Morning Updates - 31 Mat 2012

Morning Trader,

What an interesting day ahead of us!

Alright.. just a brief recap yesterday. The whole world was down, and out of this, only two market that closed in the green. One was New Zealand which closed largely unchanged, and another, drum roll please... Boleh-land.

If you were trading yesterday, you would have known what I'm talking about  so there is no need for much explanations. I shorted towards the end and today I am hoping for carnage in the market. :)

Lets proceed with the updates.

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Europe all closed down heavy last night along with the US market too. Dow closed down -161 points or 1.28% while S&P closed down -19 points or 1.43%. Nikkei is trading at -166 now or down -1.93%. Dow futures us now trading at -19 points as of 8.16am.

So... personally, I am hoping for things to drop through the floor.. but after yesterday's magnificent performance by our boleh-land market, I think I better not be to over confident. lol..

In the S&P, we closed as a big nice red bar. We also closed below the 200ema at 1313 which was a big support area so that is good news for the sellers.

In one of our morning updates about 2 post ago, I mention that if the buyers do not push the market back up above 1336-1440s soon, the sellers will take back control of the market which it did with the help of some negative sentiments coming out of Europe.

So now we are back trading below the 200ema again. Should we trade down again in the US market tonight, I think I will most likely swing my short positions.

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Lets move on to our local market.

FKLI

Cash Index

Alright.. I'm short now and if the market goes up again today just like yesterday, I think I will raise my hands and give up and acknowledge the power of boleh-land markets.

Most of the shorts established was at the 80 level from yesterday evening. How about all of you? What do you think will happen today? Big question isn't it?

So, I hope these position can turn into a swing short.. so we will see what happens from here.. With the US market breaking down, I'm definitely not going to be swing long, that's for sure.

Trade safe and watch your levels.

Here are your trading levels

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1583, 1585, 1588, 1591, 1595
Lower Support: 1578, 1575, 1572, 1570, 1565

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1578, 1580, 1583, 1587, 1590
Lower Support: 1571, 1568, 1565, 1560, 1556, 1552

Trade safe!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 30th May 2012

Morning Traders,

How are you all doing? I hope everyone is doing great and ready to go!

Alright lets get started.

The US market all closed positive with the Dow up 126 points and the S&P up 15 points. Europe also all closed positive.

In the S&P, we closed as a big green healthy bar last night. The high of the S&P is at 1334.50 and the 22ema is at 1336 which should provide some resistance in the coming few days. On the weekly chart, the 1336 level is also quite significant as the 22ema is there also. So we have a convergence of the 22ema in two different time frames. I think this will be quite a significant level to watch from here.

The Dow is currently trading at -26 at premarket trading.

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Alright lets move on to our local market.

FKLI

Cash Index

Wow.. what a rally yesterday. Honestly, I really expected the cash to go up and test the 60 level but I did not expect it to reach all the way to 65 yesterday.

I also actually expected FKLI to go up further and the max target I gave was 65-70 by the end of the week. I totally did not expect it to reach it in just one afternoon.

So, the big question now is what next? Well, good question.. With such a rally yesterday, I think many of the sellers had their balls castrated. But for those who went long and swung their long position totally got their pay off if they had the guts to hold up till now.

With the US market closing positive last night, I think today would not be a day to start a swing short, that's for sure. But would it be a good day to start a swing long? The answer for me is a no too. Maybe you could if the current conditions fit your trading strategy.

Honestly from the bottom of my heart, with the swing long almost reaching its climax, I would be more inclines to look for a swing short entry. But it is not today. I would look for price to go up a bit more, trade sideways for a few days, and look for a fresh close below some support levels. I will update again when I see the entry setting up.

As for today, I would just stick with scalping and taking profits off the table and not hold positions over night until price has settled down.

Trade your levels carefully.

Here are your trading levels:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1570, 1572, 1575, 1578, 1580
Lower Support: 1565, 1562, 1558, 1553

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1568, 1571, 1575, 1578
Lower Support: 1560, 1556, 1552, 1550

Trade safe!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 29th May 2012

 Morning Traders,

How are you all today? I hope everyone out there is doing great! I went to bed early with a slight fever and felt much better after waking up this morning.

So lets proceed with today's update.

Europe closed back flat yesterday. Dow futures finally came back down a bit from its highs last night too. Currently, Dow is now trading at +22 points.

Price have yet to break the 28 level yet as of now in the S&P for yesterday But we are still trading above the 200ema in the Daily chart. I am more favourable for the S&P to trade sideways to a slightly down in tonight's trading.

So we will see what happens. Should price breaks down, the 200ema will provide some measure of support there as well at around the 1312 area.

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FKLI

Cash Index

Alright.. lets see what we have going on here in our local market.

Yesterday we had another up day. Futures was trailing cash very tightly. Today is the 29th and we are fast approaching the end of the month so expect to see more roll-overs.

The US market looks sideways and actually a bit bearish. However, that doesn't mean that our local market would fall today. We will need to see the final close of their cash index tomorrow morning to see what has unfold.

As for our local index, we closed at 55.94 yesterday and the next 20ema is at 60. I think there is a possibility that we might go back up to test that level in the coming days, so you need to be on the watch out for that.

As for the FKLI, if the cash really goes up to test the 60 level, I think the futures might do the same and break above the 20ema and test upper resistance. But I still believe that the maximum high for the week would not surpass the 65-70 area.

So trade your levels carefully. I am not sure if FKLI will be trading as tight to the Cash index just like yesterday or not so you have to be prepared for that as well. We have Consumer Confidence report in the US tonight so there is a possibility we might end in a range trading day as well so do not be caught buying the top unless you are trading a break out, in which case, you need to make sure that there is sufficient strength in the move to reach your target.

Here are your trading levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1555, 1558, 1562, 1565, 1570
Lower Support: 1548, 1545, 1540, 1537

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1556, 1560, 1565, 1568, 1570
Lower Support: 1552, 1550, 1546, 1540

Trade safe!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 28th May 2012

Morning Traders,

A good Monday to all of you out there.

Wow, US futures gapped up on opening today. The Dow is now trading +60 in premarket. Take note that there will be a banking holiday for some major market such as the US, Germany, French and Switzerland.

Alright the Indexes closed slightly negative last Friday with the Dow closing down -75 points and the S&P closing down -3 points.

It is possible that the buyers are going to try and push this back up to the 30s-40s level and test the 20ema, but a lot of it will depend on the numbers coming up including the unemployment rate so be on the watch out for that. the 20ema now stands at 1336 so that should provide some intermediate resistance should the market reach that level.

Alright lets have a look at our local market. If you have not read our weekly update, you can click here.

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FKLI

Cash Index

Alright.. looks like we are going to have a bullish start today with the US futures gaping up?

Generally, if you are short through the weekend and you see a gap up on a Monday, it would naturally make you nervous. With the addition of banking holiday for some of the major economy, I think this would give an opportunity for the buyers to push this up.

I still see some resistance overhead with the 20ema standing at 1555 for now. Should the buyers really push this up this week, I'm looking at a maximum of 65-70 level. Otherwise, I think the 55-60 should do its job to halt price going back up so quickly.

The general belief for a long weekend holiday is that the next three days after the holiday starting Tuesday is generally a bit more bearish. How much of this myth is true, I don't know as it has not been proven statistically yet. However, we will not go wrong following price action.

Both the FKLI and the Cash index are trading above the 200ema so we will see if the buyers will want to continue to push this up or not to test the 20ema. The 20ema for the Cash index stand at 1560.

Trade your levels carefully. I'm looking to see if resistance can hold and maybe take a small short scalp. Otherwise, I might just trade with the trend.

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1550, 1554, 1558, 1560, 1563
Lower Support: 1542, 1538, 1534, 1531

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1552, 1556, 1560, 1565
Lower Support: 1546, 1541, 1537, 1534

Weekly Summary and Updates for S&P 500, Soybean Oil, Soybean, Wheat and Corn - 28th May - 1th June 2012

Good evening traders,

How is your weekend so far? I hope you are all rested and ready for next week! :)

Lets do a bit of recap of last week.

In the beginning of this week, after price had fallen through the floor in the FKLI, we expected a bit of pull back towards the direction of the 20ema with the general area of 55 as the target price.

Price indeed traded back up and we close Friday at 1549 although we traded in a grinding and choppy fashion. In the FKLI, price traded both above AND below the 200ema. However in the Cash market, Price basically remained above the 200ema which should have given traders some confirmation on the pause of the recent decline.

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S&P 500 Futures - ES

We traded to these levels last week:

Opened: 1291.75
High: 1329.75
Low: 1287.25
Closed: 1314.75

Our levels for last week was:

Possible Weekly Upper Range: 1343
Possible Weekly Lower Range: 1250 and an outer chance to reach 1220.

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In the S&P, coincidentally or not, on the Daily chart, we are also trading at the 200ema area and the chart looks pretty much the same as our local FKLI. Price have taken a pause from the decline of the previous week and have pulled back a bit from the lows.

I personally think the danger is not yet over. May has traditionally been believed to be a wishy-washy month and it is the month before Triple-Witching on the third Friday of next month. Unless there are really great market stimulating news to give this market a boost towards the upside, I think the better risk vs rewards would be towards the downside.

I think the 1336-1340 area are going to be strong resistance points in the S&P futures and the buyers need to push this way above that range to make people believe that this market can still go up in the intermediate term. Otherwise, I think very soon the sellers will take back control of this market and add the Euro zone crisis as a kicker, we could break down through some serious support and cause some serious pains to the longs.

However, should we break down further, we should see some support at the 1250-1220 area which is the congestion area at the end of last year.

Here are the possible range for next week:

Possible Weekly Upper Range: 1343
Possible Weekly Lower Range: 1250 and an outer chance to reach 1220.

We will let price action be our guide.

Lets move on to the CME grains.

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Soybean Oil Futures

We traded to these following levels last week:

Opened: 50.44
High: 51.28
Low: 48.55
Closed: 50.20

Our levels for last week was:

Possible upper weekly range is: 52
Possible lower weekly range is: 48.30

Alright.. we were quite close in regards to the possible weekly range. Our projected weekly low was 48.30 and the low was just a few cents above which was 48.55.

We closed the week as a spinning top doji. Price broke down in midweek but we regained a lot of ground in the last two days of trading. We are now still trading firmly below the triangle pattern, but the rally in the last two days indicated that there are still buyers still willing to come in at those levels.

There is a possibility that we might break down further. After all, we have not yet break the down trend line from the recent down swing. But should we move up next week, I don't think we will go past the lower triangle pattern trend line by too much. I am more biased towards a sideways trading for next week. Should we break down further, I think the 200ema would provide some degree of support for this contract.

Here are the levels for next week:

Possible upper weekly range is: 52.50
Possible lower weekly range is: 48.30 and an outside chance to touch 47 should we break further.

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Soybean Futures

**side track** - Look at this chart and look at those of the S&P. Doesn't it baffles you how similar they look like? lol..

We traded to these following levels last week:

Opened: 1413.75
High: 1423
Low: 1351
Closed: 1383.50

Our levels for last week was:

The possible upper weekly range is: 1465
The possible lower weekly range is: 1350

Wow.. we called the low of this contract almost by the tick! Our possible low of the weel was 1350 and the low it made was 1351. I think we got the lows for this contract and Soybean Oil quite accurately for this week.

We have yet to break the down trend line for this contract so the worst is perhaps not yet over yet. We closed the week down but we did regain a lot of the losses from mid week right into Friday.

I am looking at possible sideways trading to a possible slight break down from these levels. We will see how the other grains product are performing including our FCPO as all of these are economically related products so their price tends to move in tandem with each other to a certain degree.

The top of last week as actually smack right at the top of the triangle pattern upper trend line. It is possible that for next week, that same line would provide much resistance yet again, and should we over come that, the 1450 would be an area of strong resistance.

Should we drop further, which is quite possible, I think that the 50ema area should provide some measure of support at around 1312-1300 area. We will let price action be our guide and follow this contract closely as a breakdown of this contract will bring our FCPO lower too.

The possible range for next week are:

The possible upper weekly range is: 1450
The possible lower weekly range is: 1312-1300 area.

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Wheat Futures

We traded to these following levels last week:

Opened: 700
High: 722
Low: 661.75
Closed: 675

Our levels for last week was:

The possible upper weekly range is: 754
The possible lower weekly range is: 622

After Wheat's strong performance last week, price did try to rally but was thwarted at the first area of resistance at 725 area. Price was not able to close above the upper triangle trend line last week. Wheat has essentially been trading sideways for a long time with the exception of last week strong bull bar. Perhaps we might see this contract start to get some upside strength in the coming weeks and stage a break out above? We will see.

I think wheat might try to push up above the triangle pattern once again. So the first area of resistance would be the 695-700 area. If we manage to break that, then maybe we can go up to test the 725 area once again. Should the other grains be performing weakly, then I think wheat would be pulled down as well back into the choppy range once again at around 625 area.

Here are the levels for next week:

The possible upper weekly range is: 725
The possible lower weekly range is: 623

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Corn Futures

We traded to these following levels last week:

Opened: 638.25
High: 644.50
Low: 573.25
Closed: 578.75

Our levels for last week was:

Possible upper weekly range: 665
Possible lower weekly range: 575

Wow.. we almost called the low for Corn too this week by a few ticks. Our projected lows was 575 and the low was actually 573.25. Pretty close!

But I do not know if that is good news or bad news. What that means is that price has tested the 575 support a few times and should the other grains break down further, we might see corn fall through the floor and dragging our FCPO with it as well. So be forewarned!

I will be following this contract closely to see if we break down further. Corn has been in a choppy range but we are now trading firmly below the triangle pattern.

Should we break down below, I think the 200ema area should give some degree of support too.

Here are the levels for next week:

Possible upper weekly range: 655
Possible lower weekly range: 542 and and outside chance to touch 529 should we break further.

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So take care and I'll see all of you tomorrow in our morning updates! Ciao!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 25th May 2012

Morning Traders,

Today is the last day of the trading week. The major markets will be having a 3 day weekend so you need to be on the look out for that. It is believed that shorter term traders would lighten some of their positions to avoid any surprises when trading resumes for them on Tuesday. How much this is true we don't know. However, you would not go wrong if you just follow price action and let the chart tell you instead of guessing it yourself.

Alright. The US market closed up last night with the exception of Nasdaq which closed down with 11 points. The Dow closed up 34 points and the S&P closed up 2 points. Now this is nothing to shout about to be honest, but at least, it is a relief for the longs who have been suffering up till now.

On the chart, we did closed as a green bar with a long tail, but we are now trading at some resistance level. On the S&P futures, price need to break up and close above the 30s level convincingly to make me believe this bounce is strong. Otherwise, this could be just a pause before we drop further in the coming weeks. As for now, price looks like it is trading sideways just like in our local market.

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Okies... on the FKLI yesterday we closed back above the 200ema. Looks like more sideways action for me until we have any conclusive break out from this range. The cash market had closing above the 200ema for the past four days though.

Since we have a fresh close above the 200ema, if you are looking to long, price need to open at or preferably, higher than yesterday's close. This would give us confirmation that the trend is still strong. But I'm looking at the 48-55s level in the FKLI as quite strong resistance points so if you do go long, I would suggest you take your profits as price may pull back in those area until we have a strong breakout from there.

Being a Friday, with many of the major market closed next Monday, I would want to be careful and take my profits and not leave money on the table.

Trade safe and here are you trading levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1542, 1546, 1548, 1550, 1554
Lower Support: 1537, 1534, 1531, 1524, 1520

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1550, 1553, 1556, 1560
Lower Support: 1541, 1537, 1534

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 24 May 2012

Morning Traders,

I hope everyone got well rested.

I woke up a few times last night to check on the US market and what a roller coaster ride it was. I went to bed quite early, but at that time, the market was down about 140+ points in the Dow. I woke up a second time to see the market down by 180+ points. In fact, it made a low of -191 points last night. I finally woke up again at 4 something only to find that Dow had reduced its losses to -6.66!

So now we have closed two days in a row as a doji, last night being a long legged doji. The break below yesterday's low and the sharp reversal would have caught many early sellers stuck short. The EU problems are not resolved yet as the Euro nations are preparing contingencies plan in case Greece decides to quit the single currency system.

Waiting for this kind of news kinds of reminds me of when the US was downgraded last year. Everyone was waiting for it and not sure if it will happen or not, and when it finally did, on a Saturday, the longs really got it bad. So we will have to see what will happen for the situation in Greece. Perhaps we will go back up towards the 20ema direction slowly, but this move seems very fragile and it seems like a small breeze would topple the move and reverse the direction. Don't you feel the same way? As of now, the Dow is down -35 points in premarket trading.

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What to expect in our local FKLI.

Geez.. it had not been easy to grind out profits for both the longs and the shorts position holders for the past two days. We have moved sideways and probably only scalpers were able to get the most out of this market. In the FKLI, we have closed below the 200ema yesterday. To establish a short position, we would need price to open at or below yesterday's closing as a confirmation that the trend might continue. Otherwise, it is possible that we might trade sideways and even chop back up again today.

Until we have a clear break out from this sideways range and more clear indication in the Euro zone crisis, I think we need to be cautious and reduce your trading size and take your profits quickly. Trade safe and here are your trading levels:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1534, 1537, 1540, 1545, 1548
Lower Support: 1527, 1524, 1520, 1517

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1547, 1550, 1553, 1556
Lower Support: 1535, 1530, 1527, 1524

Take care and I'll update if there are any urgent news on the wires!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 23th May 2012

Morning Traders,

How is everyone doing? I hope everyone got rested and ready for the day.

Alright.. After the existing home sales data last night, market reacted positively and bounced up but gave away most of the gains late into trading before closing flat for the day.

From what I can see, sellers are pretty much still in the market and should not be written off yet. However, the ball is in the buyer's court now to see if they will defend these levels because if they do not and we give back the gains of Monday, we are going to look at another down leg after that.

As of now, we basically closed as a doji in the S&P futures so buyers and sellers are pretty balanced. We will wait and see which sides will win and break through the doji extreme in the next few days.

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FKLI

Alright. We closed a 11 points discount to our Cash market. The cash index was matched up in the end and we closed at a new high for the day but futures continued to fall off the floor.

I would want to still follow what the Cash index is doing today. If the cash market is going up, futures can't diverge too far. I'm in favour of price going back to test the 20ema area in the coming days assuming there are no changes and no additional bad news on the horizon.

Trade your levels carefully.

Here are the levels for today.

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1540, 1544, 1547, 1550
Lower Support: 1535, 1531, 1527, 1525

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1550, 1553, 1556, 1560
Lower Support: 1541, 1537, 1534, 1530, 1527

Trade safe all!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 22 May 2012

Morning Traders,

Wow.. I went to bed again at 9pm and woke up at 3 to find that the US market had rebounded quite hard.

Yesterday we expected the market to go back to towards the direction of the 20ema which it did. I hope many of you made some money yesterday.

Last week, we dropped pretty hard in quite a semi-parabolic fashion. I was just listening to some old audio of Tom Sosnoff's market wrap audio this morning and someone mention that the longer the pull back has been delayed, the stronger the pull back is going to be.

So we will see what's going to happen from here.

The S&P futures is currently trading at 1315 and the 20ema is at the 40s level. so if we should go back to test that in the coming days, we might see some bounce in our local market too. After closing below the 20ema in the weekly. the trend should be assumed to be down unless we close above it again. However, at this momont, the 50ema is holding nicely yet. The 20ema in the weekly chart is at the 30s level.

There will be economic report in the coming few days so you need to be aware of that. A good number will send this market up further while a bad one would make the gains yesterday as just a bounce in a down trend.

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FKLI Daily Chart

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Caah Index

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Alright.. with yesterday's bounce in our local market and the same in US, we might see some relief and price may go back to regain some of the recent losses. We broke down from about the 80s level and reached a low of 17. The midway point would be at about the 55 area. So should we rebound, regaining half of what we lost is a possibility.

We need to follow price action closely and look at cash for our lead. Should cash be performing strongly, you would not want to be short this market unless you are day trading and looking for a quick scalp in which case, you need to take your profits quickly.

So watch your levels and price action closely. As usual, buy at support areas and look to sell only if resistance is holding.

Here are the levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1540, 1546, 1550, 1553, 1558, 1560
Lower Support: 1530, 1524, 1520

Cash Index
Upper Resistance: 1541, 1546, 1550, 1552, 1556, 1560
Lower Support: 1530, 1527, 1524

Trade safe and make some money!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 21 May 2012

Morning Traders,

Good Monday and lets get started with the updates this morning.

Alright, currently the US futures are up +53 for Dow and up +6 for S&P futures. The Nikkei is up +46 and Korea is up +20.

Looks like the market reacted slightly positively to the G* meeting but nothing too bullish at the moment. If you haven't read the weekly updates, you can click here. Basically, we have now closed below the 20ema in the weekly for the S&P during last week and that is a bearish indication for us.

There will be a few major numbers to be released this week so we will be on the watch out for that.

-----

(I will update the chart later)

On our local front, we have dropped significantly in the past week and are now trading at the 200ema area for the FKLI. I really do not think that the bottom is anywhere near at all. Usually at a bottom, you would see an acceleration of price going down, sort of a spike down with increased volume, only to go back up just as fast and maybe close the day up.

However, I think there is a possibility that we may see a bounce or a pause in the decline before continuing the move down again. In any case, we will let the cash market be our lead. I think price could be due for a slight pull back towards the direction of the 20ema if there are no fresh negative news on the horizon.

So trade your levels and buy at where support are holding and if you are looking to sell, make sure it is at resistance point that are holding nicely. You do not want to be standing in front of a train or catching a falling knife, using some old trading cliché.

Here are the levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1527, 1531, 1537, 1542, 1547
Lower Support: 1520, 1515, 1510, 1505

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1541, 1546, 1549, 1553
Lower Support: 1530, 1524, 1520, 1514, 1510

Trade safe and lets make some money this week!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Weekly Update - S&P, Soybean Oil, Soybean, Wheat and Corn Futures

Good evening and weekend everyone.

How was your weekend? I hope that everyone had a great and relaxing weekend. On my side here, all is well and good. It would be even better if we can trade profitably next week, right? :)

Alright lets proceed with the weekend updates.

The US market closed down again on Friday. the G8 meeting has been concluded and we will see how the futures open in the pre-market on Sunday evening (Monday morning for Malaysian time).

So lets proceed to the weekly updates.

S&P 500 Futures - ES

We traded to these following levels last week:

Opened: 1346
High: 1351
Low: 1289.75
Close: 1290.50

Our levels for last week was:

The possible upper weekly range is: 1385
The possible lower weekly range is: 1328 and an outside chance to 1309 if we break further.

Looks like the week was more bearish than most's expectation. We broke through a few levels of support and even closed below the 50ema in the weekly chart. A few weeks ago before we broke down, we noted that the general trend would be assumed to be up as long as we are still trading above the 20ema in the weekly chart. Now, we are firmly trading below the 20ema in the weekly.

We opened the year at 1274.75. We are now at 1290.50, which means we almost gave back most of the gains for the whole of 2012 in just 3 weeks, which I feel is a bit fast. But that is the nature of the market. It takes longer to go up and just a short period to come down.

So all eyes will be on Europe from now. We also mention that mid year tends to be bearish in the market. There is an old saying in the market 'sell in May and go away' so you just want to be aware of that. As with all things trading, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. But what it does tell you is that traditionally, people are more bearish in midyear most of the time.

From 1275 area down to 1200 are large consolidation areas from Oct-Dec of last year and after that, we have another consolidation area from 1200 down to 1100. If there are no major negative catalyst to sink this market, and should price still want to go down further, I think it will be in a grinding fashion. But if a real big negative news comes in, then we might blow past this area in a cleaner fashion. So we will be on the lookout for whats coming up on the horizon in the coming days.

Next week, I would want to see if the 50ema is holding or not. Price could recover a bit before resuming the down trend again. Price just can't continue to go down like a rock especially if there are no major catalyst. A bounce back before resuming down is a healthy move. So I'm looking for the mid 1250s to hold for next week. But should a really bad news comes in, then we might go down all the way to test 1220 area.

Here are the levels for next week:

Possible Weekly Upper Range: 1343
Possible Weekly Lower Range: 1250 and an outer chance to reach 1220.

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Lets move on to the grains products:

Soybean Oil

We traded to these following levels last week:

Opened: 52.38
High: 52.43
Low: 50.03
Closed: 50.24

Our levels for last week was:

The possible upper weekly range is: 55
The possible lower weekly range is: 51 and an outside chance to touch 50.30 if we break further.

Soybean Oil had broke down further and closed outside of the triangle pattern. However, the support levels are still holding and there are a few immediate support levels below too. The low of the week was 50.03 which was quite close to our weekly lower range projection.

Its interesting to see how we will do next week. We had a good bounce in the Wheat and Corn contracts and Soybean had temporarily halted its downward decline as well. This should give Soybean Oil somewhat of an upward pull or at least, stop it from dropping as much.

However, Corn and Wheat are basically trading in a consolidation pattern so there is a possibility that they chop back down again too. If they should chop back down, we may see some acceleration in downside move in Soybean Oil again. We will let price action unfolds and we will follow accordingly.

Possible upper weekly range is: 52
Possible lower weekly range is: 48.30

--------

Soybean

We traded to these following levels last week:

Opened: 1406
High: 1449.75
Low: 1376
Closed: 1408.25

Our levels for last week was:

The possible upper weekly range: 1465
The possible lower weekly range: 1350

We closed the week as a doji. Thanks to the rally in Wheat and Corn, Soybean was able to halt its decline as well. The low of the week actually was right on the trend line we drew on the chart.

The support level held nicely and it would be interesting to see if prices can hold here and we go back up to test the highs again. If we are able to do this, then I think Soybean will be able to push the price up for the grains commodities including out FCPO.

Since we close the week as a doji, it is possible that we might trade sideways for a while before price breaks out of either direction. Even though we have a strong performance in the Corn and Wheat, those two contracts are trading in a consolidation pattern and there was no clean break out there yet plus there are some resistance overhead.

So I am in favor of a sideways trading for a few days before we see a definite trend developing. Our FCPO has been bleeding badly since Soybean broke its upward channel so if a recovery in the Soybean plus a stronger performance in the other grains, we might see some bounce in our FCPO too.

We will follow the price action of this contract closely.

The possible upper weekly range is: 1465
The possible lower weekly range is: 1350

----

Wheat

 We traded to these following levels:

Opened: 599
High: 697.50
Low: 592.25
Closed: 695

Our levels for last week was:

The possible upper weekly range: 655
The possible lower weekly range: 576

Wow.. look at that big green weekly bar! We blew past our weekly projected range by more than 40 points! What a big rally that was. And to be honest, it was a good relief as this rally in Wheat and Corn also halted the strong down move in our FCPO. The bottom of the flag (thin blue line) held nicely as support for two weeks in a row.

Now the question I have in my mind is, how far can we push up like this? Seems to me that there are quite a few resistance ahead. The first obstacle is the upper triangle trend line and of we manage to break that and close above it, there will still be more resistance overhead.

So we will see if price will maintain this upward momentum next week.

The possible upper weekly range is: 754
The possible lower weekly range is: 622

----

Corn

We traded to these following levels last week:

Opened: 582
High: 638.50
Low: 576.25
Closed: 633.25

Our levels for last week was:

The possible upper weekly range: 616
The possible lower weekly range: 640

Corn also had a strong week. However, how far this recent move up can sustain is whole different matter. Just like Wheat, there will be a few overhead resistance to overcome. Overall, this contract is trading in a consolidation area.

But the strong performance in this contract actually help to slow down the decline in all the grains product including our FCPO this week. Perhaps if Corn is able to continue this strong move, then we might be able to recover a bit in our FCPO.

The lower triangle will be a major resistance to overcome and of we manage to break that, then we will see if we can break the 665 area for Corn. But because we are trading within the consolidation area, I wouldn't discount the possibility that we might chop back down again next week despite the strong gains this week.

We will let price lead us.

Here are the levels for next week:

Possible upper weekly range: 665
Possible lower weekly range: 575

------

I will update the weekly range for FKLI and FCPO tomorrow.

Ciao and good night all!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

This post is reserved for Friday's summary.

To be updated later.

Daily Summary and Weekend Updates

Good evening everyone,

I got back quite late just now as I had a night appointment..

I will do the daily summary and the weekend updates sometimes during this weekend.

Wishing all of you a relaxing and refreshing weekend!

Ciao all!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 18th May 2012

Morning Traders,

Looks like an exciting day ahead!

Firstly, apologies as I didn't update the daily summary last night. I went to bed at 9pm as I felt really tired. Yeah.. it was this kind of week.. fortunes are made and fortunes are lost type of week. For my side, everything is all good.

Lets proceed with the daily summary.


Dow12,442-156-1.24%
Nasdaq2,814-60-2.10%
S&P 5001,305-20-1.51%

The US market closed down again last night reacting negatively to the economic numbers. the trend is clearly down. Is this the start of a really big down trend? Possible.. We will have to see how to do it.. Primarily, I have been a day trader my whole trading career and trying to switch to a position holding trader is tough, but I will try to do my best still. Lets proceed with our local market.

----

Alright I don't have much time to write coz today is going to be a big day!

Short anyone??? Hahaha.. omg.. Nikkei is down by 200 now!

Trade safe! I will be looking to ride this down if Cash is going down too! I may be wrong, so be careful too!

Here are the levels for today!

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1530, 1538, 1545
Lower Suppoer: 1520, 1510, 1500, 1490, 1480, 1470

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1546, 1555
Lower Support: 1530, 1520, 1510, 1500, 1490,

Trade Safe!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 17 May 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright lets proceed with the daily updates.

Here are the closing for today:


Dow12,599-33-0.26%
Nasdaq2,874-20-0.68%
S&P 5001,325-6-0.44%

During cash trading last night, the market was up and at one point, the Dow was up by more than 80 points. then it slowly slid from there and we closed down negative again.

So, what do you all think? Is this the start of things going to crap big time? Or will we somehow manage to survive this and bounce back up? There will be unemployment claims tonight.. A good number will give traders a reason to rally a bit from the recent loss and a bad one will really sent this puppy down.

---

Alright lets proceed with out local market.

We have been having heavy losses the past few days. I think many of the sleeping longs in the cash market either are already aware and have been liquidating or are just starting to consider to take action.

The question I have in my mind is that, why are the Asian market selling down so much? Is it due to the possible financial crisis in Europe? The French, German and Switzerland's market would be closed today so please take note.

I am flat today so I should be able to take new position and see which way it breaks. I don't know if the heavy selling in the Cash market is due to retails or institutional selling, but whichever it is, what concerns is where they are going. If people are going to sell down cash, then the futures will have to follow too.

But after a few days of heavy selling, please be aware of possible pause as well.

Trade your levels and watch if your support or resistance is holding.

Here are the levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1531, 1537, 1545, 1550, 1555
Lower Support: 1520, 1515, 1506, 1500, 1490, 1480, 1470

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1550, 1553, 1560, 1565
Lower Support: 1530, 1524, 1517, 1510, 1500, 1490

Trade Safe!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Daily Summary - 16th May 2012

Good evening traders,

How did you all do? Today was take a loss type of day for me.. :( But despite that, there was some good news too.. So I hope some of you made money too..

Anyway here are the updates for today.

-------

FKLI 30 Mins Chart

------

FKLI Daily Chart

-------

Cash Index Chart

------

Looks like the Cash index just fell without a floor to support it huh..

Alright we traded to these following levels today:

FKLI

Opened: 1545
High: 1547
Low: 1522.50
Closed: 1524

Cash Index

Opened: 1558.25
High: 1558.25
Low: 1535.05
Closed: 1536.04

As I mention, today was a down day for me. I had held longs and got married to my position from yesterday. I was long in the low 50s and price went against me that day. Instead of closing the position, I somehow manage to convinced myself that things may get better the next day.

Now, most of you also know that, when you start to talk like that to yourself and justify your position like this, you know something bad is going to happen. And today, it did just day. We opened lower in the futures. After cash opened, that too came down lower which push price much lower. I took the loss and soak up the pain.. I'm wrong and I got out, which I'm glad, as price just decided to puke further and went as low as 22.50 in the end.

Taking the loss when you are wrong is a good thing. But there was one thing I could have done better.. If I were not married to my position and thinking rationally, I would have placed a sell stop just below the price before cash opened at about 40 level to cut and reverse. But sometimes, it is not easy because your mind is still in the frame of thinking that things can get better.. all because of the convincing argument I made to myself of how price will go back up and etc..

I just wanted to point out that thinking and justifying a bad position more often than not turns out bad in my experience and I'm sure its the same for you too in terms of trading. Trade what the chart or the tape tells you.. not what you feel or think is right.

---

One of the thing that turned out great was.. after taking the loss, I decided to sit on hand for the rest of the day not trading anything.. I wasn't in the right frame of mind and I don't want to compound my mistakes further. The loss we can earn back next time. But if I still traded in this confused frame of mind, more often than not, the ending isn't so pretty again. So I did the right thing.

But the kicker was, one of my trader Teo did a bold move today.. when price touch a low of about 28-29 and rebounded to 35, he had the guts to short there nearing the end of the day... right after he got in, price puked and made a low of 22.50.. that brightened my day a bit.. I'm glad he's so brave despite the earlier loss I caused..

-------

So.. that's it for today.. tomorrow is a brand new day.. new day, fresh start.

Goodnight folks. See you all tomorrow morning. :)

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 16th May 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright.. lets proceed with the US market updates.

The US market was up at some point but gave back most of the gain in the end. Here are the closing for the three indices.


Dow12,632-63-0.50%
Nasdaq2,894-9-0.30%
S&P 5001,331-8-0.57%

Tonight we will have FOMC minutes, building permits and a host of other numbers so traders will be watching that. There is a possibility that the market may give way a bit more so traders need to watch out for that too.

Lets move on to our local market.

----

Yesterday was another big down move day and we are not about 27 points away from the 20ema. Whenever price pulled so far away from the 20ema, it will tend to go back to test it again or the 20ema will come down to price instead.

There is a possibility that we might break down further should news in the region gets worst also. We will let the price action of the coming days be our guide.

I still have some longs from the low 50s and if things don't look right, I will get out. But if price action seems to hold, then I might hold them to go back to test the 20ema in the coming days. Watch your levels and trade carefully.

Here are the levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1554, 1558, 1562, 1565
Lower Support:  1550, 1554, 1538, 1530

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1564, 1567, 1571, 1573
Lower Support: 1561, 1558, 1553, 1550, 1540

Trade safe and I'll update again if there are anything important later.

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Daily Summary - 15th May 2012

Good evening traders,

Lets proceed with today's daily summary.

FKLI 30 Mins Chart

---------

FKLI Daily Chart

-------

Cash Daily

-----

We traded to these levels today:

FKLI

Opened: 1561
High: 1564.50
Low: 1547.50
Closed: 1549.50

Cash Index

Opened: 1570.75
High: 1571.24
Low: 1559.01
Closed: 1561.07

-------

Alright today was basically a short sellers market.

In the morning, we opened at 61 and price was pretty much undecided. We went up to make a high of 64.50 after cash opened. I did not make any trades in the morning as I was really occupied! Damn..

But one of my trader, Teo, decided to short at 83 and I got a better fill at 83.50. Price just 'kaputed' to 49.50! What a trade.. All these while I was getting phone calls and some other stuff and I couldn't even get into the market! damn..

After price made a low of 49.50, we started to bounce back up to 58 before lunch. Lunch opened at 59 and made a high of 59.50. Price came down to the 55.50 area and stayed in the 55.50 56.50 range for a long time. At one point we even went up as high as 57.50 in the afternoon. Then we chopped back down and once we broke 84.50 on the low side, and cash market closed down lower, price just gave way and we made a low of 47.50.]

Teo eventually closed his short at 56 for a decent gain. We were thinking to reduce the risk by closing one contract and swinging the other, but ended up closing both. It would have been a freaking good short.

Now we have some net position long and holding over night. We will see how it goes tomorrow and hopefully we will see a pause in the decline and a test back to the 20ema soon.

I will update again tomorrow. Good night and see you all in the next post!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning updates - 15th May 2012

Guys I'm in a rush this morning.

Here are the levels

FLKI: upper: 65, 69, 72, 75, 80
lower: 58, 55, 50, 45, 38

Cash: upper: upper: 76, 80, 83, 85
lower: 73, 71, 67, 64

Ciao!

What a day! Daily summary for 14th May 2012

Good evening traders!

Wow.. Today we caught the big one! Haha! :)

Alright lets proceed with the daily summary!

30 Mins FKLI Chart

--------

FKLI Daily

-------

Cash Daily

------

Haha.. what a day.. we traded to the following levels today:

FKLI

Opened 1582.50
High: 1585.50
Low: 1560.50
Closed: 1562

Cash Index

Opened: 1582.06
High: 1584.63
Low: 1574.67
Closed: 1575.08

We caught a nice trend today..

Futures gaped up 7 points and made a high at 85.50 which was 10 points from the last close. Then cash opened and made a high of 84 too which was the high of the day. It could not break the trend line above so just following simple rules, we shorted the market at 80.

Market did briefly push down to 77 in the morning before recovering to 82 and closed at lunch at 80-80.50. Lunch opened at 78.50. We were in the money and now I know that the longs are stuck! haha.. I had set my initial target at 75.50 and after discussing the trades with a few other traders including Mr Lee from Bintulu and Teo, moved the target lower to 74. Eventually, moved the target to 70 where we got filled.

Honestly, had I been more daring, I would have held it as it eventually made a low of 60.50!! I knew cash was coming down but I decided to lock in the profits. A good day indeed, but it also goes to show how much I still need to improve to let my profits run on a day like this.

A good day nonetheless!

---

On a non related subject, one of client had 2 spreads in cpo today. In the morning, looking at how things are so bearish in the FCPO, I took off one of the long legs and that paid off nicely too. Then I replaced the leg to lock in the profits by afternoon. I should have held it longer as the FCPO just kept tanking!

In the evening, I though price would rebound in the FCPO so I took off one of the short legs. I was wrong as price came down more! wow.. lol.. couldn't believe it! So I gave back a lot of the gains made in the morning but still had some profit in the FCPO spread trade.

-----

So what to expect tomorrow?

Dow is down about 100 as of this writing just 20 minuted before cash open. I would like to see how the market perform tonight. That would give us an indication for tomorrow.

FKLI closed a 13 point discount to cash market today. Simply amazing. Too bad I didn't caught the last 9 points down but I'm happy we have caught at least 10 points today.

Perhaps we will have some pull back tomorrow because the discount is so much and the drop today was just simply huge? We will find out tomorrow.

I will post the levels before the market opens tomorrow.

Take care and ciao everyone!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 14 May 2012

Morning Traders,

Lets get rolling!

Lets look at last Friday's close for the US market.

The Dow closed down 34, Nasdaq closed unchanged and S&P500 closed down 5.

S&P futures are now trading down 3 and Dow futures are down 17 as of 8.12am. Futures opened lower and it is now going back to fill the gap. We will see what happens after the gap is filled.

If you haven't read the weekly updates, you can click here to read it.

Alright. Seasonally, it is believed that May and midyear onwards are quite bearish months. If you would look at the charts, you will find the same thing.. more biased to the downside and the upside seems more limited. Perhaps it is due to many factors including the seasonal economic factors. However on the charts, prices are just trading within a range and we have to wait for a break out for a confirmation on where this market wants to go. If we take a position within this range, whether it is long or short, it is basically a 50/50 shot.

So we will wait for more price development in the coming days.

-----
FKLI

*guys I will update the charts a bit later*

Alright.. we have basically traded sideways for one and a half weeks in the cash market. In the futures market, we have both sided market, but basically, we are trading sideways too.

I think things are not about to change until we see a definite breakout from this range.

Cash needs to close out of the 92-93 and 75-78 range while FKLI needs to break out of 90s and 70 range convincingly to determine the next trend.

So trade carefully and make sure the support and resistance levels are holding before entering a trade.

Here are the levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1577, 1580, 1583, 1585, 1588
Lower Support: 1572, 1570, 1567, 1565

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1588, 1590-91, 1593
Lower Support: 1583, 1580, 1576, 1573

I'll update the weekly range a bit later.

Trade safe!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Happy Mother's Day Weekend Update! S&P500, Soybean Oil, Soybean, Wheat, and Corn Futures and BONUS!

Haha.. Afternoon traders,

Today is really a special day so don't forget to wish all of the women in your lives a great Happy Mother's Day! :)

Alright lets proceed with the weekend update for US market.

---
S&P 500 Futures - ES

We traded to these following levels this week:

Opened: 1354
High: 1370.25
Low: 1339.25
Closed: 1350

Our levels posted last week was:

The possible upper weekly range is: 1420
The possible lower weekly range is: 1336


Alright.. so we started the week with Sarkozy losing losing the election which set the tone for the the rest of the down week. We broke down from the flag pattern but price held at the support as well. The low of the week as quite close to our projected low of the week at 1336.


Maybe posting a daily chart would give you a clearer picture of the price action this week.


ES Daily Chart

So this week, we really tried to push down hard.. volume had increased too but we still made no head way. Support seems to still be holding especially when you have the 20ema in the weekly chart at 1339.


What are we forming here? Another flag? Will this be a bearish flag where we break down further after this? Or will we go up a bit to test the 20ema in the daily chart at around the 70-74 area next week?


Well.. We will just have to wait to see what happens. We have to be prepared for both possibilities and the price action could very well be news driven as we are going to have some big numbers coming in the whole of next week with the G8 meeting coming on Friday and Saturday which could throw a wrench into the plans of either the bulls or bears.

But for me, with the inability of price to push down further the whole of last week, I think we might see a grinding week to go back up to test the 20ema if things maintain status quo. But price could get a help with a push in either direction from the numbers coming out midweek such as the FOMC meeting, Building Permits and Unemployment claims numbers so we will be on the lookout for that as well.

Honestly looking at the charts, I think even if we break down, it should just be a low swing and not a catastrophic type of down move because we still have many levels of support below. So nothing to panic to be honest. So we will be following the S&P closely next week for the que to our local market next week.

Here are the projected weekly range:

The possible upper weekly range is: 1385
The possible lower weekly range is: 1328 and an outside chance to 1309 if we break further.

------

Lets move on to the CME grains now.

---

Soybean Oil Futures

We traded to these following levels this week:

Opened: 53.47
High: 53.97
Low: 52.09
Closed: 52.12

Our levels posted last week was:

The possible upper weekly range is: 55.66
The possible lower weekly range is: 52.00

The low of the week was almost smack on to our projected weekly low at 52.00! This is why we need to try and identify the possible support and resistance areas with the aid of price action and trend lines.

Pretty tough week for the Soybean Oil futures. We broke down further and faster than it took for us to move up a couple if weeks ago. See a coincidence why our FCPO came down too? I hope you do.

We closed the week as a big red bearish bar again and closed at near the low and it is the 5th red weekly close in a row.

We are now trading at near the lower triangle trend line, which should provide some measure of support here at about 51.00. If we break down further, there will still be some levels of support below so I think this would not fall into oblivion yet next week so don't worry.

But I would want to watch these grains closely because all of them seems to be on the downswing path at this moment which includes our FCPO contract. Longs in our FCPO would want to see that these grains hold here and maybe have a technical bounce of some sort and of course, the shorts are having the laugh of their life. :)

So here are the weekly levels:

The possible upper weekly range is: 55
The possible lower weekly range is: 51 and an outside chance to touch 50.30 if we break further.

-----

Soybean Futures

We traded to these following levels this week:

Opened: 1470.25
High: 1478.75
Low: 1402.50
Closed: 1403.75

Our levels for last week was:
The possible upper weekly range: 1536
The possible lower weekly range: 1420

Last week in our weekly post,we said that if Soybean Futures, being the strongest of all of the grains product we are tracking make a downside break, we should see increased selling in our FCPO too which was the case. The uptrend channel has been broken now and we will have to see which level can break this downside swing for this contract.


Now, if you ask me, I would say that is a very scary looking big red candle bar in the weekly. But after rallying for such a long time, I think a pullback is in order. Price can't maintain its upwards path without some measure of pull backs especially with all the grains also being so weak. The shorts are having a blast at the moment, but even they would have to take profit at some point by buying back the contract which should provide some support for price. I'm not suggesting that would be this week. We will let price action be our guide.

We still have some plenty of support levels for this contract so I think an end of the world fall is not in the cards that's for sure. We will follow the price action for this contract closely as usual and will keep you updated.

Here are the levels for next week:

The possible upper weekly range: 1465
The possible lower weekly range: 1350

------

Wheat Futures

We traded to these following levels this week:

Opened: 608.50
High: 621.25
Low: 592.25
Closed: 596.50

Our levels for last week was:

The possible upper weekly range: 655.5
The possible lower weekly range: 576

Alright another bearish close for Wheat Futures. However, the loss was small and the support levels seems to be holding nicely still. The lower flag pattern (thin blue line) is still holding nicely for now and should we break down further, we will still have some support to hold us somewhat. Wheat is still trading within the choppy range and will still be for the foreseeable future. There are no clear cut price trends here at all.

But we will still be following its intraday price action because it can still effect the price of the other grains product which includes our FCPO prices.

Here are the trading levels for next week:

The possible upper weekly range: 655
The possible lower weekly range: 576

If we break 576 and close strongly below that, then a possible downswing is in order. So we will be watching the levels closely.

-------

Corn Futures

We traded these following levels this week:

Opened:  615.75
High: 632
Low: 572.25
Closed: 581.75

Our levels for last week was:

The possible upper weekly range: 645
The possible lower weekly range: 675

We were quite close with the low of the week at 675 as price made a low of 572.25 briefly before pulling back to close at 581.75

To be honest, I think the Friday's down push in our FCPO started with the really weak close in Corn during Thursday's cash hours trading.

We have now close convincingly outside of the triangle pattern. There will still be some level of support below but if we continue down further, this could be the start of the downside swing in this contract. If this is the case, it will definitely effect the other grains product which includes our FCPO prices. So gonna be tracking this contract closely in the coming days.

Here are the levels for next week:

The possible upper weekly range: 616
The possible lower weekly range: 640

-------
BONUS!!


Since we are here how, lets look at.... drum roll please.... da da da da taaaa! JP Whale Morgan! Haha.. Just for the fun of it.. :)

Alright so JPM is tanking due to the recent prop trading losses. But I what I want you to see is that this is not the first time JPM has reversed when price reach near $47.50. In fact, it has been doing that since 2007 for almost every single year! How reliable!

If you would look at the top of the shaded area, you will see the $47.50 has always been the resistance point for JPM.

If you had bought a JPM May $40 Put on Wednesday at $0.50 cents for a cheap pot shot, and the news for the London Whale debacle came out on after Cash close on Thursday, your Puts would be worth +500% now at $3.05 per contract.

Pretty cool for a few day's worth of return huh? I have heard of people taking such trades especially closer to expiration.

But the reasonable trade that I might have taken would be the AUG $40 Puts at about $2.20 and the return after Friday would be about 100% as the puts would be worth about $4.40.

100% is alright and not that impossible to be honest. I had Boeing puts made 300% for me during the flash crash in 2010 in 1 day and I had LO calls made me 300% also in two weeks time frame last year.

----

Anyway, have a great weekend all. Have a great happy mothers day and get rested for next week.

Ciao!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Summary for 11th May 2012

Good afternoon traders,

Had my calendars filled with stuff this weekend and attending a friend's wedding tonight.

So I thought I better finish the summary and the weekend update while I still have a few hours to spare now. So lets move on to the program!

----
30 Mins FKLI Chart

--------

30 Mins Cash Chart

-------

Daily FKLI Chart

Alright we traded to these following levels today:

Opened: 1582
High: 1583.50
Low: 1572
Closed: 1575.50

Alright.. Look at the cash chart and you would know that it was a freakish day. But if you were using simple trend lines, that would have kept you on the right side of the market.

We open 1582 despite US futures being down hard. We even made a new high of 83.50.

After Cash opened, we started to drift lower for the rest of the day. We were trading around the 79 and 80.50 area before we broke down further to 76 and closed for lunch at 77.50.

We opened lunch at 76 and not long after that, cash flashed down 10 points and we made a low of 72. We recovered from there as cash went back to its original 84 level and we touched an afternoon high of 78 before closing at 75.50.

------

This week was a really tough week to grind out profits. With a combination of so many factors like our market being supported despite the regional falling like lead, and more importantly, when prices are trading at the 20ema, prices are going to get choppy. I hope that we have a nice breakout either side of the market soon for a clearer trend to trade.

We closed below the 20ema for this Friday's price action, but we also made a long tail as the support held nicely.

If we can break below 70-72 area nicely, then we might have a nice down swing to come.

If a break and close above 83-85 area, we might have a chance of upside swing.

I was just discussing with one of my trader Teo that with the election coming up, the upside seems to be quite limited, more so if the opposition wins more seats, etc. So we might be looking to find any push up as an opportunity to sell at a better price.

------

So see you all tomorrow! Get rested for a fresh week!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Digression - 11th May 2012 - How do you deal with trading losses?

Evening traders,

I'm going to digress a bit tonight and talk about how you deal with losses. I will do the daily summary for today's action sometime this weekend.

So the topic is: How do you deal with trading losses?

Hookay.. lets do a reality check and see what's up now.

Alright.. I had long positions for two accounts yesterday and the US market closed largely unchanged which was a good thing. I was thinking of holding it for a nice up swing as the market has failed to push down despite making new lows and pushing down real hard.

But JP Morgan dropped a bomb on many of us after the market closed today with the London Whale debacle.

But all was still good today because the longs was closed out at opening for a point profit, which was ok, considering that the Dow futures was down with about 80 points before we opened.

Then I took a really stupid position and long at 81 in the morning. I immediately know that the position was doomed because I regretted entering right after I was filled. I tried to get out with 0.5 profit if I could, but I couldn't. I could have hit the market at 80.50 and got filled, but I was thinking to at least cover the commissions at least. So I held on to a position that I didn't want, which really sucked for me.

Then we had a bizarre market today because Cash flashed down 10 points today from 1584 to 1574, only to go back to 84 a few minutes later. I closed my long position at near the lows because of that and after a while, the market went back up which was what I was expecting all along before the 10 points drop. Honestly being quite new to the local market here, this was da shit. I think you rarely, if ever, see such things happening in a liquid and developed market. But we are trading the local market now so we have to deal with whatever the market throws at us. If you would excuse my language, its pretty 'f' up if you ask me. And the regulators are wondering why our market never grows. Which is a big 'lol' for me.

Anyway, I had a bad entry, JP dropped a bomb on the market, and we had a freak flash down in the cash market. I can take a loss like a man, even though it is a bitter pill to swallow at times because you know it all started with the bad entry and not exiting the position immediately right after realizing that the position is wrong.

And to get to the bottom of the story, honestly, the losses was small as well. But why am I getting so worked up over this small loss?

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Well, the comfortable thing to do would be to blame the market, to blame JP Morgan, to blame the flash cash drop and reverse. But doing that would not make me grow as a trader.

Now, even though the loss is just a few points, I feel really bad because the accounts entered on my advice. For my own trades, each time I get hit on my stop losses, it would be way more than what these two accounts lose combined. But this is not the point.

The question is, how do you deal with losses? Do you take it like a man or a women? Do you learn from your mistakes?

For me, here are my philosophy on taking losses.

1) If I entered with a good set up, but the market still went against me, then I did the right thing and it was a good loss. I don't feel bad about it because I know that entering on good set ups will benefit me in the long term.

2) If I entered the market and it is based on some shaky conviction, and the trade eventually went against me like today, then I would really feel the brunt of the experience saying to me, 'you are repeating some really silly mistakes again!'. This really is the killer.. I really hate losing, but what I hate more is losing foolishly.

3) If I entered the market on shaky conviction and based on luck, and the market went in my favor, I would feel happy that I made money, but I also know that this is bad for me in the long term because I would get into the belief that lower probability trades can make money too! Which of course is a bad thing. It would develop a bad habit of taking risky trades instead of good and solid set ups.

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So we lost a few points today. A small hit to the portfolio, but a big hit to me personally. What really kicked me over was that I entered a bad trade without confirmation AND not getting out immediately after realizing I was wrong and trying to save a few bucks for commission.

If I was really on the ball, I would have been on the right side of the market instead, which I should be if I had followed my rule.

A pretty messed up day for me personally. I take trading very seriously so screwing up like this feels pretty bad no matter what the size of the losses are.

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So, gonna get rested for the weekend. Starting fresh again next week. No Jpm bomb or some freaking flash cash drop is gonna stop this trader here. :)

Have a good weekend all.


Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 11 May 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright lets get moving.

The Dow closed up 20 points or about 0.16% at 12855
S&P closed up 3 points or 0.25% at 1358
Nasdaq closed down 1 point or -0.04% at 2934

Alright we closed as a green bar last night. Which is a good thing. However, the futures are now trading lower with Dow down 80 and S&P down 9.75. We are trading near our support of 1343 here and we will see if that level holds. Today is Friday and we have numbers tonight and is also the week leading to expirations week so hopefully we will have two side to the market.

Alright lets look at our local market

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Ok.. its the final trading day of the week.. I have some long positions.. there was no good news last night in the US but there was no bad news either.. Looks like we are going to be in a trading range for a while more perhaps?

I'm thinking whether I should take these long position off or keep them on. So we will have to see how it goes later.

I was looking at the past chart for the FKLI and the recent supported prices where we have many green bars which seems like it is artificially being supported was being repeated in the past too. Perhaps it is a survival function for the type of market we are in where we the general players are not allowed to short the market? Points for ponder..

Well, since it is a Friday, I would look to see if we have range trading day and if yes, I would be looking to fade the extremes today. I can't see a high powered breakout today so I will be careful not to buy at the top and selling at the low, but in any case, I will be on the alert anyhow so that I do not be caught blind sided should a breakout occurs however unlikely.

Here are the trading levels for today:

FKLI

Upper resistance 1583, 1585, 1587, 1589
Lower support: 1580, 1577, 1575, 1573

Cash Index

Upper resistance: 1590, 1593, 1595
Lower support: 1583, 1580, 1578

Take care and trade safe all. I will update here if there are anything urgent. Make some money!


Best Wishes,
Tech Trader