:)

Selamat Hari Raya

Tech Trader wishes everyone a Selamat Hari Raya to all my Muslim readers our there.

Have a great holiday and have more happy memories with your loved ones! Cheers!

Sincerely,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 14th Aug 2012

Morning Traders,

US market closed down slightly and mixed as Nasdaq was slightly positive. I remember at one point during the night the market was down by quite significantly.

There will be a host of numbers coming out tonight so be on the look out for that. On the chart, it seems like price has encountered a significant resistance level here and if there is a negative catalyst, a possible downside break could happen.

----

Cash market made a new high again yesterday. Futures turn form discount to premium.

I want to look and see if cash market wants to continue this upward movement. If yes, then shorts need to be careful. Do not discount the possibility of a Malaysia boleh rally again.

But with Hari Raya coming up and public holiday on Monday and Tuesday, I think there will be traders that would be unwilling to hold over such a long holiday so some traders might lighten up their position.

Here are your levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1651, 53, 55, 58
Lower Support: 1649, 47, 44, 42, 40

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1650, 52, 54
Lower Support: 1646, 43, 40, 36

Trade safe all.

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

10th Aug 2012 - Morning Updates

Morning Traders,

Alright US closed mixed yesterday somewhat flat-ish. There will be Federal budget balance tonight. the resistance 1408 has yet to be tested on the S&P so we will see what happens tonight. Last two Fridays we rallied right into the end of the week. Would we do the same again this week? Or the opposite? I think it is good to be vigilant and watch price closely.

-------

On the local front, the cash market rallied right into the close and close at 42.52. It actually broke the bear trendline on the cash market chart. However, the futures chart did not confirm and is still trading below its bear trendline.

Being a Friday, I think it is better to be more careful and less adventurous. Either day trade or just sit on the sidelines would be the lower risk options.

Here are your levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1642, 44, 47, 51, 53, 55
Lower Support: 1639, 36, 32, 30, 27

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1642, 44, 46, 48
Lower Support: 1640, 38, 35, 33, 30

Trade safe all!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 9th Aug 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright US market closed flat last night. There will be trade balance and unemployment claims tonight. So far this has been an up-week since the upside break from the consolidation range. Next resistance would be the 1408 on the S&P.

----

Alright.. it has been a quiet few days on our local front. On the daily chart, seems like it has made a lower low. I will only consider to swing a short if we manage to close below the 20ema. Otherwise, I think I would stick to day trading or just sit on the sidelines. Major support would be at 30.

Here are your trading levels:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1638, 40, 44, 48, 51
Lower Support: 1635, 32, 30, 26, 24 22

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1638, 40, 42, 45
Lower Support: 1635, 32, 30, 27, 25, 22

Trade safe all!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

6th Aug 2012 - Morning Updates

Morning Traders,

Last Friday I was on leave so there was no updates from me.

Alright. Dow closed up heavy last Friday. Nikkei is up 1.8% now. Dow is now up only 8 points now. Price is trading at a major bear trend line here so that should provide some measure of resistance.

Old boy Bernanko will be speaking tonight and tomorrow night and there will be a host of numbers this week also.

------

Alright.. What to expect today? Well too most of overnight longs have been closed. Would have been nice to close them at this gap up morning.

But anyhow, what can we expect reasonably? We should have strong support at the 30 level for both the cash and the futures.

I won't rush in to re-establish a new long position and would just sit and see how price unfolds first. If price pulls back lower and support holds, then I might go long. Otherwise, I might just see and just day trade only.

Here are the trading levels for today.

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1638, 41, 43, 46, 50
Lower Support: 1635, 30, 26, 24

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1636, 38, 40, 42, 45
Lower Support: 1632, 30, 25, 23

Trade safe all.

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 2nd Aug 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright. US market closed down slightly. Nikkei is up this morning. We also have ECB meeting tonight so trade cautiously.

-----

As for the home front, I am still keeping my long positino from 27 as long as price can still hold up here. If I see a sharp pull back, then I might close the position and secure the profits.

There seems to be sellers around this morning but the cash market seems to be holding nicely still.

Here are your levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1635, 38, 41, 43, 45
Lower Support: 1633.50, 29, 27, 24, 22

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1635, 38, 40, 43
Lower Support: 1632, 29, 26, 24, 22

So trade safe.

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 1st Aug 2012

Morning Traders,

US market closed down modestly. Dow lost 64 points while S&P drop almost 6 points. Looking at the chart, it looks a bit scary to be honest. The daily looks just like a wave for the past couple of weeks. Up, then down, then up then down, then now up, and I'm wondering if the next is down? I will be watchful for that.

There will be FOMC tonight so all eyes will be on that and some manufacturing data and ADP employment data.

--------

As for our local market, I am still long AUG from 27 and we will see how it goes. If the trend remains strong, I will look to remain long all the way.

But should the selling come in too strong, then I might just secure the profits and reposition after that.

Here are your levels for today.

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1634.5, 39, 41, 43, 45
Lower Support: 1630, 26, 22, 19, 15

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1631, 33, 35, 38, 40
Lower Support: 1628, 26, 23, 20, 17, 15

Alright trade safe everyone!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 31 July 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright US market closed down a little and was mostly flat-ish with lower volume. All eyes will be directed to the FOMC and the ECB later this week and also with a host of other numbers.

We seem to have broken out of the consolidation area but we have to see if there are any follow through there.

--------

Alright we had a late rally in the cash market yesterday to close at 32.35. I want to see if the buying in the cash market is still there or not. I have established a few longer terms longs in August contract and will monitor it closely.

Price have not been able to break below 15 yet so that is a good sign. Lets see if this is just a pull back from the highs and whether we can go back to test the highs again.

Here are your levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1630, 33, 36, 38, 40
Lower Support: 1626, 22, 20, 18, 15

Cash Index: 1633, 36, 38, 40
Lower Support: 1626, 23, 20, 18

Ok trade safe all.

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 26th July 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright. US market was up slightly. Dow was up 59 while S&P was unchanged. Looks like the matching is lower today. Support for S&P remains at 1318 and we have not break it yet. We have a host of numbers coming our tonight so be on the watch for that too.

---

Ok sorry for the late updates. We had a lot of calls this morning.

Market open slightly lower at 37.50 from last close of 39. Then we just shot up to the sky and touched 43.

From the highs, sellers came in full force and sold down to 36 from the highs.

I am looking to short if it breaks lower. I want to see price trade in a small range now first. After the small range is formed, I will trade the break out from there.

Here are the levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1640, 43, 46, 49
Lower Support: 1636, 32, 29, 26

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1639, 42, 45, 47
Lower Support: 1632, 29, 25

Trade safe all!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 25th July 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright another down day in the US. Dow closed down -104 and S&P closed down 12. We have housing data tonight so be on the look out for that. On the weekly chart, we are trading near the lower end of the consolidation pattern so lets see if we can break through that and if not, whether a bounce is in order.

-----

Alright back home. The support at 30 broke yesterday. This basically signifies that the up trend has been broken.

But we might not just fall through the floor just like that. What it means that the bull trend line will now become less steeper and less steeper until one day, the reversal come and the bull trend line is being replaced with a bear trend line.

The 20ema is at 24 so that would provide some measure of support. I would like to see how it opens and if price goes up, I want to see if resistance hold. If yes, then I would like to short if the momentum is still there.

For now, I think I will just sit on the sidelines and just watch price develops more and stick to day trading.

Here are your levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1630, 33, 36, 38
Lower Support: 1627, 24, 22, 19, 15

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1632, 35, 37, 40
Lower Support: 1629, 26, 24, 22, 20

Trade safe all!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 24th July 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright. Us market closed down. Dow ooened down -200 plus but recovered to close at only down -101 and S&P closed down -12 only.

Bernanko will be coming on again tonight.

-----

Alright what's in store for us today?

Major support at 32-30. If these levels hold, then I think I will scalp upwards from here.

We only broke down in the afternoon session yesterday after triggering some stops. In the morning, we held like a rock despite the regional looking like crap.

Until we break a major trend line and the 20ema, I will assume that the trend is still upwards.

Here are your levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1636, 40, 42, 46
Lower Support: 1632, 30, 27, 24, 22

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1637, 40, 42, 45
Lower Support: 1632, 29, 27, 25, 20

Trade safe all!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 23rd July 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright.. US market closed down on Friday, Dow futures are down about -40 over as of this writing. We have a few major numbers coming our namely the housing data and the advance gdp on Friday.

----

What's in store for us back home?

Alright we opened at 41, then traded up to 43 right after that.

We have a few major support at 42, 36 and 30.

I wan't to see what prices do when it touches those support levels. If support holds, then I might go long there.

For now, I'm taking a look and see approach for now.

Here are your trading levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1647, 49, 51, 53
Lower Support: 1642, 39, 36, 33, 30

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1645, 47, 50, 52
Lower Support: 1640, 37, 35, 32

Trade safe all!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 20th July 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright.. Market about to open in a bit.

US market closed slightly up. Dow up +34 and S&P + 3.

No major numbers coming out from the US tonight but some from Europe.

-----

So.. what do you guys think?

I remember at closing last night I saw that many of the counters in the index was either red or some were unchanged. Only a few counters were up. This is quite significant for me because the regional was up by quite a lot and we didn't continue the up move.

But volume was crappy.

I think I will sit on the sidelines or just day trade if the opportunity arise. Major support for futures at 40.

Here are your levels:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1648, 51, 53, 55, 58
Lower Support: 1646, 43, 40, 38, 36

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1647, 49, 51, 53, 55
Lower Support: 1642, 40, 37, 35, 32

Trade safe!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 19th July 2012

Morning Traders,

I think I won't be in time for the open today.. Raining lah.. caused the roads to be very jam.. sorry..

Alright.. US market closed up nicely, S&P has broken the bear trend line at 68, there will be resistance at 74 so we will see what price do when it reaches there.

We have a few major numbers coming out today mainly unemployment claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Existing Home Sales.

Sooooooo... What's up ahead? That remains the million dollar question.. :)

-----

Ok back home.. What's in store? The market has opened already.. Cash is at all time high again, futures opened at 50, made a high of 51, and pulled back to a low of 46 and it is now trading at 46.50-47.

Personally, I think if these support holds, I think the move is upside. A strong market will remain strong until a conditional change occurs. So watch your levels and trade carefully.

Here are the levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1648, 50, 53, 55, 58
Lower Support: 1643, 40, 38, 36

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1647, 49, 51, 53, 55
Lower Support: 1642, 40, 37, 33

Trade safe all!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 18th July 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright.. tonight we have Bernanko testifying for the second day. Also we have building permits and also a few major numbers coming out in the UK and a few other major countries.

The US market closed up moderately with the Dow up +78 and the S&P +10.

On the charts, I want to see if S&P futures can break the 68 level as the bear trend line is there. We will wait for more price action to clarify this.

----

Alright back home. Yesterday at a glimpse, I actually saw that only about 9-10 counter was actually up out of all the 30 index linked counters.

I think I will be monitoring the counters again to look for signs of weakness developing there. The music has to stop somewhere right? I'm not saying it is now, but I always want to be on the look our for signs so that I do not be caught unprepared.

We have some strong support should price break namely at 32 for futures.

There really isn't much indication other than our cash market is very strong. But looking at yesterday how the majority of the counters are not following the action, I think I will start to look for cracks in the wall so to speak.

I will remain in day trading mode should I see any opportunity.

Here are your levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1646, 48, 50, 53
Lower Support: 39-40, 36, 32, 30

Cash Index

Upper resistance: 1640, 43, 47, 49
Lower Support: 37, 33, 29, 25

Trade safe all!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 17th July 2012

Morning Traders,

Just this morning I thought about how this month had gone past in the blink of an eye and its the middle of the month already.

I have been sleeping earlier and that extra rest felt good for me.

Alright lets proceed with the updates for today.

US market closed down moderately last night. Dow closed down -50 while S&P was almost unchanged at -3.

There is a correction. Bernanko will be speaking tonight and not tomorrow night so take note of that.

-----

As for our local market, I just can't do anything but admire the strength in our cash market. I felt that our futures side lost a bit of its upside momentum yesterday as you can see price had difficulty to push upside. But our cash market remains strong and pushed to new high.

If cash market remains so strong, there is nothing that futures can do other than follow it upside too.

I think we need to look at cash market again today and see if the strength and buying is still there and let that be our lead. But take note that yesterday, we traded at par for most of the day and went discount towards the end of the day. But this doesn't mean that we can't go back to premium mode again in the coming days.

These relationship between prices can change any time if the big buyers start coming back in the futures so you need to be on the look out for that.

I will stick to day trading and let cash be my lead.

Here are the levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1635, 38, 41, 43
Lower Support: 1630, 28, 26, 22

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1636, 38, 40, 42
Lower Support: 1632, 29, 25

Trade safe all.

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 16th July 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright.. we have a host of numbers coming out this week with old boy Bernanko testifying on Wednesday.

Last Friday, market closed up significantly with Dow closing up +204 and with S&P closing +22. Effectively, we are still in a sideways market and I think we will remain so until any further conclusive break outs.

I read somewhere that the numbers coming out will be weaker in the summer months so be on the look out for that too.

---------

Alright.. with the US closing up so much, the overnight shorts are going to experience some pain this morning at open I guess.

But how are we going to trade today? Are we going to resume the strong surge again? This remains to be seen. That is definitely a possibility.

However, you need to be careful also because the sellers may come back at some point during the day.

I think I will be on the look out for both side of the market and not get too complacent here and stick to day trading only.

Here are your levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1629, 32, 36, 38, 41
Lower Support: 1623, 19, 16, 12

Cash Index:


Upper Resistance: 1629, 32, 35, 38
Lower Support: 1621, 17, 14, 11

Trade safe all!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 13th July 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright.. US market closed mildly down. Nasdaq was down heavier percentage wise. We have China's GDP at 10am. Then we will have a host of economic numbers in the US tonight. To be honest, looking at the closing for the Dow and the S&P, it was looking much more ugly at one point compared to the actual closing.

------

Alright.. lets head back on home..

Finally we see a pull back.. A breath of relief for the bears really..

What do you all think? There will be a major support at around the 15 level.

Being a Friday, I think I will be more careful and maybe just sit on the sidelines. Unless I see a good set up like price testing near the 15 level and can't break support, I may go long for a scalp.

Here are your levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1626, 29, 32, 35, 38
Lower Support: 1622, 20, 17, 15, 12, 08

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1629, 32, 35
Lower Support: 1625, 23, 20, 18, 15

Trade safe all!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 12th July 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright I will keep this brief.

Us market closed down moderately. Tonight we have unemployment claims. S&P is still trading at 1336 support.

----------

Alright.. unbelievable as it may seem, the party goes on!

We made a new high yesterday again. There is just no fighting this market. If I'm not mistaken, the volume on the cash market also uncreased right?

I think we should continue to have the upside mentality until we have a conditional change.

That means I will keep buying the dips until it doesn't work any more, and then I will reverse.

As for today, I will see if support holds near 30 or not. If yes, then I will go long. I will have my stops in place if it decides to reverse today. Trade safe.

Here are your levels.

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1636, 38, 41, 43
Lower support: 1630, 26, 22, 20

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1632, 35, 38
Lower Support: 1628, 25, 20

Trade safe all!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 11th July 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright.. sorry for the late updates this morning.

Let go and do a brief one.

The Dow was higher before cash open and started to lose it gains to close down -83. For the S&P futures, we are nto trading right at the 22ema in the weekly which is the 1333-1336 levels which should provide some measure of support. The drop in the last few days was gradual, but it was a down few days nonetheless. We have the Trade balance numbers and the FOMC minutes tonight so be aware.

------

Alright.. we reached an all time high again yesterday like we expected. But what is in store for today? That's the same question that I have in my mind now.

With the US market showing general weakness, it is really quite a feat for us to keep showing a brave front and shooting to new highs continuously. How much of this are from real demand you would need to ask eventually. But if we keep doing this and shoot to new highs while the whole world are still sideways, the pull back could be a sharp one.

As of now, we have just been buying the dips and it has been working nicely. And it will keep working until it does work. And when it doesn't work any more, we will then reverse our outlook on the market.

As for today, I have no position on for now. With the FOMC on tonight, I might just want to sit on the sidelines. If we manage to spike up sharply, but could not sustain the move, then I will fade and do a day trade and short it. Similar on the short side, if we push down sharply, and support holds, then I would consider to go long on a day trade. I kinda feel that today is one of those 50/50 type of days, days when it would be better to just sit on the sidelines.

So be careful.

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1630, 1632, 1635, 1638
Lower Support: 1627, 1625, 1622, 1620, 1615

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1625, 1627, 1629, 1632
Lower Support: 1622, 1620, 1618, 1615, 1612

Trade safe all.

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 10th July 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright. US market closed slightly down. There are no major data tonight. Supports are holding at the moment.

-----

So.. what do you guys think? Yesterday we closed as a doji in the FKLI. The Cash market was just super strong in the face of regional decline. We remained at at the 19 level for most of the day and closed at 20!

I don't know.. for me, that is strength. I am really more inclined to be trading to the upside today. I'm looking for cash to break new highs again... so crazy right? I know! That's what a new high can do to you. People get all enthusiastic about the market and push things higher.

Also I noted something yesterday on the open. The bid-ask spread for the component stocks was very wide. That actually would prevented people from selling the stocks, wouldn't it? so if I see the same thing again today, I would take that as a confirmation of bullish biased.

However, I will also have stops in case price decides to just go to the dumps. Don't want to be caught like a sucker in this crazy market would I?

Ok here are your trading levels.

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1626, 29, 32, 35
Lower Support: 1620, 15, 12, 10, 08

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1620, 23, 25, 29
Lower Support: 1615, 11, 09, 07

Trade safe!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 9th July 2012

Morning Traders,

Firstly, many apologies about the weekend updates.

Perhaps I will stay back today and post it at the end of the evening. I really hope I can save my hard disk though because I have not back up the latest 3 months of data. :(

Alright lets move on and see whats in store for us today.

The US market closed down on Friday. Price did bounce up towards the end to close a bit better from the day's lows.

Alright.. should we break down, I think the 1336 in the S&P should hold. There will be some major numbers this week especially the FOMC coming out this Wednesday.

-----

Alright.. what's in store for our local market?

Would we see a pull back finally? or are we going to see a continuation?

Well, two of these possibilities are in the cards. On one hand, we have got up to quite a high level already. It is possible we might see sellers comeback to take control and for buyers to take some of the profits.

One the other hand. when price are at new highs, the sheer enthusiasm of traders can push prices to unrealistic highs.

So I want to be on the look out for both today. I will also want to see how the cash is doing.

What is possible is that morning we see a slight pull back, then when price trade at support and it holds, then maybe it will go back up again.

I will let price action be my lead today.

Here are your levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1626, 29, 32, 35
Lower Support: 1620, 15, 12, 10, 08

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1620, 23, 25, 29
Lower Support: 1615, 11, 09, 07

Trade safe all!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Weekend updated

Guys, good evening.

My pc's hard disk just crashed..

I'm trying to save the files inside and all now.. Hope I'll be able to do that..

So there will be no weekend updates for this week. I'm posting this from my phone now. All my charts are on my computer.

I'll see you in the morning updates tomorrow in the office. Have a good evening everyone.

Sincerely,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 6th July 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright. The jobs report last night was good but the ISM numbers were disappointing. ECB cut rates and Bank of England increased the size of its qualitative easing with China also cutting rates further. Dow closed down -47 points, Dow down -6 points while Nasdaq closed unchanged.

How do you interpret this? Hmm.. A tough call to be honest. But looking at the market not reacting much to all these following action, I think we need to be careful and not assume good times are ahead. Don't you agree?

So far we have traded in a sideways and slightly upside as expected and I will assume that today won't be that different too. There will be Non-farm employment change tonight. Last month's numbers was the bad one coming out at +69k jobs added only. Analyst estimates for this coming one is 97k jobs added. We will see how the actual numbers come out tonight. Price could go either way depending on the actual numbers.

------

Alright.. as for our local market, we have been making new highs everyday in our futures market. Yesterday we touched a high of 1620. Cash almost touched its new high too.

So what do you think? Think we are going to keep going higher? It is definitely possible.. We are at an all time high for a reason. How much of it is being artificially supported or whether it is from genuine demand, we will never know. But what concerns us is that price is strong and making new highs. I think that it is not wise to go against the trend here.

Unless price spike to unrealistic highs, then I think we can put on a short position. Otherwise, it would all be for scalping only. If price comes down and finds some levels that are being supported, then probably I might look to go long. But considering it is also a Friday, I might just sit it out unless something looks good.

Here are your levels:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1620, 1623, 1625, 1628
Lower Support: 1615, 12, 08, 16, 04

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1615, 17, 19, 21
Lower Support: 1611, 09, 07, 05

So trade safe everyone.

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates -

Morning Traders,

How are you all doing?

Alright I will keep this brief.

We have the non-farm payroll numbers tonight in the US. Last month's numbers came out bad and we sank like a rock if you remember. But that was also near the low print already as we recovered from there to where we are not. We also have the ECB press conference and we will see if there is any interest rate cuts or not. A cut should boost the market up.

-------

In our local market, we are still performing strong. We reached a new high for cash yesterday and also for futures. Regional are all still flat at this moment. Dow is now trading -23 and the S&P is now trading at -3.25.

With so many major data coming out tonight, I'm looking at the possibility that traders are going to take a cautious approach to the market today. I would prefer not to hold any overnight position as the numbers could send the market to either side.

I will probably stick to day trading for today and see what happens after that. With our market trading at new highs, people could get all excited and push things to unrealistic levels and at other times, sellers may come back to take control of the market again.

Here are your trading levels:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1619, 23, 25
Lower Support: 1615, 12, 08, 06, 04

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1615, 17, 19, 21
Lower Support: 1611, 09, 07, 04

Trade safe and be careful.

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 4th July 2012

Morning Traders,

Sorry for the late post today. Hope I'm still in time for the open.

Alright.. US market closed up slightly. It is Independence Day there so there will be no trading in the equity market. Futures will me open till Europe close.

--

We are at new highs. Things can get difficult to see when at new highs. Sometimes, the enthusiasm from traders caused by new highs can push things to an unrealistic levels. Sometimes, sellers step in to take control of the market. Take into consideration that the US market will be closed, I think things are going going to be difficult to read today.

I am actually considering to sit on the sidelines and maybe stick to day trading only and wait for market to resume normal trading tomorrow.

Here are you levels:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1615, 1618, 1620, 1623
Lower Support: 1612, 08, 05, 01, 98

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1609, 11, 13, 15
Lower Support: 1604, 01, 1598

Trade safe!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 3rd July 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright I'm going to do a brief one this morning.

The Dow was down about 60+ when I last checked before going to bed earlier last night. When I woke up, it went back to close at down -9 only. S&P closed positive 3 and Nasdaq closed positive 16 so market closed quite mixed.

I am still of the opinion that the market is in a sideways chop and will continue to hold the view until any significant changes occurs.

------

Alright.. What's in store for us here? the open interest has increased to 36k today from 31k yesterday. Trend line support is at 95 for today. The 20ema is at 90 and the 50ema is at 78.

Would we seen a pull back? Or a continuation? it still remains to be seen. any breakdown should find support at the above levels so no end of the world drop even if we have a pull back.

I would suggest to stick to day trading and not hold any overnight positions. I think there is a possibility that we might see a trading range so if that occurs, be careful not to buy the top and sell the bottom. And if you are trading a breakout, then use a stop limit to place your entry outside the range and make sure the trend is strong enough to take price to your target.

Here are your levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1606, 08, 10, 12, 15
Lower Support: 1601, 1598, 95, 91, 89

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1603, 1605, 1607
Lower Support: 1598, 95, 93 90

Trade safe!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 2nd July 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright lets proceed with the morning updates.

If you haven't read our weekly updates, you can click here.

Dow was up slightly this morning but have now turned negative. Dow futures is now trading at -19 and S&P futures is trading at -1.5, down slightly too. Nikkei is trading up 38.64, which really isn't that much.

We will have some major numbers coming up which includes the non-farm payroll numbers. The 4th of July is this Wednesday so its a banking holiday in the US. With all of these events coming up, I think we are headed into a quieter week so heads up there.

----

Alright.. what do you all think is in store for us in the FKLI?

I don't know.. Last Friday we didn't really see any enthusiasm in the market to push this higher in the afternoon session. I still favor a sideways market as the Daily chart are having overlapping bars. Most likely we will open higher, but would we trade down right after that? Maybe.. so be on the watch out for that. In any case, we can't keep going up if we gap up too much so price might pull back a bit.

There will be support levels here down below in the 90s area so be on the watch out for that. Major support is at 87 and 77 which are the 20ema and the 50ema respectively.

Here are your trading levels:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1604, 1607, 1612, 1615
Lower Support: 1598, 1595, 1591, 1587

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1603, 1605, 1607, 1609, 1612
Lower Support: 1596, 1593, 1591

Trade Safe!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Weekend Updates - 2-6th July 2012 - S&P500, Soybean Oil, Soybean, Wheat and Corn Futures

Good evening traders,

How are you all doing? I'm doing alright here and I hope you're doing fine too where ever you are.

Alright.. lets proceed to see what is in store for us next week.

If you have not read our last week's update, you can click here.

S&P500 Futures - /es

We traded to these following levels last week:

Opened: 1325.50
High: 1359.50
Low: 1302.50
Closed: 1358.25

Our levels for last week was:


Possible Weekly Upper Range: 1354 and 1375 should we break up more.
Possible Weekly Lower Range: 1270

Alright.. Our possible weekly high was 1354 and we were actually quite close. The high made for the week was 1359.50 which was just a few points away so not too bad.

Last week, we mention that the if the sellers want to push this market down, they need to break below the 1313-1300 level convincingly. These support level held nicely as price only made a low of 1302.50 for the week and never had the strength to break below that.

We also said that volatility was trading very low and there was not much fear in the market so an upside probability outweigh the downside for the week so we are right on that count too.

So we closed the week as nice healthy green bar with a moderate tail. Volatility closed at 17 last Friday. What is in store for next week?

Well, I think it is too easy to say that things are nice and rosy and good again after the strong rally. The resulting rally following the EU summit is a good thing and maybe can be considered a nice change in the fundamental aspect of the world economy. Whether we can keep pushing upside remains to be seen.

For me, I prefer to take a sideways to an slightly upside biased market posture for next week. Yes I would look if price can continue upwards. But I will also be careful if it doesn't. If you look at the weekly chart, we are just having overlapping bars so we are really just stuck inside of a sideways market. There is also a possibility we might trade in a small range with the 4th July Banking holiday so be on the look out for that too.

I am still favoring a two sided market market next week. Nothing too bullish for me yet at this moment unless we see more confirmation next week. With the EU summit rally, things could change so you never know until more price plays out so as a prudent trader, we will always keep an eye out and follow where the trend goes even though we might have a bias for the market already.

Here are the possible range for next week:

Possible Weekly Upper Range: 1400
Possible Weekly Lower Range: 1309

Look at our morning updates for more details.

---

Soybean Oil Futures

We traded to these following levels last week:

Opened: 51.30
High: 53.26
Low: 51.21
Closed: 53.18

Our levels for last week was:

Possible upper weekly range is: 52 and 52.70 should we break further.
Possible lower weekly range is: 48.30 and 47 should we break further.

Alright.. Soybean Oil performed better than our expectation. Our upside target was 52.70 highest but we went and exceeded that and made a high of 53.26.

This is good because if we continue to go make higher levels, then perhaps out FCPO will follow suit soon too.

We closed as a nice green bar and I am hoping to see a continuation of these strength. We have broke the upper trend line and have closed back into the triangle pattern.

Alright.. The immediate resistance ahead is the 54 level. I want to see if price can break it and remain above it. If yes, then I would assume that the upside strength is still there. I am putting a higher upside target for next week. Lets see if we can reach there by the end of the week.

We should have some support at the 52 and 51 level if we break down so things are not looking too bad in this commodity.

Here are the levels for next week:

Possible upper weekly range is: 54 first, then to test the 54.86 level, then 55.55 if there is continuation.
Possible lower weekly range is: 52 and 51.10 should we break further.

----

Soybean Futures

We traded to these following levels last week:

Opened: 1399
High: 1439.75
Low: 1392.75
Closed: 1428.75

Our levels for last week was:

The possible upper weekly range is: 1450
The possible lower weekly range is: 1300

Hola.. guessed what happened here? That's right! Nothing.. We are still stick in the sideways market that I have been talking about which is the 1450 and 1300 range. I am looking for price to keep trading within this ranges until further break out occurs. Perhaps a stronger Soybean Oil Futures can pull this contract up? We will see. Until price really breaks above the 1450, then I will assume we will be trading in between the range of 1450 and 1300. If we break above the 1450, the next resistance would be the 1465 and the 1480 level.

Here are the levels for next week:

The possible upper weekly range is: 1450
The possible lower weekly range is: 1350

----

Wheat Futures

We traded to these following levels last week:

Opened: 696.25
High: 763.50
Low: 696.25
Closed: 758.50

Our levels for last week was:

The possible upper weekly range is: 725
The possible lower weekly range is: 650 

Alright.. what a strong performance by Wheat. We said that last week if we can break the 690 level, then we might have a chance for an upside break out. Price opened above the 690 level and traded upwards from there and had a strong rally. We broke above our weekly range to test and break above our second resistance at 753 and actually made a high of 763.50 and closed at 758.50.

So we are now trading firmly above the triangle pattern. This time, the breakout seems genuine and strong so we will take it as what is it. I am looking to see if price can go up to test higher resistance above. When price breaks out of a trading range firmly like this, a continuation is quite likely. But we would also be wise to keep an eye out in case this commodity does the opposite and we would not be caught like a deer in headlights. I think if a pull back occurs, the 725 level should hold.

Here are the levels for next week:

Here are the levels for next week:

The possible upper weekly range is: 834
The possible lower weekly range is: 725

----

Corn Futures

We traded to these following levels last week:

Opened: 570.25
High: 656.75
Low: 570.25
Closed: 634

Our levels for last week was:

Possible upper weekly range: 630
Possible lower weekly range: 542

Alright.. This contract slightly better than we expected. Price exceeded out high range but closed near to our level at 634.

However, from the weekly charts, this contract remains in a sideways chop so there is not much to read into it.

I think there will be quite strong resistance at 665 ahead. I still favor a sideways trading for this contract so we can only follow its intraday movements. 

Here are the levels for next week:

Possible upper weekly range: 665-675
Possible lower weekly range: 591

----

Alright see you all in the morning updates tomorrow! Have a good evening! Ciao!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning delayed updated

Morning traders,

I will be going into the office later so I'll post the updated a bit later.

I don't have the charts with me here but here is just a brief thought before the market opened:

Us closed mildly up, recovered heavy losses during the day.

Fkli trading at near support at 92 for june. Today is Friday so be more careful. If support holds, then maybe you can scalp upwards. If I remember correctly, major support is at 85 and 76.

Be watchful of a downside break out to test these support too!

Trade safe.. :)

I'll post the updates a bit later! Ciao!

Best wishes,
Tech Trader

Mid-day update

Hello Traders,

Wow.. what a reversal!

July gapped up in the morning and went all the way to 1612. Initially I wanted to take profit there and considered turning short. But with the strong Monday rally fresh in my mind, I decided against it and cancelled my order. Price started reversing and took out our break even stop loss at 1601.50.

I did not take any trades after that so I missed the down move. But it is ok. with the Felda listing today, the volume was very low in the morning on the index linked stocks. I think I would rather sit out for today and wait for market to resume normal trading again next week.

I'll come back to update again later if there is anything urgent.

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 28th June 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright lets get on with the show.

The US market closed up after good housing data, up by a decent amount, not a full bull type of a day. I think market still favours sideways to an upside market. But the 50ema is just somewhere up there on the S&P so we need to be watchful for that as well.

We have the EU Economic summit today so I think traders will be cautious until the event is over. I think unemployment claims numbers won't have such a big surprise tonight as well.

------

Alright.. in our local FKLI, I am still long July 1601 from yesterday. I'm not sure how much we will gap up today. If we gap up a lot, then I will take profits, then reposition for price to test the long side again.

You need to be careful to short a strong market here. If the regional market rallies, then our market would take this opportunity to rally further.

Trade safe and watch your levels.

Here are your trading levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1608, 1612, 1615, 1618
Lower Support: 1601, 1598, 1595, 1591

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1605, 1607, 1609, 1611
Lower Support: 1601, 1598, 1595

Bring home the bacon!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 27th June 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright everyone.. the show goes on..

How are you all doing? Wow.. yesterday after my post of absence the market tanked quite hard.. Lets see what's in store for us today.

The US market closed mildly up. At one point, it was trading in the red too. We are looking at some pending home sales tonight which I think won't be too bad and also the EU economic summit tomorrow. I expect trading to remain cautious until at least Friday. Volatility is trading at around 19.70 now so we have a bit of expansion there.

----

As for our local market, the pull back yesterday was a relief. Whether it will continue to fall remains to be seen. But I think there will be quite some strong support at 88-85 (sorry.. earlier typo said support at 98-95 - correction done) level so you need to be careful.

July is trading at a much higher level so traders are quite bullish in this market at this moment.

I am thinking to see how price react once it test these support. If price are holding, I am looking for price to go back up to test the highs in the coming days. So trade safe. Keep in mind of the EU economic summit tomorrow too. It is better to reduce trading size or just on the side lines until further confirmation.

I'm hoping to see price test the support and if it can't break, I will go long from there. Watch your levels carefully.

Here are your trading levels:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1593, 1596, 1598, 1601
Lower Support: 1590, 1587, 1585, 1583, 1580

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1596, 1598, 1600, 1604
Lower Support: 1592, 1590, 1587, 1585

Trade safe everyone.

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

On Leave

Morning guys,

The Tech Trader will be on 1 day medical leave.. Many apologies for that..

I'm looking at the daily range and its a small one too.. so there is not much to trade so we didn't miss much..

So.. We'll be back in action again tomorrow.. see you then!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 25th June 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright lets get started.

US market closed up mildly which was about the premarket level for last Friday.

Currently, the Dow is down about -50 points and the S&P is down about -6 points.

There will be some support levels down here the first one being the 1313 level on the Daily which is the 200ema on the S&P and then the 1303 level on the Weekly as we have the 50ema there.

----

In our local market, the sentiments remain bullish. Our futures have broke all time highs and our cash is just shy by about less than a point.

The trend remains on the upside for me. However, I think we might pull back a bit more before continuing moving up again.

Honestly, looking to sell is quite scary at this point. But I think a scalp here and there should be alright. I will close the shorts and turn long should the support levels hold nicely.

Watch your levels and trade accordingly.

Here are your trading levels:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1609, 1612, 1615, 1618
Lower Support: 1604, 1601, 1598, 1595, 1591

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1604, 1609, 1611, 1613
Lower Support: 1601, 1598, 1595, 1592

Trade safe and I'll come back to update the charts a bit later! ciao!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Weekend Updates - 25th - 29th June 2012

Evening Traders,

How was your weekend? Mine was relaxing and getting ready for next week. I hope everyone had a great one over there.

Alright lets proceed with the upcoming outlook on the market.

S&P 500 Futures - /es

We traded to these following levels this week:

Opened: 1345.25
High: 1357
Low: 1317.50
Closed: 1325.50

Our levels for last week was:

Possible Weekly Upper Range: 1375
Possible Weekly Lower Range: 1270

Last week we mention that it was a tough call on the direction of the market and with all the uncertainty on the macro-economic level, things are more likely to move sideways and a two sided market was likely. Well, I would consider that we were right on all counts. But the down move took a bit of help by the banking downgrade by Moody tho.

We also mention that if price wants to break up, it needs to break and close above the 50s level resistance with conviction which it couldn't for two days and only made a high of 57. With this failure to break above, sellers took the opportunity to sell down with the banking downgrade on Thursday. But you can see that the down move was just a knee jerk reaction to the downgrade as there was no follow through on Friday.

So, what can we look forward to next week?

Lets look at some of the levels.

On the Daily, the 1313 level which is the 200ema should provide some level of support. On the weekly, we have the 50ema on the 1300 level. If the sellers want to take back the initiative of this market, they need to push below these level of 1313-1300 convincingly and close below it for the week.

Personally, I think we are still being caught in a sideways market here. Every sell down would be be held at support while every push up will be contained with resistance. I see us trading within these ranges of 1350 and 1250 for a while more.

But take note that volatility is at about 18.11 as of Friday's close. That basically means that there is not that much fear in the market as of this moment. With the vol so low, the upside probability outweighs the downside, unless, we see more volatility expansion in the coming weeks. So we will follow this closely as well.

Here are the probably ranges for next week:


Possible Weekly Upper Range: 1354 and 1375 should we break up more.
Possible Weekly Lower Range: 1270

Look to our daily morning updates for the latest read on the market.

----

Lets move on the the grains.

Soybean Oil

We traded to these levels last week:

Opened: 49.05
High: 51.12
Low: 48.51
Closed: 50.46

Our levels for last week was:

Possible upper weekly range is: 52
Possible lower weekly range is: 47

Alright.. price was trading within our expected range for this week. We expected for price to trade sideways and price is still trading within our expectation. Price also closed below the 50 level at 50.46 although we pulled back quite a bit from the high of 51.12. If you would look at the charts from last week, you would see that the 51.14 resistance horizontal like that I drew on the chart.

On the chart, we are basically trading sideways with attempts to push up but which failed. Seems like the resistance overhead is still quite heavy, don't you think so? With Soybean gaping down last Friday, I am concerned that Soybean Oil's price will be dragged along with it.

When price are trading in a sideways range, it is much harder to predict its movements because the very nature of a sideways range is choppiness. For me, with the week closing with a green bar, I would like to think that price would resume its right to test above resistance.

The resistance to test would be the 51.14, then the 52 levels. If price can break those levels, the third resistance would be at the 52.70 level. On the downside, I think the 48 level should hold if a break down occurs. In any case, I don't think price would break below the 47 level which is the 200ema which I think should hold nicely.

We will follow the price action of this commodity daily for a more accurate and updated readings.

Here are the levels for next wee

Possible upper weekly range is: 52 and 52.70 should we break further.
Possible lower weekly range is: 48.30 and 47 should we break further.

----

Soybean Futures

We traded to these following levels last week:

Opened: 1383
High: 1456.50
Low: 1364.50
Closed: 1372.50

Our levels for last week was:

The possible upper weekly range is: 1450
The possible lower weekly range is: 1300

Alright.. price of this commodity also traded within our expectation. We said that the 1450 would be very strong resistance level. Lo and behold, price tested a high of 1456.50 and could not go any further.

Then on Friday, price gaped down big time. We are now trading in the mid level of 1450 and 1300. I still expect price to be choppy within these ranges. So we will let price run its course until a further break out occurs. There really isn't much to read into a sideways market. No interesting story. Just a dull up and down within a range and in this case, the range is 1450 and 1300.

Here are the levels for next week:

The possible upper weekly range is: 1450
The possible lower weekly range is: 1300

----

Wheat Futures

We traded to these following levels last week:

Opened: 613.50
High: 700
Low: 612
Closed: 687

Our levels for last week was:

The possible upper weekly range is: 685
The possible lower weekly range is: 585

Wow.. another big green bar in Wheat. But price closed right at the upper triangle trend line although it did briefly trade outside it for a while. In fact, it was a big gap up on Friday due to the Wheat data. I'm just wondering how much further can price continue to push upwards. The last time we closed with a big green bar, we tested the first level of resistance before turning back downwards into the choppy range again.

The levels to break would be the 690 where the upper trend line is. If we can maintain and close next week above this level, then we might have a chance of an upside breakout. If we have a continuation, we might go up to test the 725 level again.

We will see how this commodity performs next week.  

Here are the levels for next week:

The possible upper weekly range is: 725
The possible lower weekly range is: 650


----

Corn Futures

We traded to these following levels last week:

Opened: 584.75
High: 617
Low: 576.25
Closed: 590.25

Our levels for last week was:

Possible upper weekly range: 640
Possible lower weekly range: 542

The price of this commodity is trading within our range too. Price remains in a sideways market as expected and I think this will continue for a while more.

There isn't much to be read from the charts for now. Prices are just trading within a range and look to continuing to doing that for a while more.

So not much can be derived from it other than following its intra-day price action.

Here are the levels for next week:

Possible upper weekly range: 630
Possible lower weekly range: 542

---

See you all in the morning updates! Ciao and good night!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Midday Update

Afternoon traders,

Wow.. what a morning..

I short right at the open at 99 and the thing drop to 96 and never went down lower. In fact, it shot right back up!

I manage to cut loss at 61 and 62 level and turned long there right up till 1606.50. I wish I had held the trade, but I'm just happy that I recovered the losses with a nice margin of profit for the day.

So I'm flat for now and am waiting to see what happens in the afternoon. This market is really crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes up higher still.

So trade safe everyone.

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

22th June 2012 - Morning Updates

Morning Traders,

Wow.. Us market tanked last night after the banking downgrade.

I have no position at this moment but I am looking to sell right off at the open.

However, bear in mind that there will be support levels below here in the S&P as well.

In the FKLI, there will also be support levels below and a trend line at 85 which will act as strong resistance.   The 20ema is at 78 and the 50ema is at 71 which will both act as support so an end of the world drop is still not in the cards yet so you need to be careful.

I have no over night shorts but its ok. I hope the trend continues and I can ride along with it for today.

Here are your levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1601, 1604,
Lower Support: 1598, 1595, 1591, 1587, 1585, 1580

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1601, 1605
Lower Support: 1596, 1590, 1587, 1585, 1580

Trade safe and all the best!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 21th June 2012

Morning Traders,

Ok apologies for this morning. Was in a big rush here in the office.

Alright. I'll keep this brief.

There was no new QE3 from Bernanke, but he extended the Operation Twist. But he also gave assurance that the Feds are ready to take action should the labour market be weak.

That is essentially saying that he will be supporting the economy and thus the market should it falls doesn't it? But I think you still need to be careful because this is too obvious. Let price action guide you.

In the S&P, we closed as a doji last night and could not break the high of 1356 yet. A doji also means that there is balance between buyers and sellers for yesterday.

Regional is quite mixed this morning. Nikkei is up, Hang Seng is down slightly, Singapore and Shanghai is down too.

For our local market, I haven't established any position yet.

If price come down to a level and support is holding, I am looking to buy and see if we are going to test new high and also if the regional is confirming to my views. Otherwise, if price seems like it is going to sink to kingdom come and go back to test the 20ema near the 80s level, then I might try a break out trade by using a stop order.

Here are your levels for today.

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1609, 1611, 1615, 1618
Lower Support: 1604, 1601, 1598

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1609, 1611, 1613, 1615
Lower Support: 1601, 1598, 1596

Trade safe safe all.

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Morning updated - 20th June 2013

Morning traders,

I'll keep this brief.

The US market closed up.

We have FOMC for the next two days. All will be looking to see if we have new stimulus for the economy.

In the FKLI, we are trading at near all time high. There is a chance we might break there today so be on the look out.

If they open this just a bit higher, the market may rally if the regional does do too especially the Dow. Dow is now down about 30 as of now so be careful.

I have no position on and will see how the levels are holding later.

Trade safe.. 

Here are the levels today:

FKLI:

Upper Resistance: 1602, 1604, 1607, 1610
Lower Support:  1598, 1595, 1593, 1591, 1589, 1587

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1598, 1600, 1602, 1604, 1609
Lower Support: 1595, 1592, 1590, 1587

19th June 2012 - Morning Updates

Morning Traders,

I will keep this brief.

US market closed mixed last night. It was down by quite a bit but recovered most of the losses but did not regain the high made in the premarket.

There is still the G20 meeting today and the FOMC coming up too.

I think it is possible we will remain in a two sided market again today so you need to be cautious. but remain watchful for possible signs of a break out.

In our FKLI, the market has yet to break the 68s level so the trend remains on the upside for now. There sill be support from the 75 right up to 70s level so you need to be careful if you are shorting.

I will stick to day trading for now and then decide whether I will hold any positions overnight at the end of the day.

Look for support and resistance levels to hold before taking your positions. If you are trading the breakout, make sure that there is enough strength in the market to bring price to your target.

Here are your levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1583, 1585, 1588, 1590, 1592
Lower Support: 1580, 1577, 1575, 1572, 1570

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1584, 1586, 1588
Lower Support: 1582, 1580, 1578, 1576

Apologies..

Good evening traders,

Many apologies as I had internet problem today and couldn't complete the morning update. I used my phone to take a photo of the levels and just posted it there so I hope that helped.

Price is now trading at support and lets see how the US market closed tonight. If not down significantly, and if the support holds tomorrow, I am thinking long would be a good day trade.

The morning updates will resume normally tomorrow onwards.

Once again, many apologies for the internet issues today..

Ciao and take care!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

18th morning update

Guys, I have Internet problem.. I'll come back to update again later..

Best wishes,
Tech Trader

18th - 22nd June 2012 - Weekend Updates - S&P 500, Soybean Oil, Soybean, Wheat and Corn Futures

Good evening traders,

How is your weekend so far? I hope everyone had a good one and wishing a Happy Fathers Day to all the daddies out there. Gosh I miss my family.

Alright lets move on to business.

In last weekend's update, we said that we are now entering into a sideways market and we were right. It was quite tough to grind out profits in the local market but we had a positive week nonetheless. I'm just glad the triple-witching is over and we can now resume back to normal trading until the next cycle 3 months from now.


This week looks like it is going to be another tough ride so be forewarned. We have the Greece crisis, G20 meeting, FOMC, and a host of other important data on the US economy. Alright lets hit the charts.


S&P 500 Futures - /es

We traded to these following levels last week:

Opened: 1337
High: 1342
Low: 1297
Closed: 1338.25

Our levels for last week was:

Possible Weekly Upper Range: 1355 and a small outside chance to touch 1374 if we have good news.
Possible Weekly Lower Range: 1240 and a small outside chance to test 1220 should we break down further.

If you haven't read our last week's update, you can click here.

Last week, we said that we are entering into a sideways market and we were right. The weekly bar closed as a sort of a dragonfly doji looking bar. This basically signifies a balance between buyers and sellers as the opening and closing price are very close to each other. We also said that the 1336-1350 area are very strong resistance area and we never went beyond the 50 level and closed at 1338.50.

On the daily chart, you can actually see an inverted head and shoulders forming and last Friday's up push actually is going to test the neck line of the pattern. We will see if price can break the neck line and whether a rally follows or will there be further sideways price action.

On the daily chart, we have just closed above the 50ema. Should we continue to trade above the 50ema, then perhaps price might have a good chance to go back up to higher levels of resistance. Of course, all of these also depends on what is happening on the macro-economic level too including what unfolds our of the euro zone crisis.

On the weekly chart, the closing price for this contract is just above the 22ema. For price to go up, we need to be trading above this ema and break through the 1350s level with conviction. Therefore, we will be following price closely to see if we can do that, and if not, then we will trade the failure accordingly.

Its a tough call on what the direction of the market is. A high probability is that we remain in a sideways market for a while more. It is tempting to say that things are looking good and the charts are pointing upwards after last week's rally back from the low. But with so much uncertainty in the market now internationally, I think the market will be trading cautious and I don't think that people will be going hands down and fully invested in such market so I think a two sided market is likely.

Look to our morning updates for the latest tidbits.

Here are the probable range for next week:

Possible Weekly Upper Range: 1375
Possible Weekly Lower Range: 1270

----

Lets move on to the CME grains that we are tracking.

----

Soybean Oil Futures

We traded to these following levels last week:

Opened: 49.55
High: 50.38
Low: 47.76
Closed: 48.60

Our levels for last week was:

Possible upper weekly range is: 52
Possible lower weekly range is: 47

So traders, what do you think about this commodity?

Last week's green bar gave some hope to the buyers but we were not able to push up through the resistance. Last week, we mention that if price wants to go up, it needs to push beyond the 50s level preferably above the 52 level and close above around the 50s levels for a positive confirmation that the buyers are in this fight. We did go up to test the 50.38 level but could not overcome it and close at 48.60, which is below our 50 level criteria.

So, the question is, what is up for next week?

If you look on the weekly chart, we are basically just chopping sideways between the range of 50s and 47s. That is basically a consolidation pattern. Which is a good thing because price has at least halted its sharp decline since April. With last week's inability to push up, I think we are headed to further sideways price action until a break out occurs.

Any break down from here should be met with support from the 200ema level of 47 and the lower major trend line at 45. Any break up should be met with a host of resistance as well.

We will follow this commodity closely and look at where price eventually breaks out and that would give us a hint on where our FCPO is headed too.

Here are the weekly ranges for next week:

Possible upper weekly range is: 52
Possible lower weekly range is: 47

-----

Soybean Futures

We traded to these following levels this week:

Opened: 1426
High: 1449.25
Low: 1372.75
Closed: 1379.75

Our levels for last week was:

The possible upper weekly range is: 1480
The possible lower weekly range is: 1330

Last week we mention that we wanted to see if price would test the 1450 level and is yes, whether it could break above it to test the next resistance area.

Price did go up to test the 1450 area and made a high of 1449.25, but could go no further.

We then traded down and close near the lows of the week at 1379.25.

I want to highlight that 1450 and 1300 is the choppy zone for this commodity for almost two third of the beginning of last year. I am looking to see if price would go back to being choppy in this 1450-1300 level just like before since we are now already trading in this range.

As for next week, the 1450 remains the resistance to break should we push upwards. With no continuation of last week's strong performance, I'm afraid we are looking for this contract to be trading sideways in this range too.

We will follow price closely and let the market runs its course.

Here are the weekly range for next week:

The possible upper weekly range is: 1450
The possible lower weekly range is: 1300

----

Wheat Futures

Price traded to these following levels last week:

Opened: 629.25
High: 642.25
Low: 607.50
Closed: 612.50

Our levels for last week was:

The possible upper weekly range is: 680
The possible lower weekly range is: 591

Price for this commodity continues to be consolidating so there is not much that can be derived from it at this moment until a decisive break out occurs. Price for this contract is also trading sideways and is within our expected range.

Any break down would be met with support and any break up will be met with resistance as well. There really isn't much that we can get out of this chart at this moment other than following its intra-day price action.

Here are the weekly range for next week:


The possible upper weekly range is: 685
The possible lower weekly range is: 585

----

Corn Futures

This commodity traded to these following levels this week:

Opened: 598.50
High: 608.50
Low: 575.50
Closed: 583.25

Our levels for last week was:

Possible upper weekly range: 640 and an outside chance to touch 660 if we rally further.
Possible lower weekly range: 542


The price of this commodity also traded within our range for this week.

Essentially, we are now trading sideways and back into the choppy range too. Not much trend could be derived from the charts until we move out of this sideways chop. Any break down should be met with support at the 200ema level at about 542 area.

So we can just use the intra-day price action for this commodity for our FCPO trading purposes.

Here are the levels for next week.

Possible upper weekly range: 640
Possible lower weekly range: 542

----

That's all folks. See you all in the daily updates.

Ciao and take care!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

15th June 2012 - Morning Updates

Morning Traders,

Alright.. The choppiness continues again! The US market closed up last night with the Dow notching up a 156 points gain while the S&P gained 14 points.

Amazing how the world doesn't really care about Greece isn't it?

Alright.. today would be the Triple-Witching Friday and things are going to get really freaking choppy in the US market. But after today, I hope that we would resume normal trading starting next week.

Lets just grit our teeth and try to make it through today with some gains.

-------

Lets move on to our local market.

Alright.. firstly, I shall disclose my position before we dissect the market. Yesterday I was short with the average of 72.75, but I have no idea why I got spooked out and close the contracts with a small loss at 73.50. I really wanted to short yesterday which I had updated in the morning update.

Towards the end, I am holding another short, not at a great entry, at 68, which I think is going to suffer a bit later as I think we might possibly gap up.

The question I have in my mind is that, should I cover at the open right off the bat? I have not decided yet.. so we will see later..

Alright lets move on to the charts..

We close below the 70 level yesterday but could not break the 65 level I spoke about yesterday so the trend remains up for now. It still amazes me how the market just doesn't care about Grexit! lol..

Also, we will have a host of important meetings such as the G20 next week and I believe the FOMC also.

I think market would remain in a range bound trading so just be aware.

As for today, I think the best you can do is just sit on the sidelines and don't trade especially if you are a new trader. Otherwise, maybe just day trade and scalp for profits. I have not considered if I would hold a position over the weekend yet as of now. I think the best thing to do is to go into the weekend flat. The rest is up to you.

Here are your levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1575, 1577, 1580, 1583, 1585
Lower Support: 1570, 1565, 1562, 1558

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1573, 1576, 1578, 1580, 1582
Lower Support: 1569, 1566, 1563, 1558

Trade safe everyone.. better yet, just don't trade for today.. :)


Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

14th June 2012 - Morning Updates

Morning Traders,

How are you all doing?

Alright the choppiness continues! We have expected this week to be a sideways and choppy market and it has been so far. If you haven't read our weekend updates, you can click here.

The US market closed down slightly. The question I have in my mind is that, are we going to continue to go sideways from today right into the weekend? If we can guess this question right, then we can position ourself to take advantage of the upcoming events.

I am thinking of further sideways to a possible downside. What do you think?

------

The local market has been choppy and a junk to trade this week. Market is just trading within a small range so far but cash could not break the 80s level yet.

I don't know about you. With the Greece election coming up soon, I think things favor a sideways to a downside market for this coming two days.

But we need to break the 65 level for the FKLI and the 70 level for cash as both of this support will hold this market up if we can't break it.

But if we break those levels, then I think a nice down swing could be in the cards.

As for today, I am looking to maybe just day trade or maybe even hold a short and close my eyes.

We will see how we opens later.

Here are your levels for today:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1575, 1577, 1580, 1583
Lower Support: 1569, 1567, 1565, 1560, 1558

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1580, 1582, 1584
Lower Support: 1573, 1570, 1566, 1563

Trade safe everyone.

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

13th June 2012 - Morning Updates

Morning Traders,

How is everyone doing? Alright lets get started!

The US market closed up last night - Dow by 163 points and S&P by 15 points. Europe also all closed up. We are now back to last Friday's level . Choppy isn't it? That's what triple-witching can do to the market. Expect more choppiness up to this Friday.

I don't have much time today so I will give you the levels first and maybe come back and complete this post later.

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1577, 80, 83, 85, 87, 89, 91
Lower Support: 1572, 69, 65

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1578, 80, 82, 85, 87
Lower Support: 1573, 68, 60


-Updates- 9.11am

Alright.. made my coffee, and watching this slow market now..

I think we will resume the choppy market right up till this Friday. I am still looking for a bias to trade as for now and have no position on.

I think with the Greece election and all coming up this Sunday, I think the market would not rally too enthusiastic, don't you think?

I think I will just stick to day trading and take quick profits until the market resumes normal trading next week. So trade safe and don't make any unnecessary donations to Mr Market here. Bring home the bacon!


Trade Safe!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

12th June 2012 - Morning Updates

Morning Traders,

Firstly, million apologies as I couldn't get this out before the market opened today..

I'm in a rush so trade safe.

Here are your trading levels:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1575, 1580, 1583, 1585, 1587, 1589
Lower Support: 1570, 1565, 1562, 1560, 1558

Cash Index

Upper Resistance: 1580, 1582, 1585
Lower Support: 1576, 1573, 1570, 1566

I have no position as of now. Last night US market drop, but I think that it is not so serious as we gaped up and we just gave back the gains of Friday.

This week is triple witching week so trade safe.

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Updated - Charts

Hello Traders,

Wow.. what a gap up and a push up! I manage to sell with an average price near the highs and have taken my profits at 81 now. Time to sit back and wait for the next set up.

Here are the charts for today.

FKLI

Cash Index

Trade safe!

Best Wishes,

Tech Trader

Morning Updates - 11th June 2012

Morning Traders,

Alright.. just a brief one and I will come back to update the charts a bit later.

The US market closed up last Friday and futures are also now opened much higher. Dow futures are now opened 131 points and the S&P is now trading up 14.25 points as of now.

I think this is mostly due to Spain's requesting the aid for its banking crisis issue. However, price is now trading exactly at 1336 in the S&P which is a resistance point so be aware. Price may still go up further later tonight, or it may come back down so you need to follow price action and not just jump into a trade.

-------

Alright.. lets try to look at the market objectively.

If you were long over the weekend, you would be a very happy camper now. If you were short, I think the last thing you want to see on a Monday morning is a big gap up.

If you haven't read our weekly updates, you can click here. 1

From the charts, it looks like sideways market so I think there will be two sided trading this week. I think it will be harder to hold positions overnight so you need to be careful.

As of now, I will be looking to scalp and day trade only. I will update again later if I have held any position overnight.

Here are your trading levels:

FKLI

Upper Resistance: 1575, 1580, 1583, 1585, 1588, 1591
Lower Support: 1569, 1565, 1562, 1558

Cash Indes

Upper Resistance: 1573, 1576, 1580, 1582, 1584, 1587, 1590
Lower Support: 1568, 1566, 1560, 1558

Trade safe everyone!

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader

Weekend Updates - 11th - 15th June 2012

Good evening traders,

How are you all doing? I hope all is good and well on your side too! :)

Alright lets do a brief summary and we will then proceed with the upcoming week.

For FKLI, this week we made really some big gains. We held short over the last weekend and Monday we opened and gaped down significantly after we reacted to the US marker closing heavy down. On Tuesday, the market opened higher which caused me to take my profit for the shorts. On Wednesday, I watch the price action and it seemed that price was going to go higher ala Malaysia-boleh style. So I went long and was right. I took profit near the high at the end of the day, then re-enter to establish some overnight longs. On Thursday, we opened significantly higher and I closed my longs profits at 81. We made more than 35 points per contract just for this week alone. On Friday, I tried to short at 66.50 but price could not break 65 level so I closed it at 66 and just sat on hand for the rest of the day. A well deserved rest for a good week. :)

Lets look at the S&P now.

After closing almost heavy down the previous Friday, Monday traded to a spinning top doji sort of pattern which basically pause the decline on the market, which was a good thing in a way. Tuesday we had an up day and closed about 5 points above Monday's high. This was sort of a confirmation that the buyers was still pretty much in the game at this point. Wednesday's rally was a real shocker for everyone. I'm not complaining as I was long in our local market, but still, the amount we rallied gave me a surprised. Thursday traded to another doji as price was not able to close above the 22ema. Friday was a two sided market as futures was down pretty much throughout the whole day in pre-market trading but closed at the high of the day in the end.

----------

Lets move on to see what's in store for us this week.
S&P 500 futures - /es

We traded to these following levels this week:

Opened: 1275
High: 1329.50
Low: 1262
Closed: 1323

Our levels for last week was:

Possible Weekly Upper Range: 1318
Possible Weekly Lower Range: 1220 and an outside chance to touch 1200.

Alright.. after closing down real heavy last week, this was the largest gaining week in 2012! So almost officially, we have just entered into a sideways market. Last week, I was hoping that price would continue to go down, but also warned that we are fast approaching the consolidation area of last year which would quite a strong support level so price wont be falling through the floor unless there are strong news and reason. You can click here if you haven't read our updates for last week.

So on the weekly chart, you are just going to see the overlapping bars - up one week, down the next and on and on for a month now. We are going to have many events this month including the Greece election so we will be on the look out for that.

On the Monthly chart, you will see that the 22ema is still holding pretty nicely and price is still trading firmly above it.

Now the hardest market to trade in my opinion is a sideways market. The difficulty mostly lies in trying to identify the trading range for the week. Once that is done, and if right, then the jobs becomes easy. In a trading range, you would avoid buying the top and selling the bottom and look to fade these extremes if the support and resistance are holding.

I would be careful going into next week and consider to soh (sit-on-hand) or reduce position size until the trend has been determined and maybe just stick to day trading. It is tough to hold over night in a sideways market so we will see what unfolds and trade accordingly.

Should we push up more, I think the 50ema at around the 1336 to 1350 area should be area of resistance. And if we break down further, there will still be a lot of support levels below with the 1224-1220 being the major ones. I see no clear trend for now and would look to assume we are entering a consolidation phase until a clear signal is given.

So trade safe and look for our daily updates for more info.

Here are the probable range for next week:

Possible Weekly Upper Range: 1355 and a small outside chance to touch 1374 if we have good news.
Possible Weekly Lower Range: 1240 and a small outside chance to test 1220 should we break down further.

p/s: It feels kind of hard to pin-points the range for a sideways market so I'm giving a larger range for us to work with. Please look at our morning updates for the updated outlook on the market.

-------------

Soybean Oil Futures

We traded to these following levels this week:

Opened: 48.91
High: 50.39
Low: 47.81
Closed: 49.42

Our levels for last week was:

Possible upper weekly range is: 51
Possible lower weekly range is: 47 and an outside chance to touch 45 should we break further.

Price for this contract traded between our projected range for this week. Last week we mention that we already had 8 weeks worth of red bars and according to Fibs theory, the next bar has a high probability of being a green one and halt the decline although the trend was clearly down. Well, surprise surprise! We did in fact have a green bar! haha.. The credit goes to Mr Fibonacci's theory and Mr Conrad for teaching it to us in that candle stick class.

Alright lets get back to the serious stuff. Last week we mention that the 48.30 levels is very crucial and the buyers will need to defend this level if they want price to stop decline. On Monday and Tuesday, we traded at that level for a long time and was able to push away from it decisively on Wednesday to test the upper resistance. We continued to push up to test the 50.34 resistance on the chart but could not over come it and subsequently pulled back on Friday to close at 49.42.

Now, what I want to indicate here is that, although we pushed up significantly and broke the down trend line, but pulled back to close below the trend line, that very act of pushing above was a very good statement by the buyers that they are still in the game at this point.

I think there is the possibility that buyers are going to start coming back from here on to give the sellers a good fight. With Soybean rallying hard last week, that is going to give this commodity an upside pull as well. It still remains to be seen how committed the buyers are and if the sellers are still in control of this market here. We will follow this commodity closely as the price changes will effect our FCPO also.

I would like to see if price can go back up to test the 52 area and close somewhere above the 50s preferably. If yes, that would be a positive development for the longs and hopefully, for our FCPO longs too. Should we break down further, the 200ema will give some measure of support. 

Here are the levels for next week:

Possible upper weekly range is: 52
Possible lower weekly range is: 47

--------

Soybean Futures

We traded to these following levels last week:

Opened: 1350
High: 1439
Low: 1331.50
Closed: 1425

Our levels last week was:

The possible upper weekly range is: 1415
The possible lower weekly range is: 1300 and an outside chance to touch 1275 should we break further.

Alright.. Wow.. This commodity really performed really well beyond our expectation. The high of the week went way above the 1415 we were looking at.

Last week, we mention that there will be support levels below so all was not lost. We also talk about the possibility of price bouncing and trading between the 1450-1300 range in the coming days. So here we are. We are very close to the 1450 area already.

But I want to highlight that price close at 1425, which is just right outside of the upper triangle pattern which is about the 1415 level which is also a resistance area. Price needs to remain above this level if it is to retest the recent highs. A failure to remain above this level could see things deteriorate once again.

I'm looking to see if price can test the 1450 level and if yes, if it can retest the 1480 level. I'm hoping for a strong performance in this commodity so that it can also pull up the prices of the other grains product.

I'm going to give a larger range for this week as things are at a transition phase so it is not as easy to determine the trading range.

Please look at our daily morning updates for more accurate daily outlook if there are significant movements.

Here are the trading levels for next week:

The possible upper weekly range is: 1480
The possible lower weekly range is: 1330

------

Wheat Futures

We traded to these following levels this week:

Opened: 620.25
High: 644.75
Low: 611.75
Closed: 629

Our trading levels for last week was:

The possible upper weekly range is: 690
The possible lower weekly range is: 591 and an outside chance to touch 576

Price for wheat traded within our weekly range, which basically means that price did nothing and is still trading within the choppy zone. And it seems likely to continue doing that for a while more until there is a decisive break out from this choppy zone. You can just tell by looking at all the overlapping bars in the chart above.

So not much indication can be derived for this commodity other than using it for intra-day indication.

I see prices to remain in this chop zone for a while more. If we break down further, I think the support levels will hold and if we break up, the resistance above will likely hold too.

So, nothing much here.

Here are the levels for next week:

The possible upper weekly range is: 680
The possible lower weekly range is: 591

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Corn Futures

We traded to these levels last week:

Opened: 560.25
High: 605.50
Low: 557.75
Closed: 597.75

Our levels for last week was:

Possible upper weekly range: 635
Possible lower weekly range: 529-519 area and 507 should we break down further.

Alright.. price of corn halted its decline after breaking down from the recent lows. We bounced back into the choppy range above once again. Take note that we are still trading below the triangle pattern.

I'm hoping that Soybean would perform strongly so that it can pull this contract and also Soybean Oil up too which will also caused FCPO to bounce back up.

This week's up move in Corn was a welcomed one because a further decline would just make things worst for all grains product generally.

So we will follow this contract closely and see how it unfolds next week.

Here are the levels for next week:

Possible upper weekly range: 640 and an outside chance to touch 660 if we rally further.
Possible lower weekly range: 542

-----

Wow.. what a tough week to read the chart. There are just no clear cut trends so it feels like things are going to move sideways for a bit which will mean a two sided trading.

So trade safe and we will keep you updated should there be any big movements.

Take care and see you in the morning updates.

Best Wishes,
Tech Trader