How are you all doing? I'm doing alright here and I hope you're doing fine too where ever you are.
Alright.. lets proceed to see what is in store for us next week.
If you have not read our last week's update, you can click here.
S&P500 Futures - /es
We traded to these following levels last week:
Opened: 1325.50
High: 1359.50
Low: 1302.50
Closed: 1358.25
Our levels for last week was:
Possible Weekly Upper Range: 1354 and 1375 should we break up more.
Possible Weekly Lower Range: 1270
Alright.. Our possible weekly high was 1354 and we were actually quite close. The high made for the week was 1359.50 which was just a few points away so not too bad.
Last week, we mention that the if the sellers want to push this market down, they need to break below the 1313-1300 level convincingly. These support level held nicely as price only made a low of 1302.50 for the week and never had the strength to break below that.
We also said that volatility was trading very low and there was not much fear in the market so an upside probability outweigh the downside for the week so we are right on that count too.
So we closed the week as nice healthy green bar with a moderate tail. Volatility closed at 17 last Friday. What is in store for next week?
Well, I think it is too easy to say that things are nice and rosy and good again after the strong rally. The resulting rally following the EU summit is a good thing and maybe can be considered a nice change in the fundamental aspect of the world economy. Whether we can keep pushing upside remains to be seen.
For me, I prefer to take a sideways to an slightly upside biased market posture for next week. Yes I would look if price can continue upwards. But I will also be careful if it doesn't. If you look at the weekly chart, we are just having overlapping bars so we are really just stuck inside of a sideways market. There is also a possibility we might trade in a small range with the 4th July Banking holiday so be on the look out for that too.
I am still favoring a two sided market market next week. Nothing too bullish for me yet at this moment unless we see more confirmation next week. With the EU summit rally, things could change so you never know until more price plays out so as a prudent trader, we will always keep an eye out and follow where the trend goes even though we might have a bias for the market already.
Here are the possible range for next week:
Possible Weekly Upper Range: 1400
Possible Weekly Lower Range: 1309
Look at our morning updates for more details.
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Soybean Oil Futures
We traded to these following levels last week:
Opened: 51.30
High: 53.26
Low: 51.21
Closed: 53.18
Our levels for last week was:
Possible upper weekly range is: 52 and 52.70 should we break further.
Possible lower weekly range is: 48.30 and 47 should we break further.
Alright.. Soybean Oil performed better than our expectation. Our upside target was 52.70 highest but we went and exceeded that and made a high of 53.26.
This is good because if we continue to go make higher levels, then perhaps out FCPO will follow suit soon too.
We closed as a nice green bar and I am hoping to see a continuation of these strength. We have broke the upper trend line and have closed back into the triangle pattern.
Alright.. The immediate resistance ahead is the 54 level. I want to see if price can break it and remain above it. If yes, then I would assume that the upside strength is still there. I am putting a higher upside target for next week. Lets see if we can reach there by the end of the week.
We should have some support at the 52 and 51 level if we break down so things are not looking too bad in this commodity.
Here are the levels for next week:
Possible upper weekly range is: 54 first, then to test the 54.86 level, then 55.55 if there is continuation.
Possible lower weekly range is: 52 and 51.10 should we break further.
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Soybean Futures
We traded to these following levels last week:
Opened: 1399
High: 1439.75
Low: 1392.75
Closed: 1428.75
Our levels for last week was:
The possible upper weekly range is: 1450
The possible lower weekly range is: 1300
Hola.. guessed what happened here? That's right! Nothing.. We are still stick in the sideways market that I have been talking about which is the 1450 and 1300 range. I am looking for price to keep trading within this ranges until further break out occurs. Perhaps a stronger Soybean Oil Futures can pull this contract up? We will see. Until price really breaks above the 1450, then I will assume we will be trading in between the range of 1450 and 1300. If we break above the 1450, the next resistance would be the 1465 and the 1480 level.
Here are the levels for next week:
The possible upper weekly range is: 1450
The possible lower weekly range is: 1350
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Wheat Futures
We traded to these following levels last week:
Opened: 696.25
High: 763.50
Low: 696.25
Closed: 758.50
Our levels for last week was:
The possible upper weekly range is: 725
The possible lower weekly range is: 650
Alright.. what a strong performance by Wheat. We said that last week if we can break the 690 level, then we might have a chance for an upside break out. Price opened above the 690 level and traded upwards from there and had a strong rally. We broke above our weekly range to test and break above our second resistance at 753 and actually made a high of 763.50 and closed at 758.50.
So we are now trading firmly above the triangle pattern. This time, the breakout seems genuine and strong so we will take it as what is it. I am looking to see if price can go up to test higher resistance above. When price breaks out of a trading range firmly like this, a continuation is quite likely. But we would also be wise to keep an eye out in case this commodity does the opposite and we would not be caught like a deer in headlights. I think if a pull back occurs, the 725 level should hold.
Here are the levels for next week:
Here are the levels for next week:
The possible upper weekly range is: 834
The possible lower weekly range is: 725
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Corn Futures
We traded to these following levels last week:
Opened: 570.25
High: 656.75
Low: 570.25
Closed: 634
Our levels for last week was:
Possible upper weekly range: 630
Possible lower weekly range: 542
Alright.. This contract slightly better than we expected. Price exceeded out high range but closed near to our level at 634.
However, from the weekly charts, this contract remains in a sideways chop so there is not much to read into it.
I think there will be quite strong resistance at 665 ahead. I still favor a sideways trading for this contract so we can only follow its intraday movements.
Here are the levels for next week:
Possible upper weekly range: 665-675
Possible lower weekly range: 591
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Alright see you all in the morning updates tomorrow! Have a good evening! Ciao!
Best Wishes,
Tech Trader
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