Wow, a bullish USDA report caused a big gap up during open for the CME grains.
If we can keep this level, our FCPO will gap up on opening again too.
Will update again when necessary.
Best Regards,
Tech Trader
Friday, 30 March 2012
Market Summary - 30th March 2012
Evening Traders,
Alright here are the market summary for today.
KLCI Cash Index
Opened at 1590.00 from 1585.00 the previous day.
High 1596
Low 1588
Close 1596
FKLI April Contract
Opened 1582 from 1582.50 the previous day
High 1591.50
Low 1581.00
Close 1584.50
What a great day we had to an other wise choppy week. In my opinion, with no important economic data coming out tonight, traders are more willing to take position as shown by the price action of today compared with the days (Monday to Thursday) where data were being released daily. I expect the US market to be doing the same tonight with nice ranges to trade with but will also take note in mind of bounces and pull back as it is a Friday.
In the morning update, we expected today to be slightly choppy range trading and slightly upside biased day.
Our levels in the morning was as follows:
April Contract:
Upper Resistance: 1588 and 1591
Lower Support: 1580, 1578 and 1574
Today, the low traded for April contract was in fact 1581 which was very close to our 1st level of support of 1580.00. Then we traded to test our first level of resistance at 1588 and then to 1591. The high of the day was in fact 1591.50 so we were pretty close by 1 tick only. After touching 1591.5, we actually sold off sharply to 1583 level before closing at 1584.50.
The cash index in fact performed way better than we expected for the day, but in fact, closed at the high of the week's range which we have indicated in our weekly forecast in the beginning of this week which was the 1595 range.
So as you can see, we made some really good calls today of the direction of the market based on the direction and price action indicated by the overnight market namely the US market. Now here is the thing about co-relation. It doesn't always work 100% of the time because the market is a dynamic thing. We need to take whatever information that are relevant out there, then use that as a guide and apply those information into our local market. Also, things and conditions changes by the minute so as a prudent trader, you need to be aware of these changes and be ready to take your profit or exit the position if you are being caught in the wrong direction.
So we did a few things right today which are:
1) Identified the right support levels where we can take an expected long position and where to cut loss if we are wrong.
2) Identified the possible resistance where we can take our profit
3) Knowing that during Fridays, price action tend to be choppy as a lot of traders do not like to hold positions over the weekend due to the uncertainty and would likely lighten their position accordingly as indicated by the late pull back from the highs.
So overall, I think this was a good end to the week and we did in fact had an up week and we did in fact tested the high of the week of 1595 in the cash market as indicated in our weekly forecast in the begining of this week. You can recap and read about it here. :)
Alright, I will update the FCPO summary shortly..
------------------------
FCPO
Here are the summary for the FCPO contracts.
We traded to these levels today:
Open 3437 from previous day's close of 3456
High 3445
Low 3426
Close 3433
We expected that sellers would pile on the selling momentum today with buyers taking their profit in line with the other 4 grains futures that we are tracking namely Soybean Oil, Soybean, Wheat and Corn Futures we have indicated in our morning update. But in fact, there was actually opportunities for both the buyers and sellers today.
The market opened at 3437, which was around the area of our first level of support at 3436. We then traded briefly to a high of 3445 before the selling came in to push this down to 3426, which was above our second level of support of 3419. Now to be honest, I don't know if I would go long here.. but I suppose some traders would have taken the long trade here.. I would have preferred to wait for price to bounce back up and sell again after that.
Then we traded for a period of time in our first level of support area of 36-39 area before trying to break and push above. We manage to trade to 3444 on the second try but couldnt make a new high for the day. From there, seller came back in to pile on the selling after realizing the lack of conviction from buyers to push this to new high and we subsequently sold off to 26-27 area.
So.. looking forward to the week ahead. Stay tuned to the weekly update which we will talk about the possible weekly range on the KLCI, FCPO, Soybean Oil, Soybean, Wheat and Corn Futures and what are the contingencies if prices traded outside those ranges i.e reversal of the market.
Wishing everyone a great weekend ahead!
Trade safe and ciao!
Best Regards,
Tech Trader
Alright here are the market summary for today.
KLCI Cash Index
Opened at 1590.00 from 1585.00 the previous day.
High 1596
Low 1588
Close 1596
FKLI April Contract
Opened 1582 from 1582.50 the previous day
High 1591.50
Low 1581.00
Close 1584.50
What a great day we had to an other wise choppy week. In my opinion, with no important economic data coming out tonight, traders are more willing to take position as shown by the price action of today compared with the days (Monday to Thursday) where data were being released daily. I expect the US market to be doing the same tonight with nice ranges to trade with but will also take note in mind of bounces and pull back as it is a Friday.
In the morning update, we expected today to be slightly choppy range trading and slightly upside biased day.
Our levels in the morning was as follows:
April Contract:
Upper Resistance: 1588 and 1591
Lower Support: 1580, 1578 and 1574
Today, the low traded for April contract was in fact 1581 which was very close to our 1st level of support of 1580.00. Then we traded to test our first level of resistance at 1588 and then to 1591. The high of the day was in fact 1591.50 so we were pretty close by 1 tick only. After touching 1591.5, we actually sold off sharply to 1583 level before closing at 1584.50.
The cash index in fact performed way better than we expected for the day, but in fact, closed at the high of the week's range which we have indicated in our weekly forecast in the beginning of this week which was the 1595 range.
So as you can see, we made some really good calls today of the direction of the market based on the direction and price action indicated by the overnight market namely the US market. Now here is the thing about co-relation. It doesn't always work 100% of the time because the market is a dynamic thing. We need to take whatever information that are relevant out there, then use that as a guide and apply those information into our local market. Also, things and conditions changes by the minute so as a prudent trader, you need to be aware of these changes and be ready to take your profit or exit the position if you are being caught in the wrong direction.
So we did a few things right today which are:
1) Identified the right support levels where we can take an expected long position and where to cut loss if we are wrong.
2) Identified the possible resistance where we can take our profit
3) Knowing that during Fridays, price action tend to be choppy as a lot of traders do not like to hold positions over the weekend due to the uncertainty and would likely lighten their position accordingly as indicated by the late pull back from the highs.
So overall, I think this was a good end to the week and we did in fact had an up week and we did in fact tested the high of the week of 1595 in the cash market as indicated in our weekly forecast in the begining of this week. You can recap and read about it here. :)
Alright, I will update the FCPO summary shortly..
------------------------
FCPO
Here are the summary for the FCPO contracts.
We traded to these levels today:
Open 3437 from previous day's close of 3456
High 3445
Low 3426
Close 3433
We expected that sellers would pile on the selling momentum today with buyers taking their profit in line with the other 4 grains futures that we are tracking namely Soybean Oil, Soybean, Wheat and Corn Futures we have indicated in our morning update. But in fact, there was actually opportunities for both the buyers and sellers today.
The market opened at 3437, which was around the area of our first level of support at 3436. We then traded briefly to a high of 3445 before the selling came in to push this down to 3426, which was above our second level of support of 3419. Now to be honest, I don't know if I would go long here.. but I suppose some traders would have taken the long trade here.. I would have preferred to wait for price to bounce back up and sell again after that.
Then we traded for a period of time in our first level of support area of 36-39 area before trying to break and push above. We manage to trade to 3444 on the second try but couldnt make a new high for the day. From there, seller came back in to pile on the selling after realizing the lack of conviction from buyers to push this to new high and we subsequently sold off to 26-27 area.
So.. looking forward to the week ahead. Stay tuned to the weekly update which we will talk about the possible weekly range on the KLCI, FCPO, Soybean Oil, Soybean, Wheat and Corn Futures and what are the contingencies if prices traded outside those ranges i.e reversal of the market.
Wishing everyone a great weekend ahead!
Trade safe and ciao!
Best Regards,
Tech Trader
Morning Update - FCPO - 30 March 2012
Ok here is the second part of the morning update on FCPO.
Firstly, we look at the 4 grains futures that we are tracking currently.
The closing prices are:
Soybean Oil Future 53.59 down from 54.60
Soybean Futures 1355.6 down from 1367.40
Wheat Futures 612.6 down from 630.80
Corn Futures 604 down from 620.20
Wow.. as the chart have shown yesterday, Wheat and Corn Futures really was bearish and came down a lot. This has pulled the priced of Soybean Oil and Soybean Futures down too.
Although Soybean Oil and Soybean Futures have pulled back a bit of the deficit, it looks like a dead cat bounce on the hourly chart and not any significant recovery. Wheat and Corn futures are still trading at the lower range of the close.
Expect our FCPO to open lower again today.
Firstly, we look at the 4 grains futures that we are tracking currently.
The closing prices are:
Soybean Oil Future 53.59 down from 54.60
Soybean Futures 1355.6 down from 1367.40
Wheat Futures 612.6 down from 630.80
Corn Futures 604 down from 620.20
Wow.. as the chart have shown yesterday, Wheat and Corn Futures really was bearish and came down a lot. This has pulled the priced of Soybean Oil and Soybean Futures down too.
Although Soybean Oil and Soybean Futures have pulled back a bit of the deficit, it looks like a dead cat bounce on the hourly chart and not any significant recovery. Wheat and Corn futures are still trading at the lower range of the close.
Expect our FCPO to open lower again today.
What to expect for our FCPO today:
I think the sellers will take this opportunity pile on the selling momentum and buyers to take their profit.
The possible support areas are as per below:
Support: 3436, 3419 and 3393.
For daily scalpers, I would be more inclined to trade along with the momentum of the current force in the market which is the sell side. But if you are looking to go long, look for areas of support and wait to see if these areas are holding well. If the support areas are holding well, set a buy stop just outside the range area and when it breaks up, the buying momentum will hit your buy stop along in its push up. Be prepared to take quick profits though.
Perhaps after this pullback we will resume the uptrend again in the coming weeks. We will let price action do the talking.
Trade safe all. I will update again here or the side bar on the right if there are any significant changes to the market.
Best Regards,
Tech Trader
Morning Update - FKLI - 30 March 2012
Morning All,
We will start off with an update of the overseas market.
The Dow closed up +20 points or 0.15%
The S&P500 closed down -2 points or 0.16%
The Nasdaq closed down -10 points of 0.31%
The market reacted negatively to the unemployment claims data which rose slightly higher. The Dow closed slightly positive while the S&P and Nasdaq closed slightly down. At one point during the night, the S&P was down more than 10 points! Then it slowly recovered from that point and are back trading within yesterday afternoon's range. Whew!
Also, take note that we will have no significant economic data tonight that will effect the market in a big way.
For the S&P contract, we have actually touched the lower range of our weekly forecast range and in the Daily, have actually touched the 20ema line and rebounded from there. So is the pullback done? Is the market ready for the ride up its momentum again? Well, it remains to be seen. We will follow the price action closely and trade acordingly.
How will this affect us:
FKLI
Alright.. In the daily chart, the bar yesterday actually traded just outside the lower trend line. Now, when prices trade outside the trend line, it doesn't automatically mean that the trend has been broken. For example, after a strong rally or sharp sell off, price tend to consolidate and during such consolidation, price trading outside of the trend line is quite common.
However, even though we suspect that this break is not of too much significant, it does signify that the buyers are slightly weakening and are not able to defend the levels as well to prevent the break of the trend line. We will need to be watchful for signs of further development in the coming weeks for trend changes.
As for today, with the US market rebounding off the support with sufficient energy to reduce the deficit, I am slightly encouraged by that and combined with the fact that there are no significant economic data which might keep traders out of the market. But please bear in mind that today is a Friday and many traders don't like to hold position into the weekend so will lighten their position accordingly.
I expect a slightly choppy range trading day to a slightly upside biased day.
Below are the Support and Resistance levels from the charts:
Cash Index:
Upper Resistance: 1588 and 1591
Lower Support: 1582, 1580 and 1578
April Contract:
Upper Resistance: 1588 and 1591
Lower Support: 1580, 1578 and 1574
Alright, trade safe and all the best!
Best Regards,
Tech Trader
We will start off with an update of the overseas market.
The Dow closed up +20 points or 0.15%
The S&P500 closed down -2 points or 0.16%
The Nasdaq closed down -10 points of 0.31%
The market reacted negatively to the unemployment claims data which rose slightly higher. The Dow closed slightly positive while the S&P and Nasdaq closed slightly down. At one point during the night, the S&P was down more than 10 points! Then it slowly recovered from that point and are back trading within yesterday afternoon's range. Whew!
Also, take note that we will have no significant economic data tonight that will effect the market in a big way.
For the S&P contract, we have actually touched the lower range of our weekly forecast range and in the Daily, have actually touched the 20ema line and rebounded from there. So is the pullback done? Is the market ready for the ride up its momentum again? Well, it remains to be seen. We will follow the price action closely and trade acordingly.
How will this affect us:
FKLI
Alright.. In the daily chart, the bar yesterday actually traded just outside the lower trend line. Now, when prices trade outside the trend line, it doesn't automatically mean that the trend has been broken. For example, after a strong rally or sharp sell off, price tend to consolidate and during such consolidation, price trading outside of the trend line is quite common.
However, even though we suspect that this break is not of too much significant, it does signify that the buyers are slightly weakening and are not able to defend the levels as well to prevent the break of the trend line. We will need to be watchful for signs of further development in the coming weeks for trend changes.
As for today, with the US market rebounding off the support with sufficient energy to reduce the deficit, I am slightly encouraged by that and combined with the fact that there are no significant economic data which might keep traders out of the market. But please bear in mind that today is a Friday and many traders don't like to hold position into the weekend so will lighten their position accordingly.
I expect a slightly choppy range trading day to a slightly upside biased day.
Below are the Support and Resistance levels from the charts:
Cash Index:
Upper Resistance: 1588 and 1591
Lower Support: 1582, 1580 and 1578
April Contract:
Upper Resistance: 1588 and 1591
Lower Support: 1580, 1578 and 1574
Alright, trade safe and all the best!
Best Regards,
Tech Trader
Thursday, 29 March 2012
Daily Market Summary
Alright here are the market summary:
KLCI
Here are the traded prices for the FKLI April Contract:
Open at 1581.50 down from 1586.00 from the previous day.
Close at 1582.50
High 1585.00
Low 1587.00
This morning we opened lower in line with the lower close in the US market. Then we quickly traded up to 85 and in a flash, came back down to the 78-79 levels. In our morning update, we identified 1580 and 1578 as our point of support.
Prices tested both levels and the low was in fact 1578.00.
Then prices traded around the 79-80 levels for a period of time and couldn't break down further. So if you were scalping and wanted to go long, this was an opportunity to do so and your profit target would have been around 2-3 points max.
Why only 2+ points you may ask?
This is because of a 3 main reasons:
1) The general trend indicated a pullback from the recent up move.
2) The other regional market are in fact trading lower today.
3) Sellers would look to ride the down momentum by selling the bounce up each time.
So it is more safer to just scalp 2 points and keep my profit as the chance of sellers coming in to sell taking cue from the regional weak performance was likely.
So here we are.. Trading around the area of support.. will this break down below the area of support? if yes, can the sellers maintain the selling pressure enough to push this down far enough? Or we will hold here and continue the uptrend to test the 1600-06 level? We'll leave that for tomorrow after we have seen how the overseas market has performed. :)
------------
FCPO
Ok here are the traded prices for our FCPO.
Opened 3460 lower from previous day's close of 3473
Close 3456
High 3477
Low 3445
In our morning update, we identified the areas of support and resistance was around 3467, 3436 and 3418 level.
After price open below our first level of support, it was able to trade around the 50s level for most of the morning and only traded to a low of 3445 which was quite near our second level of support. We were mostly trading in a tight range today.
What this can mean is that the buyers and sellers are quite balanced today and couldn't push the market strongly into either direction. Take note that the daily closing bar look like a Doji - give and take a few points.
In the Globex trading for the Soybean Oil and Soybean Futures, it was largly the same and trading withing a small range to with no immediate indication of any direction.
Wheat and Corn futures are actually a bit bearish looking and are making new lows from recent trades. So if these two contracts continue its march down further, it will most likely drag the Soybean Oil and Soybean Futures down along with it which will in turn effect our FCPO prices.
But we are not here to be prophet or fortune teller, talking ahead before the market has even moved. Doing that is called Gambling.
We are here to trade based on sound information and judgment from what the price action is telling us and based on sound technical analysis.. not intuition and guesses..
So we will see how the 4 cme grains product that we are tracking perform in the cash hours tonight and identify its effect on our local FCPO tomorrow.
Till then, have a great evening all. If you have any suggestion, do not hesitate to leave me an email or pm me. My contact information is down below in the About Me section.
Ciao!
Best Regards,
Tech Trader.
KLCI
Here are the traded prices for the FKLI April Contract:
Open at 1581.50 down from 1586.00 from the previous day.
Close at 1582.50
High 1585.00
Low 1587.00
This morning we opened lower in line with the lower close in the US market. Then we quickly traded up to 85 and in a flash, came back down to the 78-79 levels. In our morning update, we identified 1580 and 1578 as our point of support.
Prices tested both levels and the low was in fact 1578.00.
Then prices traded around the 79-80 levels for a period of time and couldn't break down further. So if you were scalping and wanted to go long, this was an opportunity to do so and your profit target would have been around 2-3 points max.
Why only 2+ points you may ask?
This is because of a 3 main reasons:
1) The general trend indicated a pullback from the recent up move.
2) The other regional market are in fact trading lower today.
3) Sellers would look to ride the down momentum by selling the bounce up each time.
So it is more safer to just scalp 2 points and keep my profit as the chance of sellers coming in to sell taking cue from the regional weak performance was likely.
So here we are.. Trading around the area of support.. will this break down below the area of support? if yes, can the sellers maintain the selling pressure enough to push this down far enough? Or we will hold here and continue the uptrend to test the 1600-06 level? We'll leave that for tomorrow after we have seen how the overseas market has performed. :)
------------
FCPO
Ok here are the traded prices for our FCPO.
Opened 3460 lower from previous day's close of 3473
Close 3456
High 3477
Low 3445
In our morning update, we identified the areas of support and resistance was around 3467, 3436 and 3418 level.
After price open below our first level of support, it was able to trade around the 50s level for most of the morning and only traded to a low of 3445 which was quite near our second level of support. We were mostly trading in a tight range today.
What this can mean is that the buyers and sellers are quite balanced today and couldn't push the market strongly into either direction. Take note that the daily closing bar look like a Doji - give and take a few points.
In the Globex trading for the Soybean Oil and Soybean Futures, it was largly the same and trading withing a small range to with no immediate indication of any direction.
Wheat and Corn futures are actually a bit bearish looking and are making new lows from recent trades. So if these two contracts continue its march down further, it will most likely drag the Soybean Oil and Soybean Futures down along with it which will in turn effect our FCPO prices.
But we are not here to be prophet or fortune teller, talking ahead before the market has even moved. Doing that is called Gambling.
We are here to trade based on sound information and judgment from what the price action is telling us and based on sound technical analysis.. not intuition and guesses..
So we will see how the 4 cme grains product that we are tracking perform in the cash hours tonight and identify its effect on our local FCPO tomorrow.
Till then, have a great evening all. If you have any suggestion, do not hesitate to leave me an email or pm me. My contact information is down below in the About Me section.
Ciao!
Best Regards,
Tech Trader.
Morning Update - Part 2 - FCPO
FCPO
Report on the overnight market:
The CME grains closed as per below:
Soybean Oil Future 54.60
Soybean Futures 1367.40
Wheat Futures 630.80
Corn Futures 620.20
The 4 CME Grains product that we are tracking mainly the Soybean Oil, Soybean, Wheat and Corn Futures closed lower in night trading.
Only Soybean Futures have recovered a major portion of its down move and is now trading at the levels of yesterday afternoon 1375 area. Soybean Oil Futures are following behind and have recovered about half of its down move and trading at 54.77 now.
Wheat and Corn are still trading near the low range of last nights cash close.
All of these will cause our FCPO to gap down again at opening.
During yesterday's trade, we were not able to trade higher than Tuesday's high of 3497. Seems like there are some selling interest in this 97-94 area from the charts combined with the downward pull of the 4 CME grains might have a depressing effect on the price of the FCPO contracts.
The general trend is still up for me and I think this is just a pullback from an upswing. Levels of support could be found at the area of 3467, 3436 and 3418 level.
I am encouraged with the recovery of the Soybean Futures, but am worried with the performance of the other contracts.
Best to wait for the price action to unfold before taking new position. We might go back to test the support levels before a continuation of this up trend. How I would scalp this is to identify the areas of consolidation and trade the break outs in either direction and taking cue from the performance of the 4 CME grains that we are tracking in Globex trading.
I will update again on any significant move in the other grains product.
Trade safe all.
Besr Regards,
Tech Trader
Report on the overnight market:
The CME grains closed as per below:
Soybean Oil Future 54.60
Soybean Futures 1367.40
Wheat Futures 630.80
Corn Futures 620.20
The 4 CME Grains product that we are tracking mainly the Soybean Oil, Soybean, Wheat and Corn Futures closed lower in night trading.
Only Soybean Futures have recovered a major portion of its down move and is now trading at the levels of yesterday afternoon 1375 area. Soybean Oil Futures are following behind and have recovered about half of its down move and trading at 54.77 now.
Wheat and Corn are still trading near the low range of last nights cash close.
All of these will cause our FCPO to gap down again at opening.
During yesterday's trade, we were not able to trade higher than Tuesday's high of 3497. Seems like there are some selling interest in this 97-94 area from the charts combined with the downward pull of the 4 CME grains might have a depressing effect on the price of the FCPO contracts.
The general trend is still up for me and I think this is just a pullback from an upswing. Levels of support could be found at the area of 3467, 3436 and 3418 level.
I am encouraged with the recovery of the Soybean Futures, but am worried with the performance of the other contracts.
Best to wait for the price action to unfold before taking new position. We might go back to test the support levels before a continuation of this up trend. How I would scalp this is to identify the areas of consolidation and trade the break outs in either direction and taking cue from the performance of the 4 CME grains that we are tracking in Globex trading.
I will update again on any significant move in the other grains product.
Trade safe all.
Besr Regards,
Tech Trader
Morning Update
Overseas Market
The Dow closed down -72 points or 0.54%
The S&P500 closed down -7 points or 0.49%
The Nasdaq closed down -15 points of 0.49%
We had another down day in the US but not by a large amount. Tonight we have one last important piece of economic data which is the Unemployment Claims. This data is closely watched by many traders as it tells the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week, which will in turn indicated if the country's economy is growing or shrinking.
Now is this pullback over? For me, the move down the past two days wasn't really strong and the support areas has held pretty well. Only after we have broken through the major support trend lines will I consider a probably trend change. For now, I am taking this as a up swing pullback.
How will this effect us: FKLI
I think we will see another day of profit taking and sellers piling on to take quick profits.
This is the chart of the March FKLI which will expire tomorrow.
The areas of support would be in the area of 1580 and 1578. If we have any strong spike below those levels with strong volume and strength, then I would want to be more watchful of the following price action.
As for the cash index, we are actually trading at the bottom of the major trend line now. There should be some support at 1580 and 1577. Any spike below that would need to be watch carefully.
For daily scalpers, if you are looking to sell, pick a good spot and sell the bounce. But also at the same time, take the cue from the other regional market to see what it is doing. You do not want to start selling when the other markets are recovering right?
For long scalpers, you will have to wait for your spots to enter. A good place is to see if price action find sufficient support at near one of the indicated levels. Then look for a cue from the other regional market. I would take quick profit as I think sellers will be waiting to sell the bounce.
Alright trade safe all!
I will update on FCPO before the market opens at 10.30.
Best Regards,
Tech Trader
The Dow closed down -72 points or 0.54%
The S&P500 closed down -7 points or 0.49%
The Nasdaq closed down -15 points of 0.49%
We had another down day in the US but not by a large amount. Tonight we have one last important piece of economic data which is the Unemployment Claims. This data is closely watched by many traders as it tells the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week, which will in turn indicated if the country's economy is growing or shrinking.
Now is this pullback over? For me, the move down the past two days wasn't really strong and the support areas has held pretty well. Only after we have broken through the major support trend lines will I consider a probably trend change. For now, I am taking this as a up swing pullback.
How will this effect us: FKLI
I think we will see another day of profit taking and sellers piling on to take quick profits.
This is the chart of the March FKLI which will expire tomorrow.
The areas of support would be in the area of 1580 and 1578. If we have any strong spike below those levels with strong volume and strength, then I would want to be more watchful of the following price action.
As for the cash index, we are actually trading at the bottom of the major trend line now. There should be some support at 1580 and 1577. Any spike below that would need to be watch carefully.
For daily scalpers, if you are looking to sell, pick a good spot and sell the bounce. But also at the same time, take the cue from the other regional market to see what it is doing. You do not want to start selling when the other markets are recovering right?
For long scalpers, you will have to wait for your spots to enter. A good place is to see if price action find sufficient support at near one of the indicated levels. Then look for a cue from the other regional market. I would take quick profit as I think sellers will be waiting to sell the bounce.
Alright trade safe all!
I will update on FCPO before the market opens at 10.30.
Best Regards,
Tech Trader
Wednesday, 28 March 2012
Daily Market Commentary
Good evening all,
Alright what a day..
Lets start with the FKLI.
The March FKLI contract opened at 1589.00 down 3 points taking the cue from the US market. Then we traded to a high of 1591.00 before slowly drifting to a low of 1584 and closing at 1585.50 - around the support level we have indicated this morning 1585-83 area in the morning update.
The April contract opened at 1589.50, traded to a high of 1591.5, then to a low of 1584.00 and closing at 1586.00
We have Core Durable Goods Orders tonight in the US at 8.30pm. Then we will see how the market react and close tonight before looking at the probably levels tomorrow.
Kindly take note that starting tomorrow, we will be using the April FKLI contracts for our levels.
On a side note, for the S&P500 futures - ES - we have touch the top of the channel of 1419.75 last night. You can refer to the chart here.
----------------
FCPO
Our June FCPO contract opened lower in line with the drop in the other CME grains product.
We opened lower at 3466 and traded to a low of 3463 before rallying up all the way to 3494 to close at 3473.
Take note that price opened and held near our expected support of 3467 which we have indicated during pre-market in our morning update.
I am still biased on the long side for this contract. However, we will have to see how the CME grains namely Soybean Oil Futures, Soybean Futures, Wheat and Corn Futures do tonight.
Corn Futures has broken down from its smaller triangle pattern but should find some support on the 625 levels.
Wheat is still trading in the range of 676-631 levels.
Only Soybean Oil and Soybean Future's weekly bar is still green.
If Corn demonstrate further selling pressure, it will definitely affect the Soybean, Soybean Oil and wheat Futures. This will further be a drag and hinder the performance of the other contracts including our FCPO.
----------------
Stay tuned for tomorrows report on US market for stocks index and also the CME grains products before the market open and the relevant possible levels of support and resistance.
Have a great evening all!
Best Regards,
Tech Trader
Alright what a day..
Lets start with the FKLI.
The March FKLI contract opened at 1589.00 down 3 points taking the cue from the US market. Then we traded to a high of 1591.00 before slowly drifting to a low of 1584 and closing at 1585.50 - around the support level we have indicated this morning 1585-83 area in the morning update.
The April contract opened at 1589.50, traded to a high of 1591.5, then to a low of 1584.00 and closing at 1586.00
We have Core Durable Goods Orders tonight in the US at 8.30pm. Then we will see how the market react and close tonight before looking at the probably levels tomorrow.
Kindly take note that starting tomorrow, we will be using the April FKLI contracts for our levels.
On a side note, for the S&P500 futures - ES - we have touch the top of the channel of 1419.75 last night. You can refer to the chart here.
----------------
FCPO
Our June FCPO contract opened lower in line with the drop in the other CME grains product.
We opened lower at 3466 and traded to a low of 3463 before rallying up all the way to 3494 to close at 3473.
Take note that price opened and held near our expected support of 3467 which we have indicated during pre-market in our morning update.
I am still biased on the long side for this contract. However, we will have to see how the CME grains namely Soybean Oil Futures, Soybean Futures, Wheat and Corn Futures do tonight.
Corn Futures has broken down from its smaller triangle pattern but should find some support on the 625 levels.
Wheat is still trading in the range of 676-631 levels.
Only Soybean Oil and Soybean Future's weekly bar is still green.
If Corn demonstrate further selling pressure, it will definitely affect the Soybean, Soybean Oil and wheat Futures. This will further be a drag and hinder the performance of the other contracts including our FCPO.
----------------
Stay tuned for tomorrows report on US market for stocks index and also the CME grains products before the market open and the relevant possible levels of support and resistance.
Have a great evening all!
Best Regards,
Tech Trader
Morning Update - 28th March 2011 - Pullback in overseas market
The US market pulled back and we will wait for more price action to plan the trades ahead.
The grains mainly soybean oil, soybean, wheat and corn all had pullbacks as well. Expect the Fcpo to open lower today.
I will update on the levels again shortly.
-------------
Ok Morning all,
Last night last night the US market closed down but not significantly. the Dow closed down 44 points or 0.33%, S&P close down 4 points or 0.28%, and the Nasdaq close down 2 points or 0.07%. This downward push was mainly towards the end of the day.
The CME grains closed as per below:
Soybean Oil Futures 55.08
Soybean Futures 1372
Wheat Futures 641
corn Futures 631
-------------
What are my views today:
Ok lets start with the KLCI first as it will open soon.
We will have to see how the price action play out today. I think we might see a bit of selling too in line with the other regional market. As of now, the Nikkei 225 is down 104.92 or 1.02% already.
Can price recover? Its difficult to say for today. I am still biased to the long side for the week. If you were holding the long since Monday, today's price action should only represent a small pullback for you. But if you are a new long, I think there is no need to panic as there should be some levels of support at around 1583-1585 area. The lower major bottom trend line stands at 1576 which should not be breached with strength if this uptrend is to resume.
If you are scalping as a buyer, maybe you can look for areas of support as indicated by today's price action and buy on support and take your cue from the other regional markets especially the major Asian markets and the US futures. If you are looking to short, you can ride the momentum of the sellers and take quick profits as I think we will drift down slowly with the occasional rebound and not in a straight down fashion.
I will update on the major Asian indexes and US futures when there are any significant changes.
Open updates: Ok we opened at 1589.00 down 3 points from yesterdays closing of 1592.00
Trade safe.
----------------
FCPO
The hourly on the 4 CME grains looks like it might still come down a bit more. Price are still trading within our weekly range with support levels on the weekly chart that I posted over the weekend. There should be support around these areas.
Soybean Oil Futures - Soybean Oil seems to have found some support and is now forming sort of a flag/pennant kind of pattern. This could be a continuation pattern, or it can also be a reversal pattern depending on where it breaks out. What it means is that, price have paused its downward drive for the time being.
Soybean Future - This contract is also forming a flag pattern and we will have to see where price breaks out.
Wheat Futures - Wheat seems to have found some support at 640 for now. But the chart patten looks a bit bearish on the hourly. 637-640 is actually the lower trend line of the smaller triangle pattern within the larger triangle and is the possible lower range of our weekly forecast. This level should hold and if it does break down, we should find some support at around 605-610.
Corn Futures - Corn has been demonstrating sharp selling tendencies for the past two days. The hourly looks like big strong selling, followed by a period of slow drifting up, and more sharp selling again. Price is now pausing and forming small bars. Price may hold and go back up a bit but I think more selling might come in.
How will these affect us - FCPO:
Ok firstly.. I'm glad that Soybean Oil and Soybean Futures are pausing their downward push and may rebound a bit from here. Our FCPO should open a bit lower today. But I am still biased on to the long side for the week.
If you are long since Monday, this should also be a small pullback for you. If you are a new long, I think you should find some support at around 3467 and 3436.
If you are scalping, I think a good strategy would be to look for areas of consolidation and trade the break outs from the area in either direction by using stop orders on both side of the consolidation area. This way, you do not need to care which way it breaks, but still be in the position to take a quick scalp when it does eventually break out.
The Corn and Wheat futures are looking a bit weak for my taste.. but who am I to say what it would do right? We will just trade what the market gives us and follow its price action. But I believe if these two contracts resume its downward march, it will definitely be a drag on the Soybean oil and soybean futures price which will eventually affect our FCPO.
So I will be watching these products closely and will update all of you accordingly.
Trade safe!
Regards,
Tech Trader
Tuesday, 27 March 2012
Daily summary
FKLI
*take note that we closed today as a doji after gaping up in the morning.*
FKLI spot month contract closed at 1592.00 up from yesterday's close of 1584.00.
We first gap up to open 1590.50 in line with the strong performance in the US market. Then we proceed to trade within a tight range with a low of 1588.50 and a high of 1592.5.
For me, this is still a positive development in our long biased view of the market. In fact, the other regional markets registered a positive day too such as the Nikkei 225 - up 2.36%, Hang Seng - up 1.83%, Straits Times Index - up 1.49%, Kospi - up 1.02%. Only Shanghai Index - SSE - closed mostly unchanged - down 0.15%. Take all of this and compare with our gain of only 0.32%.
What to expect tomorrow:
We will have to see how the US market will react to the Consumer Confidence data tonight at 10pm our time.
Please bear in mind that we still have some major economic data being released right into the end of the week.
If the US market remains its positive momentum, I think we will proceed to test the cash index high of 1595-97 and then to test the 1600-06 level.
However, if the US and other regional market such as the Europe region and Major Asian market pull back, expect for us to do the same. But I still believe the support levels will hold if such pull back occurs. If it does not, then we might have a conditional change in trend.
I will update the appropriate levels tomorrow morning before the market opens again.
Also, starting Thursday morning, I will use April's FKLI contract levels as traders are starting to roll over in to the said contract.
-----------------------
FCPO
Another strong day for FCPO contract. We traded to a high of 3497 before pulling back to close at 3481.
I updated in the morning update that our resistance for the day would be around the level of 3492 area.
The uptrend remains intact and we maintain our upside biased view for this contract.
In the second half of the trading session, FCPO broke up and resumed the upward move ahead of the other grains futures. So in a sense, I felt that our FCPO lead the charge up for grains product this afternoon.
What to expect tomorrow:
For Soybean Oil Futures and Soybean Futures, we have covered the gap from the second trading session of last night. I will monitor and see how we do in these market tonight and will update all of you accordingly tomorrow morning to give an indication on how it will affect our FCPO contract.
---------------------
Till then, wishing everyone a great evening and trade safe!
Regards,
Tech Trader
*take note that we closed today as a doji after gaping up in the morning.*
FKLI spot month contract closed at 1592.00 up from yesterday's close of 1584.00.
We first gap up to open 1590.50 in line with the strong performance in the US market. Then we proceed to trade within a tight range with a low of 1588.50 and a high of 1592.5.
For me, this is still a positive development in our long biased view of the market. In fact, the other regional markets registered a positive day too such as the Nikkei 225 - up 2.36%, Hang Seng - up 1.83%, Straits Times Index - up 1.49%, Kospi - up 1.02%. Only Shanghai Index - SSE - closed mostly unchanged - down 0.15%. Take all of this and compare with our gain of only 0.32%.
What to expect tomorrow:
We will have to see how the US market will react to the Consumer Confidence data tonight at 10pm our time.
Please bear in mind that we still have some major economic data being released right into the end of the week.
If the US market remains its positive momentum, I think we will proceed to test the cash index high of 1595-97 and then to test the 1600-06 level.
However, if the US and other regional market such as the Europe region and Major Asian market pull back, expect for us to do the same. But I still believe the support levels will hold if such pull back occurs. If it does not, then we might have a conditional change in trend.
I will update the appropriate levels tomorrow morning before the market opens again.
Also, starting Thursday morning, I will use April's FKLI contract levels as traders are starting to roll over in to the said contract.
-----------------------
FCPO
Another strong day for FCPO contract. We traded to a high of 3497 before pulling back to close at 3481.
I updated in the morning update that our resistance for the day would be around the level of 3492 area.
The uptrend remains intact and we maintain our upside biased view for this contract.
In the second half of the trading session, FCPO broke up and resumed the upward move ahead of the other grains futures. So in a sense, I felt that our FCPO lead the charge up for grains product this afternoon.
What to expect tomorrow:
For Soybean Oil Futures and Soybean Futures, we have covered the gap from the second trading session of last night. I will monitor and see how we do in these market tonight and will update all of you accordingly tomorrow morning to give an indication on how it will affect our FCPO contract.
---------------------
Till then, wishing everyone a great evening and trade safe!
Regards,
Tech Trader
Afternoon update
Latest update: Local FKLI is closed.
US has traded back to range.. Not much movement in anticipation of the Consumer Confidence report tonight.
Careful being in a position as the report may pack a punch.
Will update day summary after Fcpo closes.
-------
Latest update: 4.20pm
Cme grains starting to break up from range also.
Dow/s&p500 futures also break up to new highs..
----
Latest update: 3.48pm
Price have tested our upper target of 3492 for Fcpo.
If you are day trading, this may be a good place to take a portion of your profit.
Trade safe.
-------
FLKI is just trading within a small range after gapping up this morning.
First session:
Open: 1590.5
Low: 1588.5
High: 1592.5
Lunch close: 1591
The Dow/s&p500 futures have yet to break up nor down from their flag pattern on their high range..
-------
FCPO:
Cme grains are still trading at the same range since this morning.. I will post again when there is a break out either side later..
FCPO first session:
Open: 3451
Low: 3450
High: 3467
Lunch close: 3467
Trade safe!
Regards,
Tech Trader
US has traded back to range.. Not much movement in anticipation of the Consumer Confidence report tonight.
Careful being in a position as the report may pack a punch.
Will update day summary after Fcpo closes.
-------
Latest update: 4.20pm
Cme grains starting to break up from range also.
Dow/s&p500 futures also break up to new highs..
----
Latest update: 3.48pm
Price have tested our upper target of 3492 for Fcpo.
If you are day trading, this may be a good place to take a portion of your profit.
Trade safe.
-------
FLKI is just trading within a small range after gapping up this morning.
First session:
Open: 1590.5
Low: 1588.5
High: 1592.5
Lunch close: 1591
The Dow/s&p500 futures have yet to break up nor down from their flag pattern on their high range..
-------
FCPO:
Cme grains are still trading at the same range since this morning.. I will post again when there is a break out either side later..
FCPO first session:
Open: 3451
Low: 3450
High: 3467
Lunch close: 3467
Trade safe!
Regards,
Tech Trader
Morning Updates
Morning Traders,
Indexes
Last night the market in the US performed very well. Market spiked up when Bernanke came on to talk during Pre-market and continued its momentum right through closing.
the Dow closed up 161 points - 1.23%, S&P500 closed up 19 points - 1.39% and Nasdaq closed up 55 points - 1.78%.
This is in line with our current positive view of the market in this week although we will be on the lookout for changes in circumstances during midweek as indicated by price action. We set our weekly high for the S&P500 futures at 1425 and we are quickly reaching there as we are trading at 1415 as of this morning.
How will this effect our local market:
I am still biased on the long side of the market for the week as I mention in the weekly range post yesterday. We have opened up to 1590.50 up 6.5 points.
The support is at 1574 and resistance is at 1596 and 1598.
I will update on this again as and when is needed.
-------------------
CME Grains
Last night I made a post when the grains spiked up and said I would update more on this morning. However, the grains were not able to hold on to the gains and gave back most of that spike up.
Soybean Oil Futures is still trading at about 55.40 while Soybean Futures is still trading at 1380.25 and Wheat Futures are trading at 660.25. Although we gave back most of the gains in the spike in night trading, we are now still trading above the level of yesterday evening (about 6pm local time).
Only Corn Futures gave back its gains in the spike and then some more and is now trading at 639.50. I think the price action of Corn Futures might be a bit of a drag on the other grains commodities prices.. so I will keep a close eye on it. We are now trading at the lower trend line of the smaller triangle and should we break down further, should find support at 623.
How will this affect out Fcpo:
The prices of grains are still holding so that's important. As long as they still hold on to their up trend, I well remain biased on the long side. I suspect that we will see some pullback.. So be careful if you're scalping..
I think we should have some support at the 3431 and 3418 area and some resistance at 3492 above.
I will update as and when there is further update.
All the best and trade safe.
-----------
Regards,
Tech Trader
Indexes
Last night the market in the US performed very well. Market spiked up when Bernanke came on to talk during Pre-market and continued its momentum right through closing.
the Dow closed up 161 points - 1.23%, S&P500 closed up 19 points - 1.39% and Nasdaq closed up 55 points - 1.78%.
This is in line with our current positive view of the market in this week although we will be on the lookout for changes in circumstances during midweek as indicated by price action. We set our weekly high for the S&P500 futures at 1425 and we are quickly reaching there as we are trading at 1415 as of this morning.
How will this effect our local market:
I am still biased on the long side of the market for the week as I mention in the weekly range post yesterday. We have opened up to 1590.50 up 6.5 points.
The support is at 1574 and resistance is at 1596 and 1598.
I will update on this again as and when is needed.
-------------------
CME Grains
Last night I made a post when the grains spiked up and said I would update more on this morning. However, the grains were not able to hold on to the gains and gave back most of that spike up.
Soybean Oil Futures is still trading at about 55.40 while Soybean Futures is still trading at 1380.25 and Wheat Futures are trading at 660.25. Although we gave back most of the gains in the spike in night trading, we are now still trading above the level of yesterday evening (about 6pm local time).
Only Corn Futures gave back its gains in the spike and then some more and is now trading at 639.50. I think the price action of Corn Futures might be a bit of a drag on the other grains commodities prices.. so I will keep a close eye on it. We are now trading at the lower trend line of the smaller triangle and should we break down further, should find support at 623.
How will this affect out Fcpo:
The prices of grains are still holding so that's important. As long as they still hold on to their up trend, I well remain biased on the long side. I suspect that we will see some pullback.. So be careful if you're scalping..
I think we should have some support at the 3431 and 3418 area and some resistance at 3492 above.
I will update as and when there is further update.
All the best and trade safe.
-----------
Regards,
Tech Trader
Monday, 26 March 2012
Upward spike in CME Grains
Woah! We have a huge spike up in the CME grains!
If this holds, we may hit our projected FCPO upper target sooner than later!
Okies trade safe and ciao!
Will update again tomorrow morning.. :)
Regards,
TT
If this holds, we may hit our projected FCPO upper target sooner than later!
Okies trade safe and ciao!
Will update again tomorrow morning.. :)
Regards,
TT
Daily Market Closing - 26th March 2012
Good evening everyone, market is closed and its time for a short commentary on the day's price action.
FCPO performed very well today as per our expectation. We opened at 3440 from last Friday's close of 3426. Then we continue to go up all the way to touch a high of 3479 before pulling back a bit of the gains late in the afternoon to close at 3459. Lets see how the grains product perform tonight in the US hours and how it will affect the price for our FCPO tomorrow. If you haven't read the possible weekly range post for the FCPO, FKLI, Soybean Oil Futures, Soybean Futures, Wheat Futures and Corn Futures, you can scroll down and do so at your own pleasure.
--------------------------
***This is the chart for the spot month of the FKLI Futures contract. *The chart which I post earlier for the possible weekly range is the cash index price - just in case any of you get confused.***
Spot month FKLI traded within a 5.5 point range today as expected. We opened at 1587.50 and traded to a high of 1589, touching a low of 1583.50 and closing at 1584.00. As I have explain in my earlier post this morning, there are important economic indicator and reports coming out this week starting with Bernanke's speech and pending home sales tonight. The reason for this could be due to traders being unsure of the direction of the market and do not want to be caught by a surprised move against them during the announcement of the report and during Bernanke's speech. So trading could be light and choppy in the coming few days.
However, this does not mean that there are no opportunity to trade the Index. Identifying the daily support and resistance point and picking your own spot to enter the trade at these levels. Be careful that you do not be caught buying the high and selling the low as price will tend to trade within a tight range.
-----------
Alright, wishing everyone a great rest this evening. For those of you who are trading the US market, all the best and don't forget your coffee. You can pm me too as I should be awake. :) See you all tomorrow.
Regards,
Tech Trader
Contract specification for KLCI Futures Contract (FKLI)
Last week I posted the FCPO - Crude Palm Oil Futures contract specification when I first started this blog.
Today I will post the contract specification for the second most active futures contracts traded here in Malaysia which is a futures contract based on our local Indices.
While there are some of the more well known indexes and its own futures contract such as the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, the S&P500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Russel, etc, we have our very own index futures known as the FKLI futures.
Now with so many indexes to choose from, you may ask which is better to trade? Right?
Well, this choice really depends on the individual themselves..
For example, as a Malaysian, if you were interested to trade the S&P500 or Dow Jones futures, you would need to stay up throughout the whole night as the market in the US only opens at our local time 9.30pm now. What this means is that, you would be awake almost 24 hours in the day. When your brain is deprived of sleep, it will tend to make mistake and trading in these global market with the countless professional traders with years of experience just sitting on the opposite side of the trade taking your money as you become bait chump can mean that you have a great chance of being on the losing side of the trade.
And you say.. ok lets trade the Hang Seng Index.. well.. why not? Only thing is, how well do you know about the Hong Kong market to trade it well enough to make money consistently?
As a Malaysian with our natural waking hours, there are ample opportunity to make money with just the local indexes.. The cost of trading is at historic low and the execution is as good as any other market with a healthy volume and open interest. Granted, the volume and range sometimes may not be as great as those of other markets in the world, but what if you were given a choice between trading something which you know better and gives you more confidence and one which you only have a some idea?
It only makes sense that trading the local market which we know and understand better will give us more chance to make money. And rest assured, there are plenty of people who many decent money just by trading the FKLI.. and maybe after you have made your bucks and would like to try your hands on the overseas market, you can risk a portion of your portfolio for that purpose..
Alright without further delay, below are the contract specification for the KLCI Futures Contract - FKLI taken from Bursa Malaysia's website.
Regards,
Tech Trader
------------------
Today I will post the contract specification for the second most active futures contracts traded here in Malaysia which is a futures contract based on our local Indices.
While there are some of the more well known indexes and its own futures contract such as the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, the S&P500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Russel, etc, we have our very own index futures known as the FKLI futures.
Now with so many indexes to choose from, you may ask which is better to trade? Right?
Well, this choice really depends on the individual themselves..
For example, as a Malaysian, if you were interested to trade the S&P500 or Dow Jones futures, you would need to stay up throughout the whole night as the market in the US only opens at our local time 9.30pm now. What this means is that, you would be awake almost 24 hours in the day. When your brain is deprived of sleep, it will tend to make mistake and trading in these global market with the countless professional traders with years of experience just sitting on the opposite side of the trade taking your money as you become bait chump can mean that you have a great chance of being on the losing side of the trade.
And you say.. ok lets trade the Hang Seng Index.. well.. why not? Only thing is, how well do you know about the Hong Kong market to trade it well enough to make money consistently?
As a Malaysian with our natural waking hours, there are ample opportunity to make money with just the local indexes.. The cost of trading is at historic low and the execution is as good as any other market with a healthy volume and open interest. Granted, the volume and range sometimes may not be as great as those of other markets in the world, but what if you were given a choice between trading something which you know better and gives you more confidence and one which you only have a some idea?
It only makes sense that trading the local market which we know and understand better will give us more chance to make money. And rest assured, there are plenty of people who many decent money just by trading the FKLI.. and maybe after you have made your bucks and would like to try your hands on the overseas market, you can risk a portion of your portfolio for that purpose..
Alright without further delay, below are the contract specification for the KLCI Futures Contract - FKLI taken from Bursa Malaysia's website.
Regards,
Tech Trader
------------------
| Contract Code | FKLI |
|---|---|
| Underlying Instrument | FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) |
| Contract Size | FBM KLCI multiplied by RM50 |
| Minimum Price Fluctuation | 0.5 index point valued at RM25 |
| Daily Price Limits | 20% per trading session for the respective contract months except the spot month contract. There shall be no price limits for the spot month contract. There will be no price limit for the second month contract for the final five Business Days before expiration. |
| Contract Months | Spot month, the next month and the next two calendar quarterly months. The calendar quarterly months are March, June, September and December. |
| Trading Hours | First trading session: Malaysian 8:45 a.m. to 12:45 p.m. Second trading session: Malaysian 2:30 p.m. to 5:15 p.m. |
| Final Trading Day | The last Business Day of the contract month. |
| Final Settlement | Cash Settlement based on the Final Settlement Value. |
| Final Settlement Value | The Final Settlement Value shall be the average value, rounded to the nearest 0.5 of an index point (values of 0.25 or 0.75 and above being rounded upwards), taken at every 15 seconds or at such intervals as may be determined by the Exchange from time to time from 3.45:30 p.m. to 4.45:15 p.m. plus one value after 5.00pm of the FBM KLCI on the Final Trading Day excepting the 3 highest and 3 lowest values. |
| Speculative Position Limit | Maximum number of net long or net short positions to be held:
10,000 contracts for all months combined |
Soybean oil & soybean futures
Looks like its breaking up a bit now..
Our Fcpo should open higher today..
----------
Updated 10.43am
Fcpo open up to 3440 from Friday closing of 3426.
---------
Updated 3.35pm
soybean oil and soybean futures continue strong into the afternoon after breaking out of the consolidation pattern in the hourly chart..
-------
Trade safe all!
Regards,
Tech Trader
Our Fcpo should open higher today..
----------
Updated 10.43am
Fcpo open up to 3440 from Friday closing of 3426.
---------
Updated 3.35pm
soybean oil and soybean futures continue strong into the afternoon after breaking out of the consolidation pattern in the hourly chart..
-------
Trade safe all!
Regards,
Tech Trader
FKLI * FCPO Weekly Chart
Good morning all,
As promised from yesterday's post, here are the weekly charts for FKLI and FCPO chart.
We'll start off with the index first. currently as of 8.30am, the S&P500 futures is trading up 3 points and the Dow Jones futures is trading up 26.00.
We have a host of economic event coming up and you can look at it at forexfactory's website in the link below.
In the US, we start Monday with Bernanke speaking followed by Pending Home Sales so expect trading to be in a smaller range as traders tend to stay out of the market to see the outcome of these events. On Tuesday, we have the consumer confidence, and Wednesday, we have the core durable goods Orders, Thursday, the unemployment claims report and on Friday, we have a few reports but which may not move the market as much. All these are going to have an effect on the market sentiments as a whole.
As promised from yesterday's post, here are the weekly charts for FKLI and FCPO chart.
We'll start off with the index first. currently as of 8.30am, the S&P500 futures is trading up 3 points and the Dow Jones futures is trading up 26.00.
We have a host of economic event coming up and you can look at it at forexfactory's website in the link below.
In the US, we start Monday with Bernanke speaking followed by Pending Home Sales so expect trading to be in a smaller range as traders tend to stay out of the market to see the outcome of these events. On Tuesday, we have the consumer confidence, and Wednesday, we have the core durable goods Orders, Thursday, the unemployment claims report and on Friday, we have a few reports but which may not move the market as much. All these are going to have an effect on the market sentiments as a whole.
-------------------------------
I am still biased to the upside for our local market. The weekly possible range could test the high of 1595 (July 2010) and if we break that, test the 1600-1606 level. I think the lower trend line of the wedge should hold with support around the area of 1570-1575. But these are just the possible range. Remember that we have a host of important economic indicator announcement this week in the US and traders will want to wait for the result of these reports for more indication of the market direction after the 'smart money - big players' has entered the market. Expect smaller daily range unless there is significant news on the wires.
--------------------------
As for our FCPO, I am also biased to the long side still. The minor trend line from the last 3 weeks is still holding and the other grains product mainly the soybean oil futures, soybean futures, wheat futures and corn futures seems to be demonstrating some upward biased sentiment. We are coming into the 3460 resistance level. If we can trade over that with conviction, we may test the 3500-3540 range. As for support, I expect the minor trend line to hold until it is broken conclusively. The area around 3300-3344 should hold.
------------------------
I am still relatively quite new to the FKLI and FCPO market hence it will have a bit of time to adjust and get used to its price action. However, I will try my best to implement what I have learned trading other markets into these local contracts. Therefore, I expect to make many errors before I can consistently get this better. Please bear with me in this transition period and do share your thought with me.
Thanks you very much!
Regards,
Tech Trader
Sunday, 25 March 2012
Up Coming Week 26-30th
I have a fellow trader friend from Houston, Texas whom I met online for a period of time and we talked a lot about trading everyday.. Sometimes we things can get a bit heated up during discussion but it is all good in the end..
One of the things that I learned from him is to identify the levels on the charts especially the weekly possible range during our free and quiet time like the weekend..
So in following the practice, I will post some weekly charts of the grains and index and identify some of the probably range by using trend lines and patterns.. if you see anything that needs changing, you are more than welcome to leave a comment for me.. Thanks!
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Ok Lets start of with the S&P500 futures emini chart - Ticker ES. While some people still prefer to use the Dow Jones Index, a lot of people are now switching to the S&P500 index as a better representation of the market as a whole. The Dow Jones Index only represent 30 large industrial corporation while the S&P500 represents 500 corporations which is why most believe the latter to be a better indication of the market sentiment as it aims to represent the whole stock market.
But if you really look at the charts, whether it is the S&P500, Dow Jones Index, Nasdaq, or even the Russel, they all look pretty much the same with slight differences in the daily closing. So if you fancy, you can draw up the support and resistance in your own platform anytime you like.
As a prudent trader, I have all of these indexes up on my charts the whole time as sometimes one of the indices could move ahead first giving some hints to the direction of the market. It is up to you as a trader to decipher the information before you and identify the possible levels of support and resistance before placing a trade.
One of the things that I learned from him is to identify the levels on the charts especially the weekly possible range during our free and quiet time like the weekend..
So in following the practice, I will post some weekly charts of the grains and index and identify some of the probably range by using trend lines and patterns.. if you see anything that needs changing, you are more than welcome to leave a comment for me.. Thanks!
---------------------
Ok Lets start of with the S&P500 futures emini chart - Ticker ES. While some people still prefer to use the Dow Jones Index, a lot of people are now switching to the S&P500 index as a better representation of the market as a whole. The Dow Jones Index only represent 30 large industrial corporation while the S&P500 represents 500 corporations which is why most believe the latter to be a better indication of the market sentiment as it aims to represent the whole stock market.
But if you really look at the charts, whether it is the S&P500, Dow Jones Index, Nasdaq, or even the Russel, they all look pretty much the same with slight differences in the daily closing. So if you fancy, you can draw up the support and resistance in your own platform anytime you like.
As a prudent trader, I have all of these indexes up on my charts the whole time as sometimes one of the indices could move ahead first giving some hints to the direction of the market. It is up to you as a trader to decipher the information before you and identify the possible levels of support and resistance before placing a trade.
The pink lines are the trend lines drawn across various points which I think is important. Since the beginning of the year, we have been in an up trend and have form sort of a channel going up. The possible range which I identify would be from 1375 to 1425. The area was a point of consolidation back in April-June 2008 and would most likely be a point of resistance for the market.
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Ok, the next chart we have the Soybean Oil Futures. The uptrend channel is still intact but we seem to be coming into an area of resistance as highlighted by the dark rectangle shadow in the early part of 2010. Possible weekly range from 54 to 57. The grains traded on the CME have quite a high co-relations to our local crude palm oil futures during trading hours.
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Next we look at the chart of the Soybean Futures. This contract tend to move in tandem with the Soybean Oil Futures, hence, price action will also likely affect the price of our FCPO. Possible range for the week is 1339 to 1420. Take note of the two yellow channel drawn across the price action showing consolidation during the first half of 2010. The uptrend for the Soybean futures should still be intact but we are quickly coming into the upper trend line acting as resistance. I think price would be choppy within the yellow channel in the coming days until we have a strong breakout in either direction in the coming days.
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The Wheat Futures is actually now within a triangle formation and within it, another smaller triangle where we are trading now. The possible weekly range for this contract between 637 to 674 which is within the smaller triangle pattern. A break out from this patten would then meet further levels of resistance and support as represented by the main triangle trend lines.
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And lastly, we will look at the Corn Futures. The possible weekly range for this contract is 640 and 700. We actually had a breakout from the 665 levels last week but pulled back again into the consolidation area as represented by the latest red bar. This could be construed as a head fake, tempting traders into long position and then pulling back again hitting stop losses and accelerating the downward push. But I think the upward pressure is still intact. The other grains futures are also demonstrating good upward momentum so my bias is still to the long side. If prices were to break down, it should find some area of support at around 623 where the lower major trend line is.
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Ok that's about if from the other grains and index that could affect our local FCPO and FKLI futures. I will post an update on our local chart tomorrow morning with the relevant levels.
Wishing everyone a great and relaxing weekend!
Regards,
Tech Trader
Friday, 23 March 2012
New Home Sales - economic report 23 March 2012
We have a few economic report/event tonight namely the:
- New Home Sales at 10PM
- Fed Chairman Bernanke speaking
- FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
What traders should watch out for if you're trading the US index futures/stocks:
Expect price action to be slightly choppy and be lighter than usual in view of a few economic reports within the same day. Careful being in a position, whether long or short as the announcement may pack a punch in either direction very quickly.
Possible Trades:
Place stop orders outside consolidation area and prepare to take quick profits as price sometime tends to pullback quickly as well.
Regards,
Tech Trader
Below is the description of the New Home Sales report as taken from ForexFactory website.
The Previous report was at 321,000 and Forecast at 326,000 new home sales.
| Measures | Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month; |
| Usual Effect | Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; |
| Frequency | Released monthly, about 25 days after the month |
| Next Release | Apr 24, 2012 |
| FF Notes | While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12); |
| Why Traders Care | It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a new home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, furniture and appliances are purchased for the home, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction; |
Cme Grains rebound from am sessions
Dear Readers,
Below are the charts showing the bounce up today for the grains product which can account for the strong open and energy in our FCPO Futures Contracts.
Regards,
Tech Trader
Contract specification of CRUDE PALM OIL FUTURES (FCPO)
Dear Readers,
Alright, I think it is only appropriate that we begin by introducing the contract specification of the contracts that we will be focusing on for the benefit of new traders.
One of the most active futures contracts traded on the Bursa Malaysia Derivative Berhad is the Crude Palm Oil Futures.
The crude palm oil is extracted from the oil palm which is a tree grown extensively in South-East Asia. According to wikipedia, the oil palm produces 3 types of edible oils namely palm oil, coconut oil and palm kernel oil. This tree originated from West Africa and the tree was introduced to Malaysia in 1870 and was grown on a commercial basis from 1917.
The oil palm yields more oil than any other oil-bearing plant. A hectare of oil palm plantation yields oil production of about 5 times greater than that of groundnut and nine times greater than that of soybean, which makes palm oil a major part of the world market for all fats and oils.
The oil are being used for purposes such as cooking oil and shortening, in the manufacture of soap, margarine, vegetable ghee and a wide range of other products.
Daily volume traded for the 3rd month (active month) of the FCPO futures contract average about 10,000 to 15,000 and with a total open interest of between 30,000 to 45,000.
Total open interest can vary and the current open interest for all the months combined average at about 125,000.
I will write more about how we can trade the FCPO with examples of how we can use the FCPO for outright position trading, hedging and also spread trading in the future.
Till then, adios! :)
Sincerely,
Tech Trader
Here are the contract specification taken from Bursa Malaysia's website:
Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO)
| Contract Code | FCPO |
|---|---|
| Underlying Instrument | Crude Palm Oil |
| Contract Size | 25 metric tons |
| Minimum Price Fluctuation | RM1 per metric ton |
| Daily Price Limits |
With the exception of trades in the spot month,
trades for future delivery of Crude Palm Oil in any month shall not be made, during any one
Business Day, at prices varying more than 10% above or below the settlement prices of the preceding
Business Day (“the 10% Limit”) except as provided below.
When at least 3 non-spot month contracts are
trading at the 10% Limit, the Exchange shall announce a 10-minute cooling off period (“the Cooling
Off Period”) for all contract months (except the spot month) during which trading shall only take
place within the 10% Limit. Following the Cooling Off Period, all contract months shall be
specified as interrupted for a period of 5 minutes, after which the prices traded for all contract
months (except the spot month) shall not vary more than 15% above or below the settlement prices of
the preceding Business Day (“the 15% Limit”).
If the 10% Limit is triggered less than 30
minutes before the end of the first trading session, the following shall apply:-
|
| Contract Months |
Spot month and the next 5 succeeding months, and thereafter, alternate months
up to 24 months ahead
|
| Trading Hours |
First trading session:
Malaysian time: 10:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m.
Second trading session:
Malaysian time: 3:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m.
|
Speculative Position Limits
|
Maximum number of net long or net short
positions to be held:
500 contracts for the spot month
5,000 contracts for any single delivery month
except for the spot month
8,000 contracts for all contract months
combined
|
| Final Trading Day and Maturity Date |
Contract expires at noon on the 15th day of the
delivery month, or if the 15th is a non-market day, the preceding Business Day.
|
| Tender Period |
1st Business Day to the 20th Business Day of
the delivery month, or if the 20th is a non-market day, the preceding Business Day.
|
| Contract Grade and Delivery Points |
Crude Palm Oil of good merchantable quality, in
bulk, unbleached, in Port Tank Installations approved by the Exchange located at the option of the
seller at Port Kelang, Penang/Butterworth and Pasir Gudang (Johor).
Free Fatty Acids (FFA) of palm oil delivered into Port Tank Installations
shall not exceed 4% and from Port Tank Installations shall not exceed 5%.
Moisture and impurities shall not exceed 0.25%.
Deterioration of Bleachability Index (DOBI)
value of palm oil delivered into Port Tank Installations shall be at a minimum of 2.5 and of palm
oil delivered from Port Tank Installations shall be at a minimum of 2.31.
|
| Deliverable Unit |
25 metric tons, plus or minus not more than 2%.
Settlement of weight differences shall be based
on the simple average of the daily Settlement Prices of the delivery month from:
|
Welcome to Malaysian Derivatives
Dear Readers,
I humbly welcome all of you to this newly set up blog. After designing the template, I was wondering what should be the first post here.. and I thought that what better than to introduce myself and the things we endeavor to do in this virtual space where we shall get together more in the future.. :)
Due to privacy reasons, I plan to keep my name private and confidential.. perhaps after getting to know more of you personally, I will divulge my private information (if you still care to know hehe) to you through private chat or skype or any other medias lah.. How does that sound? Perfect!
Ok.. then we come to my experience..
Truth be told, I'm relatively quite new to the market if I'm being compared against the endless war veterans out there who has encountered countless battles conducted through the exchange.. people with decades of experience in the game of trading.. bringing different methodology and trading styles from the floor traders to the dealers to the professional traders to the everyday Joe like you and me.. both experienced and young in blood.
I started this trading journey by going through a training on trading options in the overseas market - the US - before moving on to trading futures after that. It was here that I learned about what the various indicators are, what to look for in the market, the trading check list, the basics of interpreting the charts, etc.. and since then, after a few years of blood, sweat, tears, crushed confidence and self-esteem, and all the other emotions that all of us traders have to go through at any one stage in our trading career, I have arrived at a more tranquil emotional state regarding the market and a deeper understanding of what to look for in the market.
Now I'm not saying I'm the perfect professional trader raking in thousands upon thousands daily with a net asset of a few millions in the bank.. far from it.. I'm just the same as everyone on this sometimes tough and seeming impossible journey to be a better trader..
In this blog, I endeavor to share what I have learned over the years, putting in the appropriate references, anecdotes, videos, daily charts and updates on the market, my interpretation of the price action for the day, and all things trading. I hope that through there, we will all eventually be closer as a trading community and stay in touch by other means too.
And to this end, I bid a warm and friendly welcome to you, my dear trader friend.
Sincerely,
Tech Trader (TT)
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