flag pattern.

We closed the week as a nice big green healthy bar. Our possible high of the week which we posted last weekend was 1400. Price actually traded beyond that briefly and closed the week 1399 which was just a point away from our weekly range.

Its interesting to see where we will trade next week as a positive move in the US would slow down the market decline currently facing us here in the local market. As we broke out of the flag pattern on the upside, we will assume that this is the direction where the market wants to go.

But at the same time, we will want to be alert because it is not unusual for price to break out of a pattern and then quickly pull back into the pattern. If this were to happen, many of the new early bulls would be caught long and would have to cut their losses at some point which would accelerate the pull back into the flag pattern. We will let price action guide us in any case.

I will be updating you on the movements daily through our morning updates so be on the watch out for that too.

Here are the ranges for next week:

The possible upper weekly range is: 1420
The possible lower weekly range is: 1354

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Alright lets move on to the CME grains which can effect our FCPO.

We will start with Soybean Oil Futures first.

Alright lets see how we closed for the week:

Opened 56.18 from last close of 56.12
High: 56.36
Low: 55.33
Closed:55.61

Our levels for last week was:

The possible upper weekly range is: 57.50
The possible lower weekly range is: 55.20 and an outside chance of reaching 54.80.

So.. we traded to a small inside bar last week. We did go down to test near the low of our weekly range but only reached 55.33.

A small bar basically means a one bar trading range in a weekly chart and on a daily chart, it looks like a flag pattern. What usually happens after a small inside bar? Well, 2 things can happen. 1) we continue to consolidate and gather energy, and 2) we break out from the small bar. An upside break above the small bar means a bullish break and a downside break below the low of the small bar means a bearish break.

At this moment, we closed the week as a red bar. Soybean Oil was one of our two stronger contracts but last week saw that we are pausing for the next move. We we are not able to test the top of the triangle again last week, this will mean that this top triangle trend line will be a major resistance again. But with the Soybean, Wheat and Corn closing strongly for the week, perhaps we can have an upside breakout here next week?

Here is the weekly range for next week:

The possible upper weekly range is: 57
The possible lower weekly range is: 55

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Soybean Futures

Alright, lets look at how our star grain performer did last week.

Opened: 1450.25 from last close of 1458.75
High: 1506.75
Low: 1437.75
Closed: 1494.25

Our weekly range for last week was:

The possible upper weekly range: 1480 and an outside chance to test 1500.
The possible lower weekly range: 1402

Wow.. Soybean remains strong and the rally is still on! We closed the week as a nice green healthy bar!

Price actually went up to test our upper weekly range of 1500 and traded beyond it to touch a high of 1506.75 and came back down to close at 94.25.

I think that Soybean's strong performance has held up the price of most of the grains product that we are following last week. Soybean posted new recent highs while Wheat and Corn recovered from the lows.

I want to see how this contract perform because if it continues to perform strongly followed by the other grains product, perhaps we can have an upside breakout for our FCPO from the recent range.

Here are the possible weekly range for next week.

The possible upper weekly range: 1525
The possible lower weekly range: 1437

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Wheat Futures

Opened: 623 from last close of 616.50
High: 655.5
Low: 621.25
Closed: 649.25

Our weekly range for last week was:

The possible upper weekly range: 646
The possible lower weekly range: 600 should hold and next is 591

Wheat rallied from the low at the lower triangle trend line and actually closed into the smaller triangle pattern. It traded past our upper weekly range which I think is a bullish signal. We closed the week as a green healthy bar which is a good thing. Wheat was one of the weaker performer among all the grains product which was testing the support below.

If Wheat and Corn can continue to recover from the lows in addition with the strong performance in our Soybean and a upside breakout from our Soybean Oil, then perhaps our FCPO can break upwards and go up too.

So we will follow the performance of this contract closely with the other grains product too.

Here are the weekly ranges for next week:

The possible upper weekly range: 670
The possible lower weekly range: 650

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Corn Futures

Corn traded to these weekly levels:

Opened: 603.25 from last close of 601
High: 629.5
Low: 599
Closed: 626.5

Our weekly ranges for last week was:

The possible upper weekly range: 640
The possible lower weekly range: 583

We traded within our weekly range and closed as a green healthy bar too. This is a breath of relief because Corn was the weakest performers among all the other grains product that we are following.

If you look at the chart, you will see that this week's range was almost the exact identical of last week's. This is called a twin reversal bar which is quite a bullish signal. Will we be able to close back into the triangle pattern? This remains to be seen and that's what I would hope for too! Because if it does, and the other grains product rally too, FCPO will have a good chance for an upside breakout from the recent range too.

Here are the weekly range for next week:

The possible upper weekly range: 665
The possible lower weekly range: 605

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I will update the FKLI and FCPO weekly and daily range tomorrow morning.

So goodnight and talk to you all tomorrow morning!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Friday, 27 April 2012

Daily Summary - 27 April 2012

Good evening traders,

The weekend is here huh? Time really does seem to fly these days..

Alright lets proceed to our daily summary.

We traded to these following levels today:

FKLI

Opened at 1576.50 from previous close of 1574.50
High: 1577.50
Low: 1566
Close: 1569.50

Cash Index

Opened at 1580.18 from previous close of 1579.69
High: 1580.18
Low: 1566.55
Close: 1567.80

Wow.. what a day.. We expected today to be a range trading day, but also asked traders to be alert for a break out as we traded to a small bar in the last two trading days.

We opened at 67.50 and briefly went up to 77.50. After cash opened at 80, then went down to 75 immediately, which was par with April's contract at that time, I suspected we would have a break out. I park an order to sell at 75 when price was trading at 74.50-75. I could have hit the market at 74.50 but I didn't.

I never got filled, and price sank and sank to 67. I tried to save 1 tick and it caused me to lose the whole ride down. But all was not lost tho. After price went down, one of my traders Teo got filled at 68 while another account did not. It was a good bounce trade as price did went up to the 70-70.50 range for a nice scalp.

Price pulled back slightly to 69-69.50 after that and up to touch to 72 before lunch. We opened at 69 during lunch and sank down to make new lows at 66 for April contract and 63 for May contract. We did have another trade in the afternoon long 68 and went out at 68.50 and 69.

The chart on the daily chart made a lower low, so I am in favor for it to go back to test the 20ema.. but with the Bersih rally tomorrow and all, I think it is better to soh (sit on hand) and see what happens next week.

So wishing everyone a great weekend ahead! I will post the weekend update this Sunday and the trading levels on Monday morning before market opens!

Ciao traders!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates 27 April 2012 - Daily Trading Levels

Morning Traders,

How is everyone doing? Alright lets get started for the last trading for the week!

First we will look at how the US market closed:

The Dow closed up 114 points or 0.87% to close at 13,205
The S&P500 closed up 9 points or 0.67% to close at 1,400

The Nasdaq closed up up 21 points or 0.69% to close at 3,051

S&P: Alright. The US market reacted positively to the numbers and positive company earnings and closed up for another day. We broke upside out of the Flag Pattern of the last two week's consolidation and hit the 1400 and closed there. We are now trading at 1391.50 down 5.25 points as of 8.12 am which is just outside of the flag pattern of 90. Tonight we have another round of numbers so we will factor that in for trading our local market today.

Lets look what is in store for us.

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FKLI Daily Chart

Well well well.. this week just went past in the blink of an eye, didn't it? Alright we traded to a small bar yesterday in a tight range. I wonder if today will be the same as it is a Friday?

Usually after a big and violent move, price tends to pause for a while just like now to pause and gather some energy before deciding to break out from this pause. I would like for price to bounce back higher so that I can swing a short from there. But of coz, the market does not act according to my wish and wants. That is why we will trade by following its price action and look for a set up to enter a trade.

Since it is a Friday, I am in favor of a range trading still as we will have economic report tonight again. Avoid buying the top and selling the bottom of the range like yesterday unless you are targeting to trade a breakout. As we traded to a small range in the past two days, you might want to look for an opportunity to trade a break out. It might, or might not break today, but you just want to be on the alert in case it does so that you can take advantage of it. I'm more in favor of a selling the top of the range and buying the bottom of the range trades. If you are planing to trade a breakout from the range, you do not want to be caught buying within the range so place your buy and sell stops just outside of the range area. If you are right and a breakout with strength occurs, then it will take your stop orders and take you into the trade too. Take your profits quickly as Friday's price action usually is quite choppy.

Here are the trading levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1578, 1580, 1583
Lower support: 1575, 1572, 1570

Cash Index:

Upper Resistance: 1583, 1585, 1587
Lower Support: 1580, 1576, 1573

Trade safe and make some dough! Ciao!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Thursday, 26 April 2012

Daily Summary 26th April 2012

Good evening traders,

Lets proceed with today's summary.

We traded to these following levels today:

FKLI

Opened: 1576.50 from 1576.50 last close
High: 1577.00
Low: 1573.00
Close: 1574.50

Cash Index

Opened: 1580.33 from 1579.35 last close
High: 1583.08
Low: 1577.71
Close: 1579.69

---

Our trading levels for today was:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1580, 1583, 1585. 1588
Lower Support: 1578, 1575, 1572, 1569

Cash Index:

Upper Resistance: 1583, 1587, 1585
Lower Support: 1580, 1576, 1574, 1571

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Today the Cash Index traded pretty much within our levels. Price could not break our first level of resistance of 83 and touched a high of 83.08. Price first tested the first level of support of 80 and that too held nicely. It finally broke and went down to test our second level of support at 76 but never went that far and only tested the 77.71 level.

The April futures contract never gaped up today and opened the same as yesterday's close. the high of the day was 77 which was below the first level of support. Always remember that when price is trading below a support, that support automatically turns into resistance in technical analysis. It is the same for all market traded.

Price was very choppy to say the least. We expected today to be range trading and advice for traders not to be caught buying the top and selling the bottom which was the right strategy.

We did park an order to buy at 71.50 today, but never got filled, which was ok. What we were trying to do was, buy the bottom of the range, and sell the top of the range, which is the right strategy to apply during range trading session.

In the afternoon, on one of my trader's account, we tried to scalp the FCPO instead and for the second time running, was not successful at it. Day trading the FCPO definitely many times harder than day trading the FKLI. Do you all agree? Trading the FCPO will have a higher probability of success in swing trading.

The FKLI may not be an exciting contract like the FCPO, and the ranges may be small, but money can still be made. Maybe not big money, but smaller and safer, which is my preference.

However, if you manage to catch a nice swing of the FKLI futures, that's where you can see the big money in trading the FKLI. I am still in search of a short swing position in the FKLI. Hopefully we will have a bounce back near the 20ema, and then we will see what we can do from there.

----

Tomorrow is Friday, and we have some report as well. We will see how the US market perform tonight and post the trading levels for tomorrow before the market open.

Good night all, catch ya'll tomorrow morning!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 26th April 2012 - Daily Trading Levels

Morning Traders,

Lets get cracking!

The US market closed as follows:

The Dow closed up 89 points or 0.69% to close at 13,091
The S&P500 closed up 19 points or 1.36% to close at 1,391

The Nasdaq closed up -68 points or 2.30% to close at 3,030

Alright.. in line with good earnings has pushed the market in the US up since premarket yesterday afternoon. The FOMC meeting was also in line with trader's expectation. The S&P closed up quite strongly. We are now trading at 1387 as of this writing at 8.09am down 0.25 points and prices are still hovering at the top of last night range. However, do take note that we are still trading within the consolidation/flag pattern on the daily and the weekly chart between the range of 88-60s. There was no break out last night yet.. perhaps tonight? or perhaps not? We will see. We have unemployment claims and pending home sales number tonight which might move the market. So if a good number comes out including more positive earnings and news may just give the market an extra breath to break up. If not, then look for us to chop all the way back to the low of the flag again in the coming days. We will let price action be our guide.

Lets move on to our local market.

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FKLI

Whats in store for us? Interesting chart to be honest. With the US market closing up, I would think that we would gap up even if its just a small gap. If so, then we will break the minor trend line above the previous 6 day's price action already. Which is a good small bounce back to test the 20ema.

It remains to be seen how committed the buyers are in this current market situation but we have now closed below the 20ema quite convincingly in the Daily chart. I think a test back to the 20ema is quite reasonable. Usually when price pulls too far away from the 20ema, it will attempt to fade back to test it before continuing the down move or breaking up and closing above the 20ema to resume the uptrend. Honestly, I am more in favor of first choice. But no matter what, we will let price action be our guide.

If you are looking to buy, do it at where support is holding and if looking to sell, make sure it is where at resistance are holding. Today is likely to be range trading day with the numbers coming up tonight. So don't be caught buying the top of the range and selling the bottom of the range UNLESS you are trading a break out. If you are trading the breakout, look to see if where is enough strength in the market to carry price to reach your target.

Today's trading levels are:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1580, 1583, 1585. 1588
Lower Support: 1578, 1575, 1572, 1569

Cash Index:

Upper Resistance: 1583, 1587, 1585
Lower Support: 1580, 1576, 1574, 1571

On a side note, it would be interesting to know that the spike down on Tuesday just stop smack right on top of the 20ema in the weekly chart of the FKLI.

I will post the chart later in the evening.

Trade safe all! Make some dough!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

p/s: be back to change the typos later.. market opening soon.. ciao!

Wednesday, 25 April 2012

Daily Summary - 25th April 2012

Good evening traders!

I had half day training today.. but still got back to the office before the afternoon session opened.. However, I did not make any trades today..

Here is the price action for today.

This is the FKLI Daily Chart. What do you guys think? We did trade at a higher level from yesterday.. but is the danger over now? US futures seems to be pointing back up as bullish news from AAPL's (Apple) is leading the market up, but we are still basically still trading inside of the flag pattern as for now.

The FKLI traded to these following level today:

Opened 1578.50 from 1576.50
High: 1578.50
Low: 1571.50
Closed: 1576.50

With the FOMC meeting tonight, we expected today to trade in a small range.

Morning, price opened at the high and traded down to 72.50 and then bounced back to the 75-76 right through lunch.

After I came back to the office in the afternoon, I noticed the 3 bars in the half hourly chart that traded in 1 point range of 75-76. I was wondering that, if I had been watching the price action since morning, would I have placed a buy stop above at 77 and a sell stop at 74 there?

Maybe, maybe not. In any case, because I missed most of the price action in the morning and feel a bit not in line with the market coming in mid way, I decided to sit on hands for the day.

We broke out from the 75-76 range right after lunch to test a low of 71.50. Then one of my trader Teo parked a buy order at 70.50 expecting today to be a choppy day and a break out unlikely. The strategy is a good one and his analysis was good as well. Although price never reached his entry price, it did eventually rallied to 77.50 before closing at 76.50

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What to expect for tomorrow:

This is the Cash Index chart.

Tomorrow we will have Unemployment Claims and Pending Home Sales report, both big numbers. Expect price action to be choppy and range bound. See the minor trendline over the past 5 day's price action? We have yet to cross, and close above it conclusively. If the US market do close up a lot tonight, then we might break that tomorrow to go back to test the 20ema.

And if yes, then we will have to make a decision if this is just a bounce from the recent breakdown or would price recover fully and resume the up trend again.

I am in favor for a bounce back to the 20ema, before continuing the down move again. So I will be looking if there is opportunity to swing a short move using May's contract.

So we will see how the US market perform tonight and I'll post the trading levels tomorrow morning.

Have a great rest and see you all tomorrow.

Ciao!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Tuesday, 24 April 2012

No morning updates tomorrow - attending training in Bursa

Dear Traders,

Sadly, I won't be able to post the usual morning update tomorrow with all the levels as I am attending a training in the morning in Bursa office.

I also don't have my charts with me so I can't post the levels for you tomorrow too.

Usually, I want to look at how the US market traded the night before to give you a more accurate levels to trade. So without more information, I am afraid I can't do much here.

I will be back to the office in the afternoon so I'll see what I can do then.

Trade safe and make some dough.

Ciao all!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Daily Summary - 24 April 2012

Good evening traders!

Wow, what a day, again! How did everyone do today?

This was the exact replicate of the price action of yesterday! For the first 10 minutes at least!

Alright lets proceed with the day's summary. I left my pen drive at the office again so no pretty chart for you all today.. apologies.. haha..

We traded to the following levels today:

FKLI:

Opened at 1568.00 from yesterday's close of 1574.50
High: 1577
Low: 1558
Closed: 1576.50

Cash Index:

Opened 1580.57 from yesterday's close of 1583.80
High: 1583.29
Low: 1579.04
Close 1582.28

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Our trading levels for this morning was:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1578, 1580, 1583, 1585, 1587
Lower support: 1575, 1572, 1569, 1564

Cash Index:

Upper Resistance: 1587, 1590, 1592
Lower Support: 1583, 1580, 1576, 1573

For the Index, we traded between the two lower support of 83 and 80 throughout most of the day. We did in fact touch a low of 79 briefly but the second support held nicely.

As for the April's futures contract, we opened lower at 68, and then a big sell order came in and overwhelmed the levels and replicated what happened yesterday. We traded down to 58 in a flash! But today was a good day.. coz we were able to take opportunity of this flash drive down!

During matching just before the market opened, we noticed that the matching went as low as 44s level which was quite scary. What we did was, if it would drop so quickly and so much again without any valid reasons, we knew that it would not last.

So what we did was park a limit buy at 60. Right after market opened at 68, as we expected, price went down to touch 58, which filled our long orders and went back up to 68.50 immediately right after that. I exited with a cool 8 points profit from the trade. :)

Then we traded up to a high of 75 after that. One of my trader friend Teo had wanted to sell at the top here at about 74.50 but he did not do take the trade. If he did, it would have been a good scalp as price went down to 70.50.As for me, I wanted to buy when price tested the 70s level but in the end, did not page any order here as well because both of my traders are looking for price to go lower. I have already achieved more than the daily target so I did not have to take additional risk.

Price was pretty flat after lunch opened and we did go back up to test the 74-74.50 highs and a pull back to about 72.50. Towards the end of the day after cash closed, it was expected that if price broke out of the 75 high, it would spike up, which it did and touch a high of 77. I did not take this trade too but it is ok with me. It was almost the end of the trading hour already anyway.

So, a good day here and I hope the daily levels that I'm posting are helpful to all of you as it is for me.

Ciao all!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

24 April 2012 - Daily Trading Levels

Morning Ladies and Gents,

Alright lets get started.

Lets look at how the US market closed last night.

The Dow closed down 102 points or -0.78% to close at 12,927
The S&P500 closed down 12 points or -0.84% to close at 1,367

The Nasdaq closed down -30 points or -1.0% to close at 2,970

Wow.. looking at the closing, we actually recovered a bit of the loss during the cash hour trading! At one point during the premarket trading in the afternoon, the Dow was already down -120s.

Anyway, the S&P futures could not break the 54 level of support yet so the flag formation is still intact. But we were real close to breaking it though, so I would be watchful for the coming price action in this contract as a downside break out may accelerate the downside break in our local market too.

From today until Friday, we will have economic reports in the US every single day.

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Whats in store for us:

This is the KLCI index daily chart. So we finally closed below the 20ema eh? Just yesterday we were just knocking on the front door but have yet to close below it. Do you all know when was the last time we did this?

The last time should be around November of last year. During that time, we closed below with energy like now. But after about a week, we traded back up and traded above the 20ema in a choppy range before the nice rally from Jan 1 onwards.

So, what can you guys make of this? Will this close below the 20ema be significant or not? I guess it really depends on your view does it not? We have some traders here short all the way from up above when price could not break 1600 again last week. While we also have traders being caught long as well.

As for me, with the election coming and all, I would want to look for an opportunity to swing a short as long as we maintain below the 20ema. If the swing position doesn't materialize, then I will be scalping the daily levels as usual lah.

So trade carefully. We have yet to break the flag pattern in the S&P so I think we might recover a bit of the losses today perhaps? Or would some large institution get spooked by the price action yesterday and start to come on and dump more shares? We will see. Trade your levels carefully. Buy where support is holding and short where resistance is holding.

Here are the levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1578, 1580, 1583, 1585, 1587
Lower support: 1575, 1572, 1569, 1564

Cash Index:

Upper Resistance: 1587, 1590, 1592
Lower Support: 1583, 1580, 1576, 1573

Trade safe all! Make some dough!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

ps: I'll come back to correct the typos later. :)

Monday, 23 April 2012

Daily Summary - 23 April 2012

Good evening traders,

Lets get rolling with the summary today.

What a day. We expected today to be a nice range for trading and indeed it was. I hope many of you made lots of money today.

Wow.. does this smells like things are gonna get ugly real soon? we started the morning saying that things are still ok, but we are very near to closing below the 20ema. So here it is. We have really closed below the 20ema now! *drumroll!*

Election time? Doom's day? Well.. it definitely is if you are long stock. That's the beauty of trading futures. Doesn't matter if the market is up or down. You can go either direction!

Alright lets look at the price action for today.

FKLI:

We opened at 1587.50
High: 1587.50
Low: 1572
Closed: 1574.50

Cash:

Opened at 1591.87
High: 1591.85
Low: 1580.28
Closed: 1581.64

We opened at 87.50 and BAM! we were at 73 in a blink of an eye. Stops being hit from a big order. We recovered very quickly to 82.5-84 level right after that.

I thought this was a good opportunity to short but I waited a bit too long because when I keyed in an order to sell at 81, price dropped to 79 right after that. Yeah, its this kind of day! We went down to test 74.50 after that.

Then we bounced up to the 77-80 level and traded in a tight range right through lunch.

I parked a buy order at 73 for two of my traders during this time. Then I got distracted and went to look at FCPO contracts. Freakin huge mistake.

But cut a long story short, I really wanted to trade the FKLI on a day like this and I got distracted. Lesson learned. Doesn't matter what the cause was. As a trader bringing my game to the next level, I take full responsibility for the result.

Lastly when price went back down to test the 73 level and touched a low of 72, I canceled that order. Price touched 72 and quickly bounced to touch 75-75.50. See how your mind can get messed up due to other distractions? But its ok. New day, fresh start tomorrow!

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What to expect tomorrow.

Well.. looks like things might start to get ugly soon friends.. the possibility is really in the cards now. The breakout of the flag for the S&P seems to be on the downside.. and if that is so, I think we will have a swing low too. If you would look at the daily chart of the KLCI Index, we finally closed below the 20ema conclusively in a long time!

With the election coming and all, I think we need to be careful of how we are going to trade for now. I will be looking for opportunity to swing a short position from here. If there are non, then I will continue to scalp the price action as usual.

So, I'll update the levels again tomorrow. Trade safe all!

Ciao!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Midday Update

Afternoon Traders,

Wow what a morning! We opened at 87.50 and right after that, huge selling orders came in resulting in stops being triggered all the way to 73. We quickly recovered ti the 82-84 range after that.

Sort of like the flash crash in May 2010 albeit a mini one. Then we formed a big candle with a long tail.

I then set an order to short at 81, but while I was keying in the order, price blew past suddenly to 79 and then touched a low or 74.50. It then recovered to about 80 and is trading around this small range as of now and closed 78.50 for lunch.

Interesting day indeed!

Trade safe all!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

23 April 12 - Daily Support and Resistance Levels and Weekly Range - FKLI, KLCI & FCPO

Morning Traders,

Its now 8.06am so lets get started.

Lets look at how the US market closed last Friday night.

The Dow closed up 65 points or 0.65% to close at 13,029
The S&P500 closed up 2 points or 0.12% to close at 1,379

The Nasdaq closed down -7 points or -0.24% to close at 3,000

Alright last Friday was options expiry and the market was trading in a small range too. The S&P was trading within a range of 12 points, which is not that unusual for a Friday with options expiry.

This morning in the pre-market opening, the S&P gap down slightly during opening but have pretty much covered that gap and is now just down 0.75 points at 1374.50. There should be support at 1365 as the trend line is there. If you have not read our weekly update, please click here.

There will be no economic report tonight so I think we will have a nice range to trade today. Alright lets move on to our local market.

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FKLI - Daily chart

Alright.. so how will we do this week? The KLCI closed as a red bar for last week. The S&P is due for a breakout from the flag formation and it remains to be seen which way the break out will be. As of now, we will trade accordingly to how the market is dictating to us.

We still have a few levels of support below to break through and we are trading close to the 20 ema on the daily chart. Until we trade past below the 20ema and remain closed below it conclusively, I will hold the opinion that the general uptrend is still intact although it seems that we are quickly approaching that level soon.

So, with no numbers today, we may have a nice range to trade today so trade carefully. Buy at where support are holding and if you are looking to sell, do it near where resistance is holding nicely.

Here are the levels for FKLI today.

Upper Resistance: 1588, 1590, 1592, 1595
Lower Support: 1585, 1580, 1578

KLCI

Upper Resistance: 1595, 1600
Lower Support: 1590, 1587, 1583

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Weekly Update

Refer to the next KLCI weekly chart below.

It seems like we have been trying to break the 1600s level over and over again but could not seem to do it, even when the whole regional was rallying during last week.

I wonder if it is due to people selling some of their positions with the election looming over the horizon taking advantage of the current high price now. If that is the case, we might see more selling to come perhaps?

We are still trading above the 20ema in the weekly chart so I am still of the opinion that the general trend is still up. But I would be wary of a downside break if the US market does the same.

So trade carefully. Support are still holding for now, but once that break, we might see a downside swing.

The weekly range for KLCI for me are:

Upper Weekly Range: 1602
Lower Weekly Range: 1580

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FCPO

So, what to expect for our FCPO this week? If you haven't read our weekly update on the 4 CME grains namely Soybean, Soybean Oil, Wheat and Corn, you can click here now. These other grains product have a close relationship with our FCPO contract. It is not surprising at all that our FCPO's late rally last Friday evening coincided with the rally of these grains product in the pre-market session.

So, I think we have closed the gap from the big gap from 3 weeks ago already. And since then, we have also broken the bear trend line in the daily chart during last Friday's rally. Usually after a trend line is broken, price will attempt to test the previous trend's extreme before establishing the new trend.

For me, should the Soybean Oil and Soybean perform and over come their resistance, and Wheat and Corn bounce from the lows, I think our FCPO will have upside potential too. But if these CME grains are performing poorly, it will have a drag on our FCPO prices too.

So, I will follow closely these other grains product and will update here if there are any big changes.

Here are the weekly range for the FCPO contract:

Upper Weekly Range: 3600
Lower Weekly Range: 3440

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Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

P/s: sorry for typo. I will come back to correct it later during free time. FKLI opens in 3 mins. Ciao all! Make some dough!

Sunday, 22 April 2012

Weekly Update 23-27 April 12 - S&P500, Soybean Oil, Soybean, Wheat and Corn Futures

Happy weekend traders!

How was your weekend? I hope you're all doing well where ever you are now.

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Economic Reports:

Alright, we have nothing on Monday, but on Tuesday, we have CB Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales, on Wednesday we have Core Durable Goods Orders m/m and FOMC meeting, Thursday we have Unemployment Claims and Pending Home Sales and lastly on Friday, we have Advance GDP q/q.

Seems like the best day to trade with nice range is on Monday. So trade safely and apply the right strategies on the respective days.

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Alright lets do a recap and then look at the week ahead.

Alright lets look at our levels last week. If you have not read our last week's update, you can click here.

Our levels for the S&P last week was:

The possible upper weekly range is: 1404
The possible lower weekly range is: 1328

We traded to the following weekly range:

Opened: 1366 from last close of 1365
High: 1390
Low: 1359.25
Closed: 1375

Monday and Tuesday saw us testing both the low of 60 which was our support as represented by the lower trend line below which held nicely and the high of last week of 88.50.

Basically Tuesday's price action's extreme was the range we have been trading for the rest of the week. With some major numbers coming out and with the IMF meeting looming on Friday and Saturday plus monthly options expiry, it was reasonable to expect a choppy session coming into the weekend.

So what we have done in the past 2 weeks was to form a flag of sort after breaking down from the upward channel.

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What to expect for next week:

Well, since this is a flag formation in the S&P, we want to know if this is a bull or bear flag. At this point, the trend line we are drawing seems to be getting less steeper which means the market is softening somewhat. But we are still trading above the 20ema on the weekly so until we break that, I would hold on to the opinion that the general trend is still up. But a second leg down to test the 20ema is a reasonable probability too for next week.

The weekly range for next week are:

The possible upper weekly range is: 1400
The possible lower weekly range is: 1328

If we break down from this flag for the second leg down since breaking the major trend line, I think the 20ema area should hold around the area of 28 unless an end of the world news comes on the wire. If we break out above, the next trend line above at about 1400 will need to be tested and overcame so I think a full upside rally is not yet in store for next week. Unless we have some extremely positive sentiments coming in, and we break the 1400 level and close above it, we might have an outside chance to test the recent highs.

So we will let price action be our guide. We will follow this contract closely as it will have a good indication for how we will be trading our local KLCI.

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Soybean Oil Futures.

Our levels for Soybean Oil Futures contract for last week was:

The possible upper weekly range is: 57.40 still
The possible lower weekly range is: 55.50 and an outside chance of reaching 54.80.

We traded to these following levels last week:

Opened: 56.45 from last close of 56.41
High: 56.49
Low: 55
Closed: 56.12

This contract came down to test our weekly low range of 55.50 and in fact touched a low of 55 on Thursday's trading which was just above our second level of support of 54.80. Then on Friday, we rallied to close back up near the upper weekly range and formed a hammer looking candle. Take note that the rally started at the same time when our FCPO staged the late rally to close near the 3500 range. This is the reason why we are looking at all these CME grains when we are trading the FCPO.

Due to I'm watching the market during trading hours, I cannot keep on coming to make new post during market hours. But if you would like to know what these grains are doing during our FCPO trading hours, you can contact me by dropping me an email and I will let you know how to contact me.

So what's in store for next week?

Here is the weekly range for next week:

The possible upper weekly range is: 57.50
The possible lower weekly range is: 55.20 and an outside chance of reaching 54.80.

I think the lower minor trend line at 55.20 will hold and we might go back up to test the highs again. If this does come true, look for our FCPO to be having upside momentum too.

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Soybean Futures

Wow wow wow.. look at our star performer so far. Still the strongest performer among 4 of our grains product!

Our levels for this contract last week was:

The possible upper weekly range: 1465
The possible lower weekly range: 1400 and an outside chance to 1391 should we pull down further.

We traded to these following levels last week:

Opened: 1434.50 from last close of 1436.75
High: 1458.75
Low: 1403.75
Closed: 1458.75

Well last week we traded close to both the projected upper and lower weekly range by a few points.

We touched the low of 03.75 which was above our weekly low range and also above the 20ema in the daily chart and rebounded from there to close near our weekly high at 58.75. We have now closed above last week's high and above the 1450 resistance level and this is a very bullish signal for me. I think it is possible that we will go up to test the recent high of 1465, and then 80. If the other grains product such as corn and wheat can recover from their lows and not drag the price of this and Soybean Oil down, then I think we have a good chance to test these resistance levels.

The weekly range for next week are:

The possible upper weekly range: 1480 and an outside chance to test 1500.
The possible lower weekly range: 1402

I'm quite excited by the performance for this contract. Its positive performance will have a direct and close co-relation with our FCPO contract. So be on the lookout for the performance of all these grain products.

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Wheat Futures

Our levels for Wheat Futures for last week are as following:

The possible upper weekly range: 671
The possible lower weekly range: 611, 605

We traded to the following levels last week:

Opened: 623.25 from last close of 622.75
High: 628.25
Low: 604.25
Closed: 616.50

Price traded to a low of 04.25 on Wednesday which tested our weekly low of 605 which held nicely as price rebounded right after testing it. Then we staged a rally on Thursday to touch the weekly high of 28.25 before giving back most of the gains on Friday to close at 616.50.

Wheat is one of the two contracts which are performing poorly and are testing the support levels unlike the Soybean Oil and Soybean contracts. The price action of Friday's trade seems to indicate that the sellers still have quite some influence in this contract. So I think a rally from this point is not yet in the cards for next week. But I am encouraged by the performance of the Soybean Oil and Soybean contracts so I hope that can give some positive impetus for Wheat too.

I think the support should hold and we will see if the buyers can wrest control back for this contract.

The weekly range for next week are as follows:

The possible upper weekly range: 646
The possible lower weekly range: 600 should hold and next is 591

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Corn Futures

Our levels for Corn last week were:

The possible upper weekly range: 665
The possible lower weekly range: 605

We traded to the following levels last week:

Opened: 626.75 from last close of 627.75
High: 629
Low: 599.50
Closed: 601

Well.. what can we say.. Corn is still the weakest performer amongst all the 4 grains products. We have now broken our of the triangle pattern conclusively and remained closed there. This is quite a bearish indication. However, the good news is that there are still a few levels of support below. So not everything is going to the dogs yet. We did stage a rally on Thursday but gave everything back on Friday.

Now, what are the possible outcome for this contract? Well, first, the Soybean and Soybean Oil contracts could rally and hold this contract up. Second, this contract could puke further thereby dragging the forward march of the other grains product including our FCPO. What will happen remains to be seen.

The possible weekly range for this contract is:

The possible upper weekly range: 640
The possible lower weekly range: 583

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Since the CME grains are performing mixed, I think the upward march for our FCPO will be the same too. We may try to rally when the Soybean and Soybean Oil push up, but will pull back too when the performance of these contracts are being dragged by Corn and Wheat.

So we will follow closely on the performance of these contracts on a daily basis. I will not be posting them every morning except some brief comments. The reason for this is that by the time I finish the FKLI morning post, it is time for market to open already. But you can still contact me for the levels for FCPO and CME grains by dropping your contact info via email and I will get in touch with you.

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I will update the weekly outlook for FKLI and FCPO tomorrow morning as I do not have the charts here. But here is a brief summary of last week's price action.

KLCI:

We had a down week but it was nothing too serious. We are just chopping within current upper range for the past 2 months already. We expected the support to hold which is still is. We are still trading above the 20ema in the weekly so nothing too bearish yet.

I will post the weekly range tomorrow morning.

FCPO:

This is the second week we tested our weekly low range. Last week, price tested our low of 3500 and this week, we tested the weekly low of 3440. The low of the week was 3439 if I remember correctly. I hate not having my charts here now as I left my pen drive in the office. We then staged a late rally on Friday evening to test the low of last week at 3500s.

So what is in store for next week? Well, you need to wait for tomorrow once I get my hands on the charts.. :)

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So happy reading, get rested for next week and lets make some dough.

Ciao!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader